{ "version": "1.0.0", "cutoff": "2026-10-20T15:20:15+02:00", "election_date": "2026-10-24", "deadline": "2026-10-21T23:59:00+02:00", "rule": "single-round-plurality", "interval": "marginal central 80 percent predictive interval", "draws_per_race": 50000, "seed": 20261020, "status": "locked", "races": [ { "id": "city-bratislava", "name": "Bratislava", "category": "city", "candidates": [ { "id": "city-bratislava-1", "name": "Ľubomír Geci", "ballot": 1, "party": "Myslovensko", "job": "softvérový vývojár", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 4.891828260535346, "low80_pct": 1.655080869373392, "high80_pct": 9.346433105940214, "win_probability": 0.0, "fundamental_pct": 13.015551920203109, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06218, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-bratislava-2", "name": "Miroslav Heredoš", "ballot": 2, "party": "Vlastenecký blok", "job": "podnikateľ", "active": false, "event_source": "https://hnonline.sk/volby-2026/komunalne-volby-2026/96304578-miroslav-heredos-po-vaznych-zdravotnych-problemoch-odstupuje-z-kandidatury-na-post-primatora-bratislavy", "estimate_pct": 0, "low80_pct": 0, "high80_pct": 0, "win_probability": 0, "fundamental_pct": 0, "fundamental_win_probability": 0 }, { "id": "city-bratislava-3", "name": "Jozef Ráž", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "minister", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 35.544590681983664, "low80_pct": 28.36468474268264, "high80_pct": 43.063445490763634, "win_probability": 0.05346, "fundamental_pct": 25.400163074150328, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.2011, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-bratislava-4", "name": "Zuzana Šubová", "ballot": 4, "party": "Pirátska strana - Slovensko", "job": "ekonómka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 5.927006654602865, "low80_pct": 2.4394934497530825, "high80_pct": 10.480300905001322, "win_probability": 0.0, "fundamental_pct": 13.015551920203109, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06096, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-bratislava-5", "name": "Matúš Vallo", "ballot": 5, "party": "Team Bratislava; Progresívne Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati", "job": "primátor", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 53.636574402878125, "low80_pct": 45.70403718841895, "high80_pct": 61.64353856908588, "win_probability": 0.94654, "fundamental_pct": 48.56873308544345, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.67576, "previous_pct": 60.20029622247138 }, { "id": "city-bratislava-6", "name": "Martin Winkler", "ballot": 6, "party": "Dunaj", "job": "manažér, ekonóm", "active": false, "event_source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-krajske-mesta/", "estimate_pct": 0, "low80_pct": 0, "high80_pct": 0, "win_probability": 0, "fundamental_pct": 0, "fundamental_win_probability": 0 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "ixactly-ba", "effective_n": 81.22523963562355, "withdrawn_mass": 0.13786213786213788 } ], "concentration": 80, "transfer_mass": 0.129867834892107, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [ "Časť meranej podpory je neistá pre odstúpenia alebo nerozhodnutých. Presun je modelový scenár, nie nameraný prechod voličov." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-stare-mesto", "name": "Bratislava - Staré Mesto", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-stare-mesto-1", "name": "Zuzana Aufrichtová", "ballot": 1, "party": "Krajina; Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie; Konzervatívci - kresťanská únia; Nova", "job": "architektka, urbanistka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 18.876190603830583, "low80_pct": 2.947964689611903, "high80_pct": 39.75102926052411, "win_probability": 0.1286, "fundamental_pct": 18.876190603830583, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.13298, "previous_pct": 22.236868121004417 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-stare-mesto-2", "name": "Petra Hitková", "ballot": 2, "party": "Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti", "job": "podpredsedníčka samosprávneho kraja, vysokoškolská pedagogička", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 24.239003300021636, "low80_pct": 5.502255243178498, "high80_pct": 47.46105628577277, "win_probability": 0.20882, "fundamental_pct": 24.239003300021636, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.20884, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-stare-mesto-3", "name": "Matej Vagač", "ballot": 3, "party": "Progresívne Slovensko; Team Bratislava; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 41.86606295369434, "low80_pct": 17.733388283385626, "high80_pct": 67.57163873074332, "win_probability": 0.57278, "fundamental_pct": 41.866062953694346, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.5702, "previous_pct": 50.3064654320174 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-stare-mesto-4", "name": "Miroslav Vetrík", "ballot": 4, "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia; Hlas - sociálna demokracia; Slovenská národná strana; Život - národná strana", "job": "podnikateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 15.018743142453438, "low80_pct": 1.5647584974423046, "high80_pct": 34.47602582202327, "win_probability": 0.0898, "fundamental_pct": 15.018743142453438, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08798, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-podunajske-biskupice", "name": "Bratislava - Podunajské Biskupice", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-podunajske-biskupice-1", "name": "Martina Frőhlich Činovská", "ballot": 1, "party": "Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti; Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie; Nova; Magyar szövetség - maďarská aliancia", "job": "špecialistka komunikácie s verejnosťou", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 23.310971304905227, "low80_pct": 5.031110161430531, "high80_pct": 46.02355811371438, "win_probability": 0.12734, "fundamental_pct": 23.310971304905227, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.12418, "previous_pct": 9.342811547947193 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-podunajske-biskupice-2", "name": "Roman Lamoš", "ballot": 2, "party": "Team Bratislava; Progresívne Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati", "job": "starosta, stavebný inžinier", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 58.36918952247152, "low80_pct": 32.93214970991793, "high80_pct": 82.56514045037098, "win_probability": 0.78968, "fundamental_pct": 58.36918952247152, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.79294, "previous_pct": 44.828086464529235 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-podunajske-biskupice-3", "name": "Ladislav Méry", "ballot": 3, "party": "Dunaj", "job": "manažér", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 18.319839172623258, "low80_pct": 2.7499832954855936, "high80_pct": 39.287856074232835, "win_probability": 0.08298, "fundamental_pct": 18.319839172623258, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08288, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-ruzinov", "name": "Bratislava - Ružinov", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-ruzinov-1", "name": "Martin Chren", "ballot": 1, "party": "Tím Ružinov", "job": "starosta, ekonóm", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 52.29782752534186, "low80_pct": 26.86315513041697, "high80_pct": 77.653893995162, "win_probability": 0.68464, "fundamental_pct": 52.297827525341845, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.68324, "previous_pct": 78.13525669597634 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-ruzinov-2", "name": "Peter Strapák", "ballot": 2, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "ekonóm, podnikateľ v IT, poslanec mestskej časti", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 30.774550973436334, "low80_pct": 9.395964583650915, "high80_pct": 55.41707348957291, "win_probability": 0.2377, "fundamental_pct": 30.774550973436327, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.23918, "previous_pct": 10.932371652011833 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-ruzinov-3", "name": "Ivor Švihran", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "administratívny pracovník a sprievodca cestovného ruchu", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 16.92762150122182, "low80_pct": 2.1757873402601113, "high80_pct": 37.140428695603084, "win_probability": 0.07766, "fundamental_pct": 16.927621501221818, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07758, "previous_pct": 3.7319178248713483 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-vrakuna", "name": "Bratislava - Vrakuňa", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-vrakuna-1", "name": "Dušan Burdy", "ballot": 1, "party": "Právo na pravdu", "job": "dôchodca", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 13.126674206727735, "low80_pct": 0.9689464415883253, "high80_pct": 31.21586446551518, "win_probability": 0.03006, "fundamental_pct": 13.126674206727735, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.02972, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-vrakuna-2", "name": "Martin Kuruc", "ballot": 2, "party": "Team Bratislava; Progresívne Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 73.74665158654453, "low80_pct": 50.00462691560785, "high80_pct": 93.27118899696839, "win_probability": 0.93974, "fundamental_pct": 73.74665158654453, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.94132, "previous_pct": 100.0 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-vrakuna-3", "name": "Katarína Lukáčová", "ballot": 3, "party": "Demokratická strana - občianski demokrati Slovenska", "job": "ekonómka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 13.126674206727735, "low80_pct": 0.987028722066561, "high80_pct": 31.43896240022248, "win_probability": 0.0302, "fundamental_pct": 13.126674206727735, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.02896, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-nove-mesto", "name": "Bratislava - Nové Mesto", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-nove-mesto-1", "name": "Tomáš Čajda", "ballot": 1, "party": "Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti", "job": "vedúci odboru obstarávania", "active": false, "event_source": "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "estimate_pct": 0, "low80_pct": 0, "high80_pct": 0, "win_probability": 0, "fundamental_pct": 0, "fundamental_win_probability": 0 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-nove-mesto-2", "name": "Matúš Čupka", "ballot": 2, "party": "Team Bratislava; Progresívne Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati", "job": "starosta mestskej časti", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 62.22708311911165, "low80_pct": 36.536317293740154, "high80_pct": 85.40011384872231, "win_probability": 0.8384, "fundamental_pct": 62.22708311911165, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.8385, "previous_pct": 55.39288492821275 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-nove-mesto-3", "name": "Rudolf Kusý", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "odborník na rozvoj a riadenie samosprávy", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 20.252321185052484, "low80_pct": 3.606515001581135, "high80_pct": 42.053899994655175, "win_probability": 0.09002, "fundamental_pct": 20.252321185052487, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08988, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-nove-mesto-4", "name": "Mária Martaus", "ballot": 4, "party": "Pirátska strana - Slovensko", "job": "technická inžinierka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 17.520595695835873, "low80_pct": 2.490823448649783, "high80_pct": 38.21777591576933, "win_probability": 0.07158, "fundamental_pct": 17.520595695835873, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07162, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-raca", "name": "Bratislava - Rača", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-raca-1", "name": "Michal Drotován", "ballot": 1, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 63.83531638871492, "low80_pct": 38.24883083004124, "high80_pct": 86.78736065806338, "win_probability": 0.76664, "fundamental_pct": 63.83531638871492, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.76894, "previous_pct": 68.56338717572199 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-raca-2", "name": "Ján Polakovič", "ballot": 2, "party": "Spoločný cieľ", "job": "projektový manažér, poslanec", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 36.16468361128508, "low80_pct": 13.212639341936622, "high80_pct": 61.75116916995876, "win_probability": 0.23336, "fundamental_pct": 36.16468361128508, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.23106, "previous_pct": 25.8565834557024 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-vajnory", "name": "Bratislava - Vajnory", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-vajnory-1", "name": "Juraj Ondruška", "ballot": 1, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "vysokoškolský učiteľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 22.711232101837084, "low80_pct": 4.618758063640244, "high80_pct": 45.24071885075434, "win_probability": 0.1218, "fundamental_pct": 22.711232101837084, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.12342, "previous_pct": 18.47679134745381 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-vajnory-2", "name": "Michal Vlček", "ballot": 2, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 58.50652227573454, "low80_pct": 32.842469032230845, "high80_pct": 82.69679207811988, "win_probability": 0.79, "fundamental_pct": 58.50652227573454, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.79002, "previous_pct": 61.10860748084723 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-vajnory-3", "name": "Juraj Zeman", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "právnik", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 18.782245622428373, "low80_pct": 2.9415464759243486, "high80_pct": 40.33806638647942, "win_probability": 0.0882, "fundamental_pct": 18.782245622428373, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08656, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-devin", "name": "Bratislava - Devín", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-devin-1", "name": "Martin Galát", "ballot": 1, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "zástupca starostu", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 42.66332674715991, "low80_pct": 18.383465850911286, "high80_pct": 68.33800645642559, "win_probability": 0.5136, "fundamental_pct": 42.66332674715991, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.51194, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-devin-2", "name": "Pavol Maruščák", "ballot": 2, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "podnikateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 23.638461749698394, "low80_pct": 5.197451254956273, "high80_pct": 46.6502930977105, "win_probability": 0.16452, "fundamental_pct": 23.638461749698394, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.1647, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-devin-3", "name": "Igor Prieložný", "ballot": 3, "party": "Team Bratislava; Progresívne Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati", "job": "remeselník a filmár", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 33.69821150314171, "low80_pct": 11.439038660885572, "high80_pct": 58.72287256287003, "win_probability": 0.32188, "fundamental_pct": 33.69821150314171, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.32336, "previous_pct": 30.107526881720432 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-devinska-nova-ves", "name": "Bratislava - Devínska Nová Ves", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-devinska-nova-ves-1", "name": "Dárius Krajčír", "ballot": 1, "party": "Som Slovensko - strana obcí a miest", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 63.681549452831135, "low80_pct": 38.15923424093687, "high80_pct": 86.69027846032485, "win_probability": 0.85466, "fundamental_pct": 63.681549452831135, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.85684, "previous_pct": 79.93660264777176 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-devinska-nova-ves-2", "name": "Ľuboš Krajčír", "ballot": 2, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "projektový manažér", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 19.472494743895737, "low80_pct": 3.2931230912417164, "high80_pct": 41.19122032863029, "win_probability": 0.08308, "fundamental_pct": 19.472494743895737, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07918, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-devinska-nova-ves-3", "name": "Denis Ružovič", "ballot": 3, "party": "Strana vidieka", "job": "nezamestnaný", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 16.84595580327313, "low80_pct": 2.1595205332289904, "high80_pct": 37.03840385398176, "win_probability": 0.06226, "fundamental_pct": 16.84595580327313, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06398, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-dubravka", "name": "Bratislava - Dúbravka", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-dubravka-1", "name": "Martin Zaťovič", "ballot": 1, "party": "Som Slovensko - strana obcí a miest", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 100.0, "low80_pct": 100.0, "high80_pct": 100.0, "win_probability": 1.0, "fundamental_pct": 100.0, "fundamental_win_probability": 1.0, "previous_pct": 81.04377422709653 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku.", "Jediný aktívny kandidát: 100 % podmienené platným konaním volieb a aspoň jedným platným hlasom. Model neodhaduje zrušenie volieb ani volebnú účasť." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-karlova-ves", "name": "Bratislava - Karlova Ves", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-karlova-ves-1", "name": "Martin Vician", "ballot": 1, "party": "Team Bratislava; Progresívne Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati", "job": "podnikateľ a inovátor v oblasti financií", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 36.692990205597745, "low80_pct": 13.487198627592669, "high80_pct": 62.261397027041426, "win_probability": 0.23976, "fundamental_pct": 36.692990205597745, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.23732, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-karlova-ves-2", "name": "Branislav Záhradník", "ballot": 2, "party": "Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti", "job": "zástupca starostky", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 63.307009794402255, "low80_pct": 37.73860297295855, "high80_pct": 86.51280137240732, "win_probability": 0.76024, "fundamental_pct": 63.30700979440225, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.76268, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-lamac", "name": "Bratislava - Lamač", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-lamac-1", "name": "Igor Polakovič", "ballot": 1, "party": "Team Bratislava; Progresívne Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 69.52522775354373, "low80_pct": 45.10700151287358, "high80_pct": 90.73706317049512, "win_probability": 0.8542, "fundamental_pct": 69.52522775354373, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.84956, "previous_pct": 39.342595730260925 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-lamac-2", "name": "Mária Šimončičová", "ballot": 2, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "riaditeľka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 30.474772246456265, "low80_pct": 9.262936829504866, "high80_pct": 54.89299848712643, "win_probability": 0.1458, "fundamental_pct": 30.474772246456265, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.15044, "previous_pct": 12.91087766858692 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-zahorska-bystrica", "name": "Bratislava - Záhorská Bystrica", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-zahorska-bystrica-1", "name": "Jozef Krúpa", "ballot": 1, "party": "Som Slovensko - strana obcí a miest", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 100.0, "low80_pct": 100.0, "high80_pct": 100.0, "win_probability": 1.0, "fundamental_pct": 100.0, "fundamental_win_probability": 1.0, "previous_pct": 84.88372093023256 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku.", "Jediný aktívny kandidát: 100 % podmienené platným konaním volieb a aspoň jedným platným hlasom. Model neodhaduje zrušenie volieb ani volebnú účasť." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-cunovo", "name": "Bratislava - Čunovo", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-cunovo-1", "name": "Ivan Boška", "ballot": 1, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "podnikateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 14.313903887873366, "low80_pct": 1.3278339669798513, "high80_pct": 33.13574870322846, "win_probability": 0.08984, "fundamental_pct": 14.313903887873366, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.09084, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-cunovo-2", "name": "Gabriela Ferenčáková", "ballot": 2, "party": "Som Slovensko - strana obcí a miest", "job": "starostka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 42.74438444850654, "low80_pct": 18.574940248241365, "high80_pct": 68.31670302404683, "win_probability": 0.63986, "fundamental_pct": 42.74438444850653, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.63512, "previous_pct": 71.0958904109589 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-cunovo-3", "name": "Marek Kausich", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "podnikateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 14.313903887873366, "low80_pct": 1.2857164258903984, "high80_pct": 33.0344508620242, "win_probability": 0.0881, "fundamental_pct": 14.313903887873366, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.09128, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-cunovo-4", "name": "Marián Krist", "ballot": 4, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "maklér", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 14.313903887873366, "low80_pct": 1.299987808275217, "high80_pct": 33.41346307763187, "win_probability": 0.0921, "fundamental_pct": 14.313903887873366, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.09098, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-cunovo-5", "name": "Michal Šimunek", "ballot": 5, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "policajt", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 14.313903887873366, "low80_pct": 1.2860195477067118, "high80_pct": 33.19077976743525, "win_probability": 0.0901, "fundamental_pct": 14.313903887873366, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.09178, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-jarovce", "name": "Bratislava - Jarovce", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-jarovce-1", "name": "Jozef Uhler", "ballot": 1, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 100.0, "low80_pct": 100.0, "high80_pct": 100.0, "win_probability": 1.0, "fundamental_pct": 100.0, "fundamental_win_probability": 1.0, "previous_pct": 100.0 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku.", "Jediný aktívny kandidát: 100 % podmienené platným konaním volieb a aspoň jedným platným hlasom. Model neodhaduje zrušenie volieb ani volebnú účasť." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-petrzalka", "name": "Bratislava - Petržalka", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-petrzalka-1", "name": "Ján Hrčka", "ballot": 1, "party": "Krajina", "job": "IT špecialista", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 47.928457665542076, "low80_pct": 22.860946109416183, "high80_pct": 73.48427316722422, "win_probability": 0.62374, "fundamental_pct": 47.928457665542076, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.62038, "previous_pct": 77.19790310193997 }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-petrzalka-2", "name": "Daniel Klimovský", "ballot": 2, "party": "Team Bratislava; Progresívne Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati", "job": "medzinárodný konzultant pre samosprávy, univerzitný pedagóg", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 26.622182970811874, "low80_pct": 6.819118779054396, "high80_pct": 50.06715630055004, "win_probability": 0.19262, "fundamental_pct": 26.622182970811874, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.1985, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-petrzalka-3", "name": "Juraj Mravec", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "právnik", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 25.449359363646046, "low80_pct": 6.2352435441079805, "high80_pct": 48.94198675343476, "win_probability": 0.18364, "fundamental_pct": 25.449359363646046, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.18112, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "borough-bratislava-rusovce", "name": "Bratislava - Rusovce", "category": "borough", "candidates": [ { "id": "borough-bratislava-rusovce-1", "name": "Radovan Jenčík", "ballot": 1, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "starosta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 100.0, "low80_pct": 100.0, "high80_pct": 100.0, "win_probability": 1.0, "fundamental_pct": 100.0, "fundamental_win_probability": 1.0, "previous_pct": 59.967320261437905 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku.", "Jediný aktívny kandidát: 100 % podmienené platným konaním volieb a aspoň jedným platným hlasom. Model neodhaduje zrušenie volieb ani volebnú účasť." ] }, { "id": "city-trnava", "name": "Trnava", "category": "city", "candidates": [ { "id": "city-trnava-1", "name": "Branislav Baroš", "ballot": 1, "party": "Trnava pre každého; Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie", "job": "riaditeľ strojárskej spoločnosti", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 21.51122921648741, "low80_pct": 4.202770010489421, "high80_pct": 43.91924104905397, "win_probability": 0.2183, "fundamental_pct": 21.511229216487408, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.21428, "previous_pct": 33.620091577632856 }, { "id": "city-trnava-2", "name": "Andrea Čajková", "ballot": 2, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "docentka verejnej politiky a verejnej správy, vysokoškolská pedagogička", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 16.18021151166569, "low80_pct": 1.8907076043628115, "high80_pct": 36.23439440921901, "win_probability": 0.13492, "fundamental_pct": 16.18021151166569, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.13478, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-trnava-3", "name": "Ľubica Horváthová", "ballot": 3, "party": "Demokrati", "job": "špecialistka na energetické projekty", "active": false, "event_source": "https://dennikn.sk/5633751/trnava-po-12-rokoch-meni-primatora-favoriti-su-viceprimatorka-ktora-nechce-byt-brocka-2-a-podnikatel-ktory-mu-vycita-komunikaciu/", "estimate_pct": 0, "low80_pct": 0, "high80_pct": 0, "win_probability": 0, "fundamental_pct": 0, "fundamental_win_probability": 0 }, { "id": "city-trnava-4", "name": "Eva Nemčovská", "ballot": 4, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "zástupkyňa primátora", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 29.202477634533857, "low80_pct": 8.407100523209404, "high80_pct": 53.44058241493751, "win_probability": 0.36782, "fundamental_pct": 29.202477634533857, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.37152, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-trnava-5", "name": "Jozef Obselka", "ballot": 5, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "vedúci spoločnosti", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 16.18021151166569, "low80_pct": 1.8819194743793524, "high80_pct": 36.231614446374486, "win_probability": 0.13562, "fundamental_pct": 16.18021151166569, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.1337, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-trnava-6", "name": "Martin Pullmann", "ballot": 6, "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia; Hlas - sociálna demokracia; Slovenská národná strana; Republika", "job": "vedúci štátny zamestnanec", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 16.92587012564736, "low80_pct": 2.168821881568926, "high80_pct": 37.061560021762915, "win_probability": 0.14334, "fundamental_pct": 16.92587012564736, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.14572, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "city-trencin", "name": "Trenčín", "category": "city", "candidates": [ { "id": "city-trencin-1", "name": "Danica Birošová", "ballot": 1, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "advokátka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 19.51017532823676, "low80_pct": 3.221723767244718, "high80_pct": 41.071357023110416, "win_probability": 0.15254, "fundamental_pct": 19.51017532823676, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.15238, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-trencin-2", "name": "Michal Bratranec", "ballot": 2, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "šofér", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 19.51017532823676, "low80_pct": 3.2084844335749896, "high80_pct": 40.8312318157863, "win_probability": 0.15148, "fundamental_pct": 19.51017532823676, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.15454, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-trencin-3", "name": "Ján Forgáč", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "zástupca primátora", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 35.21248521738362, "low80_pct": 12.656895631037273, "high80_pct": 60.451989474002744, "win_probability": 0.44584, "fundamental_pct": 35.21248521738362, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.44258, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-trencin-4", "name": "Miloš Mičega", "ballot": 4, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "riaditeľ regionálneho úradu", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 25.767164126142855, "low80_pct": 6.370211982946902, "high80_pct": 49.405178098960945, "win_probability": 0.25014, "fundamental_pct": 25.767164126142855, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.2505, "previous_pct": 27.05795948344452 } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "city-nitra", "name": "Nitra", "category": "city", "candidates": [ { "id": "city-nitra-1", "name": "Marek Hattas", "ballot": 1, "party": "Tím kraj Nitra - združenie kandidátov Nitrianskeho kraja; Progresívne Slovensko; Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati; Hnutie Slovensko; Občianska konzervatívna strana", "job": "primátor", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 42.25640252220009, "low80_pct": 32.737067635404706, "high80_pct": 51.73353387275879, "win_probability": 0.65092, "fundamental_pct": 43.9556623161394, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.61066, "previous_pct": 30.809527398809077 }, { "id": "city-nitra-2", "name": "Marek Illéš", "ballot": 2, "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia; Hlas - sociálna demokracia; Sme rodina", "job": "generálny riaditeľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 9.923496347289314, "low80_pct": 4.5117965300448875, "high80_pct": 16.29526413977128, "win_probability": 0.0001, "fundamental_pct": 17.157438897667458, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.11058, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-nitra-3", "name": "Igor Kršiak", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "právnik", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 37.07996033248618, "low80_pct": 28.165527159644387, "high80_pct": 46.258124047067085, "win_probability": 0.34868, "fundamental_pct": 22.7227541222097, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.17748, "previous_pct": 27.21037159870355 }, { "id": "city-nitra-4", "name": "Zuzana Uhríková", "ballot": 4, "party": "Republika; Slovenská národná strana", "job": "ekonómka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 10.740140798024406, "low80_pct": 5.183664670398691, "high80_pct": 17.35143345768835, "win_probability": 0.0003, "fundamental_pct": 16.164144663983436, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.10128, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "focus-nitra", "effective_n": 38.778619045843364, "withdrawn_mass": 0.151 } ], "concentration": 44.778619045843364, "transfer_mass": 0.13375413851658063, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [ "Časť meranej podpory je neistá pre odstúpenia alebo nerozhodnutých. Presun je modelový scenár, nie nameraný prechod voličov." ] }, { "id": "city-zilina", "name": "Žilina", "category": "city", "candidates": [ { "id": "city-zilina-1", "name": "Peter Cibulka", "ballot": 1, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "učiteľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 12.101376769154406, "low80_pct": 0.7542903940906887, "high80_pct": 29.585094089299112, "win_probability": 0.10744, "fundamental_pct": 12.101376769154406, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.10654, "previous_pct": 15.51084196132057 }, { "id": "city-zilina-2", "name": "Peter Fiabáne", "ballot": 2, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "primátor", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 27.384016248394254, "low80_pct": 7.369901563470575, "high80_pct": 51.28889742734045, "win_probability": 0.39918, "fundamental_pct": 27.384016248394254, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.4087, "previous_pct": 45.53233053330729 }, { "id": "city-zilina-3", "name": "Rastislav Johanes", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "lekár, manager", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 10.317717976849975, "low80_pct": 0.38105253246231036, "high80_pct": 26.17896904094705, "win_probability": 0.0847, "fundamental_pct": 10.317717976849975, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08258, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-zilina-4", "name": "Bohumil Kostolný", "ballot": 4, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "predčasný dôchodca", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 10.317717976849975, "low80_pct": 0.3838781706402731, "high80_pct": 26.47156646692169, "win_probability": 0.08394, "fundamental_pct": 10.317717976849975, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08474, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-zilina-5", "name": "Anton Kozlík", "ballot": 5, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "riaditeľ spoločnosti", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 10.317717976849975, "low80_pct": 0.40775498086770706, "high80_pct": 26.451867662419545, "win_probability": 0.08528, "fundamental_pct": 10.317717976849975, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.082, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-zilina-6", "name": "Ivan Magát", "ballot": 6, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "právnik, taxikár", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 10.317717976849975, "low80_pct": 0.40568105398378196, "high80_pct": 26.644185823632313, "win_probability": 0.08622, "fundamental_pct": 10.317717976849975, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08506, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-zilina-7", "name": "Michal Milo", "ballot": 7, "party": "Republika", "job": "účtovník", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 8.926017098201458, "low80_pct": 0.20253366788990465, "high80_pct": 24.223616089115495, "win_probability": 0.06992, "fundamental_pct": 8.926017098201458, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.0675, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-zilina-8", "name": "Miroslav Sokol", "ballot": 8, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "elektrotechnik", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 10.317717976849975, "low80_pct": 0.39205869843701247, "high80_pct": 26.423005593825184, "win_probability": 0.08332, "fundamental_pct": 10.317717976849975, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08288, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "city-banska-bystrica", "name": "Banská Bystrica", "category": "city", "candidates": [ { "id": "city-banska-bystrica-1", "name": "Diana Javorčíková", "ballot": 1, "party": "Progresívne Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Demokrati; Hnutie Slovensko; Občianska konzervatívna strana", "job": "projektová manažérka, poslankyňa", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 35.714197738957886, "low80_pct": 29.073449253744823, "high80_pct": 42.53079419924539, "win_probability": 0.27204, "fundamental_pct": 28.259073115119914, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.29074, "previous_pct": 24.84932399413585 }, { "id": "city-banska-bystrica-2", "name": "Marian Kotleba", "ballot": 2, "party": "Kotlebovci - ľudová strana naše Slovensko", "job": "predseda politickej strany", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 4.453675706531215, "low80_pct": 1.848812231092508, "high80_pct": 7.4974359512430055, "win_probability": 0.0, "fundamental_pct": 10.324246936491702, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.05274, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-banska-bystrica-3", "name": "Matúš Molitoris", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "projektový manažér", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 16.664375976964386, "low80_pct": 11.64151419804531, "high80_pct": 21.991044668467207, "win_probability": 0.00036, "fundamental_pct": 11.933952964927936, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06562, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-banska-bystrica-4", "name": "Ján Nosko", "ballot": 4, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "primátor", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 41.56588040031272, "low80_pct": 34.66196656582132, "high80_pct": 48.51233292564684, "win_probability": 0.7276, "fundamental_pct": 39.158480046968734, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.53712, "previous_pct": 66.16712819677471 }, { "id": "city-banska-bystrica-5", "name": "Tomáš Sobota", "ballot": 5, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "architekt - urbanista", "active": false, "event_source": "https://www.ta3.com/clanok/1077195/prieskum-pre-ta3-suboj-o-bansku-bystricu-sa-zamotava-jeden-z-kandidatov-vyrazne-stiahol-naskok-lidra", "estimate_pct": 0, "low80_pct": 0, "high80_pct": 0, "win_probability": 0, "fundamental_pct": 0, "fundamental_win_probability": 0 }, { "id": "city-banska-bystrica-6", "name": "Ondrej Vereš", "ballot": 6, "party": "Strana vidieka", "job": "zoraďovač", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 1.6018701772337898, "low80_pct": 0.24024483392279372, "high80_pct": 3.4534123647405437, "win_probability": 0.0, "fundamental_pct": 10.324246936491702, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.05378, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "ako-bb", "effective_n": 121.88329692114671, "withdrawn_mass": 0.1 }, { "id": "sanep-bb", "effective_n": 174.11011265922482, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0 } ], "concentration": 80, "transfer_mass": 0.04049367628715515, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [ "Časť meranej podpory je neistá pre odstúpenia alebo nerozhodnutých. Presun je modelový scenár, nie nameraný prechod voličov." ] }, { "id": "city-presov", "name": "Prešov", "category": "city", "candidates": [ { "id": "city-presov-1", "name": "Artúr Benes", "ballot": 1, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "generálny riaditeľ agentúry", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 14.00016510354029, "low80_pct": 1.2056683371543035, "high80_pct": 32.61115845476428, "win_probability": 0.11388, "fundamental_pct": 14.00016510354029, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.1176, "previous_pct": 11.211832061068701 }, { "id": "city-presov-2", "name": "Martin Eštočák", "ballot": 2, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "právnik, odborný autor a poradca pre občanov, školy, obce a mestá", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 12.716956219943057, "low80_pct": 0.876042583855917, "high80_pct": 30.77501206887201, "win_probability": 0.0977, "fundamental_pct": 12.716956219943057, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.09998, "previous_pct": 1.8606870229007633 }, { "id": "city-presov-3", "name": "Pavel Hagyari", "ballot": 3, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "právnik advokát", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 15.861499060051019, "low80_pct": 1.819634638668427, "high80_pct": 35.920359679398025, "win_probability": 0.14366, "fundamental_pct": 15.861499060051019, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.1396, "previous_pct": 23.354007633587788 }, { "id": "city-presov-4", "name": "Rastislav Mochnacký", "ballot": 4, "party": "Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie; Hnutie Slovensko; Sloboda a solidarita; Konzervatívci - kresťanská únia; Za ľudí; Nova", "job": "krajinný architekt", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 13.993773947660515, "low80_pct": 1.2180069359793282, "high80_pct": 32.525525513004304, "win_probability": 0.11342, "fundamental_pct": 13.993773947660515, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.11476, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-presov-5", "name": "František Oľha", "ballot": 5, "party": "Progresívne Slovensko; Demokrati; Demokratická strana - občianski demokrati Slovenska", "job": "primátor", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 30.376641672221936, "low80_pct": 9.193872730477402, "high80_pct": 54.87961112115622, "win_probability": 0.42928, "fundamental_pct": 30.376641672221936, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.42408, "previous_pct": 37.26145038167939 }, { "id": "city-presov-6", "name": "Svetlana Pavlovičová", "ballot": 6, "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia; Slovenská národná strana; Sme rodina; Bratia Slovenska", "job": "odborná konzultantka pre sociálnu ekonomiku a práva detí", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 13.050963996583187, "low80_pct": 0.9545695053776485, "high80_pct": 31.0953651265529, "win_probability": 0.10206, "fundamental_pct": 13.050963996583187, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.10398, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [], "concentration": 6, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "fundamentals", "notes": [ "Bez zaradeného miestneho prieskumu. Slabší fundamentálny odhad; široké intervaly sú podstatnou súčasťou výsledku." ] }, { "id": "city-kosice", "name": "Košice", "category": "city", "candidates": [ { "id": "city-kosice-1", "name": "Lenka Kovačevičová", "ballot": 1, "party": "Tím Košice; Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti; Právo na pravdu", "job": "starostka mestskej časti", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 16.92328686251007, "low80_pct": 11.59978716913026, "high80_pct": 22.79097206141147, "win_probability": 0.04952, "fundamental_pct": 15.92875410359261, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.16616, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-kosice-2", "name": "Ladislav Lörinc", "ballot": 2, "party": "Košická strana", "job": "starosta mestskej časti", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 25.92823322091175, "low80_pct": 19.866392030182695, "high80_pct": 32.43312093980394, "win_probability": 0.54094, "fundamental_pct": 13.78021106999886, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.13044, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-kosice-3", "name": "Ladislav Lörincz", "ballot": 3, "party": "Jednota Slovanov", "job": "vodič", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 2.858390738796981, "low80_pct": 0.6649121466287586, "high80_pct": 5.914199834553226, "win_probability": 0.0, "fundamental_pct": 8.162212402110459, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.05954, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-kosice-4", "name": "Martin Mudrák", "ballot": 4, "party": "Progresívne Slovensko; Demokrati; Za ľudí", "job": "manažér pre regionálne investície a samosprávu", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 20.81530020660761, "low80_pct": 15.272661255449407, "high80_pct": 26.678378555892973, "win_probability": 0.15846, "fundamental_pct": 9.423478562134902, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07392, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-kosice-5", "name": "Jaroslav Polaček", "ballot": 5, "party": "Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie; Sloboda a solidarita; Magyar szövetség - maďarská aliancia; Strana rómskej koalície - srk; Nova; Demokratická strana - občianski demokrati Slovenska", "job": "primátor mesta", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 22.40468300396834, "low80_pct": 16.24013525636947, "high80_pct": 28.97861419583677, "win_probability": 0.2509, "fundamental_pct": 25.673482274842925, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.36554, "previous_pct": 36.79228401689213 }, { "id": "city-kosice-6", "name": "Alexander Riabov", "ballot": 6, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "právnik a ekonóm", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 6.442372864616935, "low80_pct": 3.0746013806986743, "high80_pct": 10.516278683310588, "win_probability": 0.00016, "fundamental_pct": 9.4348245926049, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07232, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-kosice-7", "name": "Miroslav Sabol", "ballot": 7, "party": "Nezávislý kandidát", "job": "lobista, konzultant", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 2.801343085790193, "low80_pct": 0.589836852977789, "high80_pct": 5.877678593616763, "win_probability": 2e-05, "fundamental_pct": 9.4348245926049, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07442, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "city-kosice-8", "name": "Alexander Székely", "ballot": 8, "party": "Slovenské hnutie obrody", "job": "politický aktivista", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 1.8263900167981135, "low80_pct": 0.16632760854437226, "high80_pct": 4.5280411452272675, "win_probability": 0.0, "fundamental_pct": 8.162212402110459, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.05766, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-oso26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "ixactly-ke", "effective_n": 78.78848244655485, "withdrawn_mass": 0.27127127127127126 }, { "id": "ipsos-ke", "effective_n": 111.80154859226921, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0 } ], "concentration": 80, "transfer_mass": 0.1092747502584561, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [ "Časť meranej podpory je neistá pre odstúpenia alebo nerozhodnutých. Presun je modelový scenár, nie nameraný prechod voličov." ] }, { "id": "region-bratislavsky-kraj", "name": "Bratislavský kraj", "category": "region", "candidates": [ { "id": "region-bratislavsky-kraj-1", "name": "Juraj Droba", "ballot": 1, "party": "Sloboda a solidarita, Progresívne Slovensko, Demokrati, Team Bratislava", "job": "predseda samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 60.84312876801857, "low80_pct": 47.39488254302611, "high80_pct": 74.0258426363055, "win_probability": 0.99752, "fundamental_pct": 37.408462066782846, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.5886, "previous_pct": 63.60917757521442 }, { "id": "region-bratislavsky-kraj-2", "name": "Rastislav Gajarský", "ballot": 2, "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Slovenská národná strana", "job": "prednosta okresného úradu", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 11.02623056245767, "low80_pct": 3.649748825180193, "high80_pct": 19.908141115480632, "win_probability": 0.00148, "fundamental_pct": 11.17530584689813, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07662, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-bratislavsky-kraj-3", "name": "Ján Chalabala", "ballot": 3, "party": "Komunistická strana Slovenska", "job": "výsluhový dôchodca", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 3.2584549542491894, "low80_pct": 0.16967901882305947, "high80_pct": 8.095268370372308, "win_probability": 4e-05, "fundamental_pct": 9.67956995704827, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06136, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-bratislavsky-kraj-4", "name": "Zuzana Krajčovičová", "ballot": 4, "party": "Právo na pravdu, Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti", "job": "konateľka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 6.399885336233474, "low80_pct": 1.1747968409881155, "high80_pct": 13.412710954085082, "win_probability": 0.00022, "fundamental_pct": 11.1887611075871, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.0745, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-bratislavsky-kraj-5", "name": "Ľudovít Líška", "ballot": 5, "party": "Jednota Slovanov", "job": "podnikateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 8.813960088558426, "low80_pct": 2.390149205030474, "high80_pct": 16.959516379734477, "win_probability": 0.00056, "fundamental_pct": 9.67956995704827, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06206, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-bratislavsky-kraj-6", "name": "Peter Poláček", "ballot": 6, "party": "Slovexit", "job": "forénzny špecialista pre prompty", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 5.110289999018935, "low80_pct": 0.6869904429229697, "high80_pct": 11.227250086871985, "win_probability": 0.0001, "fundamental_pct": 9.67956995704827, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06106, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-bratislavsky-kraj-7", "name": "Dávid Staruch", "ballot": 7, "party": "nezávislý kandidát", "job": "odborník v oblasti IT, dátový inžinier", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 4.548050291463728, "low80_pct": 0.4869210926951724, "high80_pct": 10.45660657703235, "win_probability": 8e-05, "fundamental_pct": 11.1887611075871, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.0758, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-vuc26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "scio-bratislavsky", "effective_n": 15.749013123685915, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0 } ], "concentration": 21.749013123685913, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [] }, { "id": "region-trnavsky-kraj", "name": "Trnavský kraj", "category": "region", "candidates": [ { "id": "region-trnavsky-kraj-1", "name": "József Berényi", "ballot": 1, "party": "Magyar szövetség - maďarská aliancia", "job": "podpredseda samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 13.129023577564025, "low80_pct": 6.321474954187108, "high80_pct": 20.93911207645665, "win_probability": 0.0019, "fundamental_pct": 18.290145247378124, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.19058, "previous_pct": 21.04471504252519 }, { "id": "region-trnavsky-kraj-2", "name": "Jaroslav Cehlárik", "ballot": 2, "party": "Právo na pravdu", "job": "riaditeľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 2.8236954537299814, "low80_pct": 0.27678372047271116, "high80_pct": 6.527395951849026, "win_probability": 2e-05, "fundamental_pct": 8.725915614106954, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.0597, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-trnavsky-kraj-3", "name": "Róbert Dohál", "ballot": 3, "party": "Alternatíva pre Slovensko", "job": "poľnohospodársky inžinier", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 4.989837559511859, "low80_pct": 1.133070605238553, "high80_pct": 10.0152044039774, "win_probability": 2e-05, "fundamental_pct": 8.725915614106954, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.05974, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-trnavsky-kraj-4", "name": "Peter Hambálek", "ballot": 4, "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Slovenská národná strana, Republika", "job": "generálny štátny radca", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 15.712554363186925, "low80_pct": 8.266281947215514, "high80_pct": 24.010203084734712, "win_probability": 0.00396, "fundamental_pct": 10.551246196003389, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07972, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-trnavsky-kraj-5", "name": "Matej Lančarič", "ballot": 5, "party": "nezávislý kandidát", "job": "poslanec samosprávneho kraja, projektový manažér", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 8.357717886566808, "low80_pct": 3.065491615139031, "high80_pct": 14.683911065956314, "win_probability": 0.00018, "fundamental_pct": 17.028834499561704, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.16614, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-trnavsky-kraj-6", "name": "Štefan Pollák", "ballot": 6, "party": "Spoločne občania Slovenska", "job": "účtovník", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 3.94859864638855, "low80_pct": 0.6714916352496814, "high80_pct": 8.473374335450371, "win_probability": 0.0, "fundamental_pct": 8.725915614106954, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.05922, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-trnavsky-kraj-7", "name": "Jozef Viskupič", "ballot": 7, "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie, Demokrati, Hnutie Slovensko, Maďarské fórum, Občianska konzervatívna strana", "job": "predseda samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 51.03857251305186, "low80_pct": 40.0693598287775, "high80_pct": 61.98412855866242, "win_probability": 0.99392, "fundamental_pct": 27.952027214735914, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.3849, "previous_pct": 38.56741541966666 } ], "source": "mv-vuc26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "scio-trnavsky", "effective_n": 15.749013123685915, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0 }, { "id": "ako-tt", "effective_n": 11.662912394210093, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0 } ], "concentration": 33.41192551789601, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [] }, { "id": "region-trenciansky-kraj", "name": "Trenčiansky kraj", "category": "region", "candidates": [ { "id": "region-trenciansky-kraj-1", "name": "Jaroslav Baška", "ballot": 1, "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Republika, Slovenská národná strana", "job": "predseda samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 50.712911045848664, "low80_pct": 37.02291342556332, "high80_pct": 64.37546964302828, "win_probability": 0.73938, "fundamental_pct": 54.895762475714896, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.7895, "previous_pct": 67.25235782819385 }, { "id": "region-trenciansky-kraj-2", "name": "Daniel Galas", "ballot": 2, "party": "Slovexit", "job": "výsluhový dôchodca", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 7.047055361925787, "low80_pct": 1.47860495884164, "high80_pct": 14.321796280554222, "win_probability": 0.00042, "fundamental_pct": 13.682307713273751, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.05922, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-trenciansky-kraj-3", "name": "Lubomír Choleva", "ballot": 3, "party": "Vlastenecký blok", "job": "dôchodca", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 4.230792159008214, "low80_pct": 0.41209644642249277, "high80_pct": 9.942328225225161, "win_probability": 8e-05, "fundamental_pct": 13.682307713273751, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.061, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-trenciansky-kraj-4", "name": "Natália Svítková", "ballot": 4, "party": "Demokrati, Hnutie Slovensko, Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie, Občianska konzervatívna strana, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita", "job": "manažérka partnerských vzťahov a spoluprác", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 38.00924143321735, "low80_pct": 25.12566568923472, "high80_pct": 51.56761952399961, "win_probability": 0.26012, "fundamental_pct": 17.739622097737605, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.09028, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-vuc26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "scio-trenciansky", "effective_n": 15.749013123685915, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0 } ], "concentration": 21.749013123685913, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [] }, { "id": "region-nitriansky-kraj", "name": "Nitriansky kraj", "category": "region", "candidates": [ { "id": "region-nitriansky-kraj-1", "name": "Branislav Becík", "ballot": 1, "party": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Smer - sociálna demokracia, Slovenská národná strana, Republika, Právo na pravdu, Bratia Slovenska", "job": "predseda samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 44.098028957177625, "low80_pct": 30.59216795018726, "high80_pct": 57.837564524221705, "win_probability": 0.88324, "fundamental_pct": 25.507985075372886, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.3345, "previous_pct": 27.497028739343232 }, { "id": "region-nitriansky-kraj-2", "name": "Erik Blaško", "ballot": 2, "party": "Jednota Slovanov", "job": "vodič", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 8.138872173289807, "low80_pct": 2.024697213445772, "high80_pct": 16.030736575980423, "win_probability": 0.00308, "fundamental_pct": 8.92277039794209, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06428, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-nitriansky-kraj-3", "name": "Tibor Csenger", "ballot": 3, "party": "Magyar szövetség - maďarská aliancia", "job": "podpredseda samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 9.302627977443297, "low80_pct": 2.6577079579113723, "high80_pct": 17.50841861950862, "win_probability": 0.00556, "fundamental_pct": 17.878368726977083, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.18282, "previous_pct": 16.659647940705803 }, { "id": "region-nitriansky-kraj-4", "name": "Jolana Čuláková", "ballot": 4, "party": "nezávislá kandidátka", "job": "redaktorka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 9.476028331179712, "low80_pct": 2.7365199234446425, "high80_pct": 17.75876570907547, "win_probability": 0.00588, "fundamental_pct": 10.313965066984023, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.078, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-nitriansky-kraj-5", "name": "Karol Suchan", "ballot": 5, "party": "Slovexit", "job": "podnikateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 3.1520800012563472, "low80_pct": 0.14549371871751227, "high80_pct": 7.882352911021354, "win_probability": 0.00028, "fundamental_pct": 8.92277039794209, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06302, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-nitriansky-kraj-6", "name": "Róbert Švec", "ballot": 6, "party": "Slovenské hnutie obrody", "job": "politológ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 3.1520800012563472, "low80_pct": 0.14743898260031693, "high80_pct": 7.903044246579922, "win_probability": 0.0003, "fundamental_pct": 8.92277039794209, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06286, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-nitriansky-kraj-7", "name": "Henrich Varga", "ballot": 7, "party": "Tím kraj Nitra - združenie kandidátov Nitrianskeho kraja, Sloboda a solidarita, Progresívne Slovensko, Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie, Hnutie Slovensko, Demokrati, Maďarské fórum, Občianska konzervatívna strana", "job": "poslanec samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 22.680282558396858, "low80_pct": 12.005898887569934, "high80_pct": 34.674797563201004, "win_probability": 0.10166, "fundamental_pct": 19.53136993683974, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.21452, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-vuc26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "scio-nitriansky", "effective_n": 15.749013123685915, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0 } ], "concentration": 21.749013123685913, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [] }, { "id": "region-zilinsky-kraj", "name": "Žilinský kraj", "category": "region", "candidates": [ { "id": "region-zilinsky-kraj-1", "name": "Anna Belousovová", "ballot": 1, "party": "Republika", "job": "viceprimátorka", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 18.84817403591087, "low80_pct": 11.000249856555845, "high80_pct": 27.48391078255118, "win_probability": 0.01646, "fundamental_pct": 19.185239370946764, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.18606, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-zilinsky-kraj-2", "name": "Jana Chlustinová", "ballot": 2, "party": "Slovexit", "job": "invalidná dôchodkyňa", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 2.6984083391735494, "low80_pct": 0.2792655501568537, "high80_pct": 6.104225193830743, "win_probability": 0.0, "fundamental_pct": 10.629962115158373, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07112, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-zilinsky-kraj-3", "name": "Igor Choma", "ballot": 3, "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Domov národná strana", "job": "štátny tajomník", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 17.295140450414515, "low80_pct": 9.699704970931997, "high80_pct": 25.661697345018606, "win_probability": 0.01134, "fundamental_pct": 15.425724095247121, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.13058, "previous_pct": 22.243525597406236 }, { "id": "region-zilinsky-kraj-4", "name": "Erika Jurinová", "ballot": 4, "party": "Hnutie Slovensko, Za ľudí, Nova, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie, Demokrati, Konzervatívci - kresťanská únia, Občianska konzervatívna strana, Demokratická strana - občianski demokrati Slovenska", "job": "predsedníčka samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 46.38322176840934, "low80_pct": 35.78273070542651, "high80_pct": 57.04505570942624, "win_probability": 0.96992, "fundamental_pct": 31.84177854620774, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.44882, "previous_pct": 32.04138814393788 }, { "id": "region-zilinsky-kraj-5", "name": "Martin Kapitulík", "ballot": 5, "party": "nezávislý kandidát", "job": "riaditeľ, regionálny stratég", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 12.25391162068029, "low80_pct": 5.914189372238296, "high80_pct": 19.521700484717634, "win_probability": 0.00224, "fundamental_pct": 12.287333757281626, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.0903, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-zilinsky-kraj-6", "name": "Adam Lučanský", "ballot": 6, "party": "Slovenská národná strana", "job": "poslanec národnej rady", "active": false, "event_source": "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/HvrN26N/adam-lucansky-sa-v-zivom-vysielani-vzdal-kandidatury-na-predsedu-zilinskeho-kraja-v-prospech-igora-chomu/", "estimate_pct": 0, "low80_pct": 0, "high80_pct": 0, "win_probability": 0, "fundamental_pct": 0, "fundamental_win_probability": 0 }, { "id": "region-zilinsky-kraj-7", "name": "Milan Pova", "ballot": 7, "party": "Komunistická strana Slovenska", "job": "dôchodca", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 2.5211437854114367, "low80_pct": 0.2350419867013043, "high80_pct": 5.775538314166347, "win_probability": 4e-05, "fundamental_pct": 10.629962115158373, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07312, "previous_pct": null } ], "source": "mv-vuc26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "scio-zilinsky", "effective_n": 15.749013123685915, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0741 }, { "id": "ako-zsk", "effective_n": 11.39653110697771, "withdrawn_mass": 0.062 } ], "concentration": 33.145544230663624, "transfer_mass": 0.05828449466133258, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [ "Časť meranej podpory je neistá pre odstúpenia alebo nerozhodnutých. Presun je modelový scenár, nie nameraný prechod voličov." ] }, { "id": "region-banskobystricky-kraj", "name": "Banskobystrický kraj", "category": "region", "candidates": [ { "id": "region-banskobystricky-kraj-1", "name": "Michal Albert", "ballot": 1, "party": "Bratia Slovenska", "job": "moderátor", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 6.780643270111134, "low80_pct": 1.370508825718361, "high80_pct": 14.00475182124655, "win_probability": 0.00108, "fundamental_pct": 10.249241240206446, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07468, "previous_pct": 3.5006087372276085 }, { "id": "region-banskobystricky-kraj-2", "name": "Marian Kotleba", "ballot": 2, "party": "Kotlebovci - ľudová strana naše Slovensko", "job": "predseda politickej strany", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 10.146558319870154, "low80_pct": 3.133442257064609, "high80_pct": 18.80291175094732, "win_probability": 0.00238, "fundamental_pct": 9.886955422677197, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07086, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-banskobystricky-kraj-3", "name": "Ondrej Lunter", "ballot": 3, "party": "nezávislý kandidát", "job": "predseda samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 54.030400983233584, "low80_pct": 40.38162504349569, "high80_pct": 67.52261074930702, "win_probability": 0.98484, "fundamental_pct": 30.962936018331376, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.45558, "previous_pct": 47.53473745434471 }, { "id": "region-banskobystricky-kraj-4", "name": "Roman Malatinec", "ballot": 4, "party": "Strana vidieka", "job": "poslanec národnej rady", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 7.475597137362154, "low80_pct": 1.6851839645495454, "high80_pct": 15.075469079455257, "win_probability": 0.00084, "fundamental_pct": 16.692083696441617, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.15814, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-banskobystricky-kraj-5", "name": "Peter Plančík", "ballot": 5, "party": "Komunistická strana Slovenska", "job": "SZČO", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 2.382512210036342, "low80_pct": 0.043408123709066763, "high80_pct": 6.376756999419412, "win_probability": 4e-05, "fundamental_pct": 9.886955422677197, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.07188, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-banskobystricky-kraj-6", "name": "Jaroslav Rusina", "ballot": 6, "party": "nezávislý kandidát", "job": "servisný špecialista", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 3.6191834668488196, "low80_pct": 0.24509017087691662, "high80_pct": 8.853758638442317, "win_probability": 0.00018, "fundamental_pct": 11.42848109952932, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08846, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-banskobystricky-kraj-7", "name": "Miroslav Suja", "ballot": 7, "party": "Republika", "job": "konateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 15.565104612537823, "low80_pct": 6.664490447659919, "high80_pct": 25.959275819401988, "win_probability": 0.01064, "fundamental_pct": 10.89334710013684, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.0804, "previous_pct": 9.42926571996116 } ], "source": "mv-vuc26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "scio-banskobystricky", "effective_n": 15.749013123685915, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0 } ], "concentration": 21.749013123685913, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [] }, { "id": "region-presovsky-kraj", "name": "Prešovský kraj", "category": "region", "candidates": [ { "id": "region-presovsky-kraj-1", "name": "Drahomír Čureja", "ballot": 1, "party": "nezávislý kandidát", "job": "živnostník", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 2.959813001274375, "low80_pct": 0.891110384304332, "high80_pct": 5.5428147819121, "win_probability": 0.0, "fundamental_pct": 8.676952038794823, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.06548, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-presovsky-kraj-2", "name": "Marián Geci", "ballot": 2, "party": "nezávislý kandidát", "job": "finančný poradca-podnikateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 4.400201710274968, "low80_pct": 1.8079926560791864, "high80_pct": 7.502086819181484, "win_probability": 0.0, 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"event_source": "https://www.noviny.sk/slovensko/1271936-po-lassakovej-sa-aj-monika-leskova-vzdala-sa-kandidatury-na-post-predsednicky-psk", "estimate_pct": 0, "low80_pct": 0, "high80_pct": 0, "win_probability": 0, "fundamental_pct": 0, "fundamental_win_probability": 0 }, { "id": "region-presovsky-kraj-6", "name": "Judita Laššáková", "ballot": 6, "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Bratia Slovenska", "job": "europoslankyňa", "active": false, "event_source": "https://www.noviny.sk/slovensko/1271936-po-lassakovej-sa-aj-monika-leskova-vzdala-sa-kandidatury-na-post-predsednicky-psk", "estimate_pct": 0, "low80_pct": 0, "high80_pct": 0, "win_probability": 0, "fundamental_pct": 0, "fundamental_win_probability": 0 }, { "id": "region-presovsky-kraj-7", "name": "Monika Lešková", "ballot": 7, "party": "Slovenská národná strana", "job": "prednostka okresného úradu", "active": false, "event_source": "https://www.noviny.sk/slovensko/1271936-po-lassakovej-sa-aj-monika-leskova-vzdala-sa-kandidatury-na-post-predsednicky-psk", "estimate_pct": 0, "low80_pct": 0, "high80_pct": 0, "win_probability": 0, "fundamental_pct": 0, "fundamental_win_probability": 0 }, { "id": "region-presovsky-kraj-8", "name": "Milan Majerský", "ballot": 8, "party": "Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie, Hnutie Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Za ľudí, Konzervatívci - kresťanská únia, Progresívne Slovensko", "job": "predseda samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 46.987952292928284, "low80_pct": 40.068516457347144, "high80_pct": 54.00778254512315, "win_probability": 0.93956, "fundamental_pct": 24.913396762113234, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.34964, "previous_pct": 42.01432387967337 }, { "id": "region-presovsky-kraj-9", "name": "Milan Mazurek", "ballot": 9, "party": "Republika", "job": "europoslanec", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 32.15311661164974, "low80_pct": 25.711561094355332, "high80_pct": 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"withdrawn_mass": 0.15151515151515152 }, { "id": "ako-psk", "effective_n": 69.64837380285131, "withdrawn_mass": 0.03896103896103896 } ], "concentration": 80, "transfer_mass": 0.05641520500033584, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [ "Časť meranej podpory je neistá pre odstúpenia alebo nerozhodnutých. Presun je modelový scenár, nie nameraný prechod voličov." ] }, { "id": "region-kosicky-kraj", "name": "Košický kraj", "category": "region", "candidates": [ { "id": "region-kosicky-kraj-1", "name": "Tibor Géci", "ballot": 1, "party": "Jednota Slovanov", "job": "podnikateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 5.503380019196291, "low80_pct": 0.8244972734277553, "high80_pct": 11.93991421175993, "win_probability": 0.00158, "fundamental_pct": 10.111465597123564, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.0667, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-kosicky-kraj-2", "name": "Džemal Kodrazi", "ballot": 2, "party": "nezávislý kandidát", "job": "podnikateľ, SZČO", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 4.39082522009024, "low80_pct": 0.4464496697764462, "high80_pct": 10.09302298590239, "win_probability": 0.00068, "fundamental_pct": 11.857820397361008, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08312, "previous_pct": 1.4031922856970165 }, { "id": "region-kosicky-kraj-3", "name": "Marián Porvažník", "ballot": 3, "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, Hnutie Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Kdh - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie, Demokrati, Za ľudí, Občianska konzervatívna strana, Demokratická strana - občianski demokrati Slovenska", "job": "právnik, ekonóm, podnikateľ", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 26.926599999567628, "low80_pct": 15.389693338778274, "high80_pct": 39.49655466955868, "win_probability": 0.22666, "fundamental_pct": 13.109892154612876, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.09862, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-kosicky-kraj-4", "name": "Monika Sofiya Soročinová", "ballot": 4, "party": "nezávislá kandidátka", "job": "právnička, mediátorka, odborníčka na zahraničnú politiku a medzinárodné vzťahy", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 6.789803455580912, "low80_pct": 1.3423242762215069, "high80_pct": 13.980083854353053, "win_probability": 0.00276, "fundamental_pct": 12.268250137090057, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.08882, "previous_pct": 4.7131080848610525 }, { "id": "region-kosicky-kraj-5", "name": "Igor Šimko", "ballot": 5, "party": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Smer - sociálna demokracia, Republika, Právo na pravdu, Slovenská národná strana, Strana vidieka, Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti, Bratia Slovenska", "job": "poslanec parlamentu", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 17.788867365266327, "low80_pct": 8.26275535217642, "high80_pct": 28.55058064778759, "win_probability": 0.05558, "fundamental_pct": 19.732768664764507, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.1904, "previous_pct": null }, { "id": "region-kosicky-kraj-6", "name": "Rastislav Trnka", "ballot": 6, "party": "nezávislý kandidát", "job": "predseda samosprávneho kraja", "active": true, "estimate_pct": 38.60052394029861, "low80_pct": 25.607867811341997, "high80_pct": 52.11213443506338, "win_probability": 0.71274, "fundamental_pct": 32.91980304904799, "fundamental_win_probability": 0.47234, "previous_pct": 51.31183135655869 } ], "source": "mv-vuc26", "polls_used": [ { "id": "scio-kosicky", "effective_n": 15.749013123685915, "withdrawn_mass": 0.0 } ], "concentration": 21.749013123685913, "transfer_mass": 0.0, "history_year": 2022, "has_matching_history": true, "evidence": "polls+fundamentals", "notes": [] } ], "backtest": { "races": 73, "candidates": 271, "mae_pp": 12.73441678315128, "rmse_pp": 15.550123809136924, "winner_accuracy": 0.6986301369863014, "brier": 0.44846393911719934, "log_loss": 0.8350698304089581, "coverage80": 0.8265682656826568, "mean_interval_width_pp": 38.12384671164669 }, "regional_transfer": { "races": 8, "candidates": 73, "mae_pp": 8.114635777932724, "rmse_pp": 11.181285640923633, "winner_accuracy": 0.875, "brier": 0.5915908888888889, "log_loss": 1.3045533492108374, "coverage80": 0.9041095890410958, "mean_interval_width_pp": 25.896222436226974 } }