{ "generated": "2026-10-20T15:50:17", "asof": "2026-10-24", "label": "draft3", "n_sims": 20000, "races": [ { "id": "kraj-za", "name": "Žilinský samosprávny kraj", "office": "predseda VUC", "group": "kraj", "voters": 563965, "incumbent": { "name": "Erika Jurinová", "since": 2017, "party_2022": "OĽANO-NOVA-KÚ-ZMENA ZDOLA, SME RODINA, ZA ĽUDÍ, DS, ODS, ŠANCA, OKS, SaS", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 48.75, "registered_voters": 563965, "voters_participated": 274917, "valid_votes": 249830, "results": [ { "name": "Erika Jurinová", "party": "OĽANO-NOVA-KÚ-ZMENA ZDOLA, SME RODINA, ZA ĽUDÍ, DS, ODS, ŠANCA, OKS, SaS", "votes": 80049, "pct": 32.04 }, { "name": "Igor Choma", "party": "SMER-SD", "votes": 55571, "pct": 22.24 }, { "name": "Igor Janckulík", "party": "KDH, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení, SNS", "votes": 52914, "pct": 21.18 }, { "name": "Peter Slyško", "party": "HLAS-SD", "votes": 17564, "pct": 7.03 }, { "name": "Katarína Boková", "party": "Slovenské Hnutie Obrody", "votes": 11131, "pct": 4.46 }, { "name": "Marián Murín", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 9852, "pct": 3.94 }, { "name": "Miroslav Urban", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 7137, "pct": 2.86 }, { "name": "František Drozd", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 6626, "pct": 2.65 }, { "name": "Andrea Starinská", "party": "NK/NEKA", "votes": 5203, "pct": 2.08 }, { "name": "Daniela Zemanová", "party": "Hnutie ONÁS", "votes": 3783, "pct": 1.51 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/files/OSK2022_SK_csv.zip", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for predseda (P_HL_PRE), aggregated from SU SR precinct CSV (tab02bd/tab06d); pct = votes/valid_votes. Withdrawn candidates (X) remain in SU SR tables with their votes. Cross-check: https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2022" }, "2017": { "turnout_pct": 33.84, "registered_voters": 568708, "voters_participated": 192459, "valid_votes": 187820, "results": [ { "name": "Erika Jurinová", "party": "KDH, NOVA, OKS, OĽANO, SaS", "votes": 82034, "pct": 43.67 }, { "name": "Juraj Blanár", "party": "SMER-SD", "votes": 55931, "pct": 29.77 }, { "name": "Marián Murín", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 19425, "pct": 10.34 }, { "name": "Peter Sagan", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 14323, "pct": 7.62 }, { "name": "Anton Martvoň", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 6615, "pct": 3.52 }, { "name": "Ján Mikolaj", "party": "SNS", "votes": 5010, "pct": 2.66 }, { "name": "Peter Cibulka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2921, "pct": 1.55 }, { "name": "Stanislav Pirošík", "party": "KSS, VZDOR", "votes": 946, "pct": 0.5 }, { "name": "Kristián Hoffmann", "party": "SZS", "votes": 615, "pct": 0.32, "note": "withdrew (SU SR poznamka 0)" } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/files/OSK_2017_xlsx.zip", "note": "Official SU SR tab02a (summary) and tab06b (chair results by kraj). Candidates marked withdrawn (poznamka 0) flagged. Cross-check: https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017" } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "AKO", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-16", "n": null, "sponsor": "JOJ 24", "results": { "Erika Jurinová": 48.5, "Igor Choma": 17.3, "Anna Belousovová": 14.3, "Martin Kapitulík": 11.8, "Adam Lučanský": 6.2, "Jana Chlustinová": 1.2, "Milan Pova": 0.7 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://joj24.noviny.sk/prieskumy/1265252-volebny-prieskum-joj-24-v-zilinskom-kraji-jedno-meno-ziskalo-takmer-polovicu-volicov", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "SANEP (for Kanal1)", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-01", "n": 1050, "sponsor": null, "results": { "Erika Jurinová": 35.4, "Igor Choma": 31.2, "Martin Kapitulík": 21.3, "Anna Belousovová": 10.1, "Milan Pova": 1.1, "Jana Chlustinová": 0.9 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://kanal1.sk/exkluzivny-prieskum-pre-kanal1-kto-by-vyhral-volby-v-zilinskom-kraji-keby-sa-konali-dnes-vyzera-to-na-tesny-suboj-dvoch-kandidatov/", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "unknown agency (for ta3)", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-17", "n": null, "sponsor": null, "results": { "Erika Jurinová": 31.1, "Igor Choma": 29.3, "Martin Kapitulík": 21.1, "Anna Belousovová": 7.4, "Adam Lučanský": 6.3, "Milan Pova": 2.9, "Jana Chlustinová": 1.9 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.ta3.com/clanok/1071773/prieskum-pre-ta3-o-kreslo-zupana-v-zilinskom-kraji-moze-byt-este-velka-bitka-do-hry-vstupuje-aj-treti-kandidat", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Erika Jurinová": 1.15, "Martin Kapitulík": 5.5, "Igor Choma": 6.0, "Jana Chlustinová": 88.0, "Milan Pova": 88.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Erika Jurinová": 1.12, "Martin Kapitulík": 6.0, "Igor Choma": 7.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Erika Jurinová": 1.1, "Martin Kapitulík": 5.5, "Igor Choma": 7.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.829, "poll_sd": 0.064, "n_polls": 3 }, "notes": "Effective field reduced to 5 (Jurinová, Choma, Kapitulík, Chlustinová, Pova); Lučanský and Belousovová stay on ballot but their votes are not counted. If Lučanský+Belousovová Sept shares (20.5 pp) transferred fully to Choma he would reach ~38 % of Sept decided base vs Jurinová 48.5 % – still behind; bookmakers (Jurinová 1.10-1.15) agree. Kapitulík is priced 2nd by bookmakers (5.5-6.0) ahead of Choma despite lower poll share. Ballot numbers follow MV SR/STVR list order (alphabetical, as on SU SR ballots); confirm against official ŽSK PDF. Official ŽSK candidate PDF not fetched directly (Exa out of credits; Firecrawl rate-limited).", "sources": [ "https://joj24.noviny.sk/prieskumy/1265252-volebny-prieskum-joj-24-v-zilinskom-kraji-jedno-meno-ziskalo-takmer-polovicu-volicov", "https://spravy.stvr.sk/volby-2026/volby-do-vuc/?kraj=SK5", "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/files/OSK_2017_xlsx.zip", "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/files/OSK2022_SK_csv.zip" ], "withdrawn": [ { "name": "Anna Belousovová", "transfer_to": "Igor Choma" }, { "name": "Adam Lučanský", "transfer_to": "Igor Choma" } ], "candidates": [ { "name": "Erika Jurinová", "party": "Demokrati, DS-ODS, Hnutie SLOVENSKO, KDH, Konzervatívci, NOVA, OKS, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS, ZA ĽUDÍ", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 45.8, "mean": 45.9, "lo80": 30.0, "hi80": 61.9, "p_win": 0.8145, "p_win_blind": 0.7141, "p_win_market": 0.8476, "fund_share": 70.7, "fund_p_win": 0.8862, "swing": 1.101, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.3204 }, { "name": "Igor Choma", "party": "DOMOV-NS, HLAS - sociálna demokracia, SMER - SD", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 31.6, "mean": 32.6, "lo80": 19.0, "hi80": 47.6, "p_win": 0.1445, "p_win_blind": 0.2684, "p_win_market": 0.0672, "fund_share": 12.0, "fund_p_win": 0.0911, "swing": 0.941, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.2224 }, { "name": "Martin Kapitulík", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 16.8, "mean": 17.8, "lo80": 9.9, "hi80": 27.1, "p_win": 0.0401, "p_win_blind": 0.0175, "p_win_market": 0.0839, "fund_share": 4.2, "fund_p_win": 0.0126, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Milan Pova", "party": "KSS", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.7, "mean": 1.9, "lo80": 1.0, "hi80": 3.1, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0019, "fund_share": 2.7, "fund_p_win": 0.0046, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Jana Chlustinová", "party": "SLOVEXIT", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.6, "mean": 1.7, "lo80": 0.9, "hi80": 2.8, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0019, "fund_share": 2.7, "fund_p_win": 0.0056, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "kraj-bb", "name": "Banskobystrický samosprávny kraj", "office": "predseda VUC", "group": "kraj", "voters": 511603, "incumbent": { "name": "Ondrej Lunter", "since": 2022, "party_2022": "NEKA (supported by SaS, KDH, PS, SPOLU, OKS, Aliancia, Hlas-SD)", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 45.14, "registered_voters": 511603, "voters_participated": 230932, "valid_votes": 202879, "results": [ { "name": "Ondrej Lunter", "party": "NEKA (podpora SaS, KDH, PS, SPOLU, OKS, Aliancia, Hlas-SD)", "votes": 96438, "pct": 47.53 }, { "name": "Adrian Polóny", "party": "NEKA (podpora SMER-SD, SNS, SMS, PSN)", "votes": 30436, "pct": 15.0 }, { "name": "Rudolf Huliak", "party": "NK/NEKA", "votes": 23236, "pct": 11.45 }, { "name": "Miroslav Suja", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 19130, "pct": 9.43 }, { "name": "Marek Kotleba", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 14417, "pct": 7.11 }, { "name": "Michal Albert", "party": "KSS", "votes": 7102, "pct": 3.5 }, { "name": "Maroš Čupka", "party": "Socialisti.sk", "votes": 4800, "pct": 2.37 }, { "name": "Marek Modranský", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4749, "pct": 2.34, "note": "withdrew 2022-10-18 in favour of Polóny; still printed/counted in SU SR table" }, { "name": "Jozef Sásik", "party": "Slovenská ľudová strana (SĽS)", "votes": 2571, "pct": 1.27 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/files/OSK2022_SK_csv.zip", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for predseda (P_HL_PRE), aggregated from SU SR precinct CSV (tab02bd/tab06d); pct = votes/valid_votes. Withdrawn candidates (X) remain in SU SR tables with their votes. Party endorsements from https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2022" }, "2017": { "turnout_pct": 40.29, "registered_voters": 526978, "voters_participated": 212360, "valid_votes": 204321, "results": [ { "name": "Ján Lunter", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 99169, "pct": 48.53 }, { "name": "Marian Kotleba", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 47502, "pct": 23.24 }, { "name": "Igor Kašper", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 21741, "pct": 10.64 }, { "name": "Martin Juhaniak", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 19785, "pct": 9.68 }, { "name": "Milan Urbáni", "party": "SMS", "votes": 2478, "pct": 1.21 }, { "name": "Pavel Greksa", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2271, "pct": 1.11 }, { "name": "Martin Klus", "party": "KDH, NOVA, OKS, OĽANO, SaS", "votes": 1877, "pct": 0.91, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Jozef Šimko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1698, "pct": 0.83, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Miroslav Gálik", "party": "NaS - ns", "votes": 1632, "pct": 0.79 }, { "name": "Vojtech Kökény", "party": "SRK", "votes": 1563, "pct": 0.76 }, { "name": "Stanislav Mičev", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1130, "pct": 0.55, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Viliam Baňák", "party": "JEDNOTA-ĽSS", "votes": 997, "pct": 0.48, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Michal Kantor", "party": "SZS", "votes": 725, "pct": 0.35 }, { "name": "Ivan Saktor", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 589, "pct": 0.28, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Alena Pivovarčiová", "party": "NP", "votes": 553, "pct": 0.27 }, { "name": "Jozef Sásik", "party": "SĽS", "votes": 392, "pct": 0.19 }, { "name": "Zdenek Očovan", "party": "NAJ", "votes": 219, "pct": 0.1, "note": "withdrew" } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/files/OSK_2017_xlsx.zip", "note": "Official SU SR tab02a (summary) and tab06b (chair results by kraj). Candidates marked withdrawn (poznamka 0) flagged. Marek Mališ (Strana zelených) withdrew before ballot printing per https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017" } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "AKO", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-16", "n": null, "sponsor": "JOJ 24", "results": { "Ondrej Lunter": 63.2, "Miroslav Suja": 16.8, "Marian Kotleba": 8.6, "Roman Malatinec": 8.5, "Jaroslav Rusina": 2.0, "Michal Albert": 0.6, "Peter Plančík": 0.3 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://joj24.noviny.sk/prieskumy/1266317-kde-ma-lunter-najsilnejsiu-podporu-a-kde-suja-prieskum-joj-24-odhalil-velke-rozdiely-medzi-okresmi", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Ondrej Lunter": 1.01, "Miroslav Suja": 17.0, "Michal Albert": 35.0, "Roman Malatinec": 35.0, "Marian Kotleba": 88.0, "Peter Plančík": 100.0, "Jaroslav Rusina": 100.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Ondrej Lunter": 1.01, "Miroslav Suja": 15.0, "Roman Malatinec": 30.0, "Michal Albert": 30.0, "Marian Kotleba": 80.0, "Jaroslav Rusina": 100.0, "Peter Plančík": 100.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Ondrej Lunter": 1.01, "Miroslav Suja": 15.0, "Roman Malatinec": 20.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.697, "poll_sd": 0.092, "n_polls": 1 }, "notes": "No withdrawals found in BB as of 2026-10-20. Lunter runs as NEKA with cross-camp support (incl. governing Hlas-SD) -> landslide expected; bookmakers 1.01. Anti-Lunter vote split between Suja (Republika), Kotleba (ĽSNS), Malatinec (Strana vidieka), Albert (Bratia Slovenska). An Instagram post cited 'Lunter 55.4 %' from an unidentified poll – unverified, not included. Ballot numbers follow MV SR/STVR list order (alphabetical); confirm against official BBSK list.", "sources": [ "https://my.sme.sk/banska-bystrica/c/kandidati-na-zupana-banskobystricky-kraj-2026-kompletny-zoznam-a-profily-vuc-volby-2026", "https://spravy.stvr.sk/volby-2026/volby-do-vuc/?kraj=SK6", "https://volby.sme.sk/volby-vuc/2026/kandidati/banskobystricky-kraj", "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/files/OSK_2017_xlsx.zip", "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/files/OSK2022_SK_csv.zip", "https://www.pravda.sk/spravy/regionalne-volby-2026/clanok/2053855-bitka-o-banskobystricku-zupu-do-ringu-vstupuje-lunter-malatinec-suja-kotleba-albert-plancik-a-rusina" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Ondrej Lunter", "party": "NEKA", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 57.1, "mean": 56.6, "lo80": 38.5, "hi80": 73.9, "p_win": 0.9736, "p_win_blind": 0.9496, "p_win_market": 0.9834, "fund_share": 42.9, "fund_p_win": 0.6864, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.4753 }, { "name": "Miroslav Suja", "party": "Republika", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 16.5, "mean": 18.2, "lo80": 7.9, "hi80": 30.8, "p_win": 0.0214, "p_win_blind": 0.0462, "p_win_market": 0.0097, "fund_share": 14.9, "fund_p_win": 0.1837, "swing": 0.759, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0943 }, { "name": "Marian Kotleba", "party": "Kotlebovci - Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 7.2, "mean": 8.3, "lo80": 3.3, "hi80": 14.6, "p_win": 0.0011, "p_win_blind": 0.0022, "p_win_market": 0.0006, "fund_share": 4.2, "fund_p_win": 0.0185, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Roman Malatinec", "party": "Strana vidieka", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 7.1, "mean": 8.2, "lo80": 3.3, "hi80": 14.5, "p_win": 0.0029, "p_win_blind": 0.0021, "p_win_market": 0.004, "fund_share": 4.3, "fund_p_win": 0.021, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Jaroslav Rusina", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 3.7, "mean": 4.4, "lo80": 1.7, "hi80": 7.9, "p_win": 0.0002, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0004, "fund_share": 6.7, "fund_p_win": 0.0515, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Michal Albert", "party": "Bratia Slovenska", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.9, "mean": 2.2, "lo80": 0.9, "hi80": 4.0, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0029, "fund_share": 4.1, "fund_p_win": 0.0168, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.035 }, { "name": "Peter Plančík", "party": "Komunistická strana Slovenska", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.8, "mean": 2.1, "lo80": 0.8, "hi80": 3.7, "p_win": 0.0002, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0004, "fund_share": 4.3, "fund_p_win": 0.0221, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "kraj-po", "name": "Prešovský samosprávny kraj", "office": "predseda VUC", "group": "kraj", "voters": 636834, "incumbent": { "name": "Milan Majerský", "since": 2017, "party_2022": "KDH, SME RODINA, SaS, ZA ĽUDÍ", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 47.5, "registered_voters": 636834, "voters_participated": 302512, "valid_votes": 265012, "results": [ { "name": "Milan Majerský", "party": "KDH, SME RODINA, SaS, ZA ĽUDÍ", "votes": 111343, "pct": 42.01 }, { "name": "Michal Kaliňák", "party": "HLAS-SD, SMER-SD, SNS, ALIANCIA", "votes": 83205, "pct": 31.4 }, { "name": "Milan Mazurek", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 28834, "pct": 10.88 }, { "name": "Ján Bync", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 11921, "pct": 4.5 }, { "name": "Michal Biganič", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 8634, "pct": 3.26 }, { "name": "Filip Kuffa", "party": "ŽIVOT", "votes": 6689, "pct": 2.52 }, { "name": "Patrícia Reváková", "party": "NK/NEKA", "votes": 6679, "pct": 2.52 }, { "name": "Ingrid Tomková", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 3788, "pct": 1.43 }, { "name": "Jozef Mihalčin", "party": "SRDCE - SNJ - sv", "votes": 2088, "pct": 0.79, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Ľubomír Goliaš", "party": "Hnutie ONÁS", "votes": 1831, "pct": 0.69, "note": "withdrew" } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/files/OSK2022_SK_csv.zip", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for predseda (P_HL_PRE), aggregated from SU SR precinct CSV (tab02bd/tab06d); pct = votes/valid_votes. Withdrawn candidates (X) remain in SU SR tables with their votes. Cross-check: https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2022" }, "2017": { "turnout_pct": 29.4, "registered_voters": 639324, "voters_participated": 187983, "valid_votes": 179289, "results": [ { "name": "Milan Majerský", "party": "KDH, NOVA, OĽANO, SaS", "votes": 72366, "pct": 40.36 }, { "name": "Peter Chudík", "party": "SMER-SD", "votes": 54914, "pct": 30.62 }, { "name": "Jozef Mihalčin", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 12688, "pct": 7.07 }, { "name": "Ján Garaj", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 10615, "pct": 5.92 }, { "name": "Andrej Gmitter", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 8335, "pct": 4.64 }, { "name": "František Oľha", "party": "ŠANCA", "votes": 5832, "pct": 3.25 }, { "name": "Pavol Gašper", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4165, "pct": 2.32 }, { "name": "Miroslav Škvarek", "party": "SNS", "votes": 3917, "pct": 2.18 }, { "name": "František Bednár", "party": "NAJ", "votes": 2598, "pct": 1.44 }, { "name": "Eduard Markovič", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1749, "pct": 0.97 }, { "name": "Milan Šteiner", "party": "SZS", "votes": 1073, "pct": 0.59, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Jozef Šváč", "party": "NP", "votes": 1037, "pct": 0.57 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/files/OSK_2017_xlsx.zip", "note": "Official SU SR tab02a (summary) and tab06b (chair results by kraj). Candidates marked withdrawn (poznamka 0) flagged. Cross-check: https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017" } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "AKO", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-13", "n": 250, "sponsor": "JOJ 24", "results": { "Milan Majerský": 49.2, "Milan Mazurek": 32.4, "Samuel Migaľ": 7.8, "Marián Geci": 4.0, "Monika Lešková": 3.9, "Drahomír Čureja": 1.9, "Jozef Ištok": 0.6, "Ján Stanko": 0.3, "Ľubomír Goliaš": 0.0 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://joj24.noviny.sk/prieskumy/1272728-majersky-alebo-mazurek-prieskum-joj-24-ukazal-koho-by-volili-ludia-v-presovskom-kraji", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "AKO (for JOJ 24)", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-21", "n": null, "sponsor": null, "results": { "Milan Majerský": 44.8, "Milan Mazurek": 28.8, "Judita Laššáková": 6.5, "Samuel Migaľ": 6.2, "Marián Geci": 5.5, "Drahomír Čureja": 2.3, "Zoltán Kašo": 1.7, "Monika Lešková": 1.4, "Ján Stanko": 1.2, "Jozef Ištok": 1.2, "Ľubomír Goliaš": 0.4 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.infozona.sk/spravodajstvo/aktualny-prieskum-preferencii-v-presovskom-kraji-majersky-to-nema-iste-niektore-okresy-vas-prekvapia/", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Milan Majerský": 1.11, "Milan Mazurek": 6.0, "Samuel Migaľ": 14.0, "Jozef Ištok": 77.0, "Drahomír Čureja": 88.0, "Marián Geci": 88.0, "Ľubomír Goliaš": 88.0, "Zoltán Kašo": 88.0, "Ján Stanko": 88.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Milan Majerský": 1.13, "Milan Mazurek": 5.0, "Samuel Migaľ": 15.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Milan Majerský": 1.11, "Milan Mazurek": 6.0, "Samuel Migaľ": 12.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "Niké", "date": "2026-09-03", "odds": { "Milan Majerský": 1.15, "Milan Mazurek": 4.0, "Judita Laššáková": 15.0, "Samuel Migaľ": 35.0 }, "source": "https://korzar.sme.sk/kosice/c/kurzy-otocili-poradie-favoritov-volieb-kosickeho-primatora-aj-zupana-majersky-sa-este-balit-nemusi" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.794, "poll_sd": 0.071, "n_polls": 2 }, "notes": "Effective field 8 (Čureja, Geci, Goliaš, Ištok, Majerský, Mazurek, Migaľ, Stanko); Kašo, Laššáková, Lešková remain on ballot but votes not counted. Consolidation of nationalist/government vote toward Mazurek (SNS endorsement, Smer withdrawal) is the main risk to Majerský; 2022 Kaliňák (Hlas+Smer) got 31.4 % + Mazurek 10.9 % = 42.3 % vs Majerský 42.0 %, so a fully consolidated anti-Majerský vote would be competitive – but Migaľ (sitting government minister running as independent) splits it. Bookmakers still price Majerský ~1.11-1.13. Ballot numbers follow MV SR/STVR list order (alphabetical); official PSK PDF not parsed.", "sources": [ "https://psk.sk/domov/samosprava/zpsk/volby-do-organov-samospravy/volby-2026/kandidati-na-predsedu-psk-2026/", "https://spravy.stvr.sk/volby-2026/volby-do-vuc/?kraj=SK7", "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/files/OSK_2017_xlsx.zip", "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/files/OSK2022_SK_csv.zip", "https://www.noviny.sk/slovensko/1271936-po-lassakovej-sa-aj-monika-leskova-vzdala-sa-kandidatury-na-post-predsednicky-psk", "https://www.ta3.com/clanok/1068039/presovsky-kraj-caka-suboj-jedenastich-kandidatov-na-zupanske-kreslo-si-robi-zalusk-aj-migal-mazurek-si-lassakova" ], "withdrawn": [ { "name": "Zoltán Kašo", "transfer_to": "Samuel Migaľ" }, { "name": "Judita Laššáková", "transfer_to": null }, { "name": "Monika Lešková", "transfer_to": "Milan Mazurek" } ], "candidates": [ { "name": "Milan Majerský", "party": "Hnutie SLOVENSKO, KDH, Konzervatívci, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS, ZA ĽUDÍ", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 52.2, "mean": 52.0, "lo80": 35.8, "hi80": 68.0, "p_win": 0.8606, "p_win_blind": 0.842, "p_win_market": 0.8535, "fund_share": 61.9, "fund_p_win": 0.8964, "swing": 1.101, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.4201 }, { "name": "Milan Mazurek", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 28.0, "mean": 28.9, "lo80": 16.0, "hi80": 43.6, "p_win": 0.1352, "p_win_blind": 0.1579, "p_win_market": 0.1119, "fund_share": 7.6, "fund_p_win": 0.0519, "swing": 0.759, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.1088 }, { "name": "Samuel Migaľ", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 6.7, "mean": 7.4, "lo80": 3.6, "hi80": 12.2, "p_win": 0.0016, "p_win_blind": 0.0001, "p_win_market": 0.0252, "fund_share": 3.3, "fund_p_win": 0.0124, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Marián Geci", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 4.6, "mean": 5.1, "lo80": 2.4, "hi80": 8.4, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0024, "fund_share": 3.4, "fund_p_win": 0.0101, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Drahomír Čureja", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 2.5, "mean": 2.8, "lo80": 1.3, "hi80": 4.7, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0024, "fund_share": 3.4, "fund_p_win": 0.0112, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Jozef Ištok", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.5, "mean": 1.7, "lo80": 0.8, "hi80": 2.9, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0028, "fund_share": 3.4, "fund_p_win": 0.0107, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Ján Stanko", "party": "SLOVEXIT", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.1, "mean": 1.2, "lo80": 0.6, "hi80": 2.1, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0024, "fund_share": 2.1, "fund_p_win": 0.0034, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Ľubomír Goliaš", "party": "Jednota Slovanov", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 0.6, "mean": 0.7, "lo80": 0.3, "hi80": 1.2, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0024, "fund_share": 1.9, "fund_p_win": 0.0039, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0069 } ] }, { "id": "kraj-ke", "name": "Košický samosprávny kraj", "office": "predseda VUC", "group": "kraj", "voters": 627195, "incumbent": { "name": "Rastislav Trnka", "since": 2017, "party_2022": "KDH, ALIANCIA, STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI, ŠANCA, DS", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 39.7, "registered_voters": 627195, "voters_participated": 249000, "valid_votes": 215081, "results": [ { "name": "Rastislav Trnka", "party": "KDH, ALIANCIA, STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI, ŠANCA, DS", "votes": 110362, "pct": 51.31 }, { "name": "Viliam Zahorčák", "party": "SMER-SD, SME RODINA, SNS, ŽIVOT, SMS, NK/NEKA", "votes": 32287, "pct": 15.01 }, { "name": "Róbert Suja", "party": "HLAS-SD", "votes": 15040, "pct": 6.99 }, { "name": "Juraj Sinay", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 14631, "pct": 6.8 }, { "name": "Erik Ňarjaš", "party": "OĽANO-NOVA-KÚ-ZMENA ZDOLA, ZA ĽUDÍ, ...", "votes": 11927, "pct": 5.55 }, { "name": "Monika Sofiya Soročinová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 10137, "pct": 4.71 }, { "name": "Tomáš Janco", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 4855, "pct": 2.26 }, { "name": "Juraj Ďurove", "party": "Socialisti.sk", "votes": 3624, "pct": 1.68 }, { "name": "Stanislav Mizík", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 3416, "pct": 1.59 }, { "name": "Vladislav Stanko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3239, "pct": 1.51 }, { "name": "Džemal Kodrazi", "party": "PRINCÍP", "votes": 3018, "pct": 1.4 }, { "name": "Ivan Hriczko", "party": "SIM", "votes": 2545, "pct": 1.18 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/files/OSK2022_SK_csv.zip", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for predseda (P_HL_PRE), aggregated from SU SR precinct CSV (tab02bd/tab06d); pct = votes/valid_votes. Withdrawn candidates (X) remain in SU SR tables with their votes. Cross-check: https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2022" }, "2017": { "turnout_pct": 26.73, "registered_voters": 630178, "voters_participated": 168454, "valid_votes": 157651, "results": [ { "name": "Rastislav Trnka", "party": "KDH, NOVA, OĽANO, SaS, ŠANCA", "votes": 59599, "pct": 37.8 }, { "name": "Richard Raši", "party": "STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI, SMER-SD, SMK-MKP, SZS", "votes": 58724, "pct": 37.24 }, { "name": "Karol Pataky", "party": "MOST - HÍD, SKOK - ELD", "votes": 14843, "pct": 9.41 }, { "name": "Štefan Surmánek", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 7375, "pct": 4.67 }, { "name": "Róbert Bačinský", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4903, "pct": 3.11 }, { "name": "Jarmila Tkáčová", "party": "SNS", "votes": 3638, "pct": 2.3 }, { "name": "Oliver Petrík", "party": "JEDNOTA-ĽSS", "votes": 1730, "pct": 1.09 }, { "name": "Jozef Bobík", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1222, "pct": 0.77, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Lukáš Sisák", "party": "KSS", "votes": 1169, "pct": 0.74 }, { "name": "Jozef Červeňák", "party": "RIS", "votes": 1049, "pct": 0.66 }, { "name": "Jaroslav Džunko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1021, "pct": 0.64 }, { "name": "Vladislav Stanko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 753, "pct": 0.47, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Adam Šepetka", "party": "NAJ", "votes": 655, "pct": 0.41, "note": "withdrew" }, { "name": "Rudolf Botka", "party": "NP", "votes": 564, "pct": 0.35 }, { "name": "Ján Struk", "party": "SMS", "votes": 406, "pct": 0.25, "note": "withdrew" } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/files/OSK_2017_xlsx.zip", "note": "Official SU SR tab02a (summary) and tab06b (chair results by kraj). Candidates marked withdrawn (poznamka 0) flagged. Cross-check: https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017" } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "SANEP (for ta3)", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-18", "n": 950, "sponsor": null, "results": { "Rastislav Trnka": 38.3, "Marián Porvažník": 32.2, "Igor Šimko": 19.4, "Monika Sofiya Soročinová": 7.7, "Džemal Kodrazi": 2.4 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.pravda.sk/spravy/regionalne-volby-2026/clanok/2062305-prieskum-sanep-kto-ovladne-kosice-a-kto-zupu-novy-prieskum-odhalil-favoritov-v-hre-su-aj-tesne-suboje", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "AKO (JOJ 24)", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-12", "n": null, "results": { "Rastislav Trnka": 42.4, "Marián Porvažník": 25.7, "Igor Šimko": 19.7 }, "source": "https://joj24.noviny.sk/prieskumy/1274835-kto-ovladne-kosicky-kraj-prieskum-joj-24-ukazal-vyrazny-naskok-jedneho-z-kandidatov", "note": "fieldwork dates not published; Géci (withdrew 12.10) still listed, so end date set to 12.10 (assumption); only the three leaders are used" } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Rastislav Trnka": 1.75, "Marián Porvažník": 1.95, "Igor Šimko": 7.5, "Monika Sofiya Soročinová": 80.0, "Džemal Kodrazi": 500.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Rastislav Trnka": 1.8, "Marián Porvažník": 1.9, "Igor Šimko": 7.0, "Monika Sofiya Soročinová": 80.0, "Džemal Kodrazi": 400.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Rastislav Trnka": 1.65, "Marián Porvažník": 1.95, "Igor Šimko": 7.0, "Monika Sofiya Soročinová": 50.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "Niké", "date": "2026-09-03", "odds": { "Marián Porvažník": 1.67, "Rastislav Trnka": 2.2, "Igor Šimko": 7.5, "Monika Sofiya Soročinová": 15.0 }, "source": "https://korzar.sme.sk/kosice/c/kurzy-otocili-poradie-favoritov-volieb-kosickeho-primatora-aj-zupana-majersky-sa-este-balit-nemusi" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.836, "poll_sd": 0.062, "n_polls": 2 }, "notes": "Most competitive of the four. Effective field 5 (Kodrazi, Porvažník, Soročinová, Šimko, Trnka); Géci stays on ballot, votes not counted. Polls (AKO: Trnka +16.7 pp) and bookmakers (near coin-flip, Trnka 1.65-1.80 vs Porvažník 1.90-1.95) diverge strongly. Trnka draws cross-camp support (in AKO leads among SNS, Aliancia, Sme rodina, KDH, Hlas voters; strong in Trebišov, Spišská Nová Ves, Gelnica and among Hungarians); Porvažník leads in Košice I/II and Rožňava and among university-educated. Trnka won 2022 with KDH+Aliancia backing that he no longer has formally (KDH now backs Porvažník). Fortuna specials (2026-10-20): 'who gets higher %' Trnka 2.05 vs Becík (NR) 1.60; Porvažník 1.75 vs Mazurek 1.90. Ballot numbers follow MV SR/STVR list order (alphabetical); official KSK PDF (static.kosice.sk link) not parsed. The STVR table did not flag Géci's withdrawal with X in all views – rely on news/KSK notice.", "sources": [ "https://spravy.stvr.sk/volby-2026/volby-do-vuc/?kraj=SK8", "https://static.kosice.sk/files/manual/volby/volby2026_vuc_zoznam_zaregistrovanych_predseda.pdf", "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/files/OSK_2017_xlsx.zip", "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/files/OSK2022_SK_csv.zip", "https://www.kosickazupa.sk/uradna-tabula/volby-2026" ], "withdrawn": [ { "name": "Tibor Géci", "transfer_to": "Igor Šimko" } ], "candidates": [ { "name": "Rastislav Trnka", "party": "NEKA", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 40.0, "mean": 40.4, "lo80": 27.2, "hi80": 54.2, "p_win": 0.5889, "p_win_blind": 0.6981, "p_win_market": 0.4606, "fund_share": 37.4, "fund_p_win": 0.5381, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.5131 }, { "name": "Marián Porvažník", "party": "Demokrati, DS-ODS, Hnutie Slovensko, KDH, OKS, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS, Za ľudí", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 27.9, "mean": 28.8, "lo80": 17.3, "hi80": 41.7, "p_win": 0.3391, "p_win_blind": 0.2391, "p_win_market": 0.4498, "fund_share": 18.5, "fund_p_win": 0.2225, "swing": 1.101, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Igor Šimko", "party": "Bratia Slovenska, Hlas-SD, Právo na pravdu, Republika, SNS, Smer-SD, STANK, Strana vidieka", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 19.2, "mean": 20.2, "lo80": 11.3, "hi80": 30.6, "p_win": 0.0705, "p_win_blind": 0.0626, "p_win_market": 0.078, "fund_share": 16.5, "fund_p_win": 0.1893, "swing": 1.078, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Monika Sofiya Soročinová", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 7.0, "mean": 7.5, "lo80": 4.1, "hi80": 11.7, "p_win": 0.0013, "p_win_blind": 0.0001, "p_win_market": 0.0113, "fund_share": 5.3, "fund_p_win": 0.0268, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0471 }, { "name": "Džemal Kodrazi", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 2.9, "mean": 3.1, "lo80": 1.6, "hi80": 4.9, "p_win": 0.0002, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0004, "fund_share": 5.0, "fund_p_win": 0.0232, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.014 } ] }, { "id": "kraj-ba", "name": "Bratislavský samosprávny kraj", "office": "predseda VUC", "group": "kraj", "voters": 604207, "incumbent": { "name": "Juraj Droba", "since": 2017, "party_2022": "SaS, Progresívne Slovensko, Team Bratislava", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 38.6, "registered_voters": 604207, "participating_voters": 233255, "valid_votes": 215351, "results": [ { "name": "Juraj Droba", "party": "SaS, Progresívne Slovensko, Team Bratislava", "votes": 136983, "pct": 63.6 }, { "name": "Ján Mažgút", "party": "SMER - SD, SNS", "votes": 28911, "pct": 13.42 }, { "name": "Ivan Bošňák", "party": "DS, ODS, SPOLU, ŠANCA", "votes": 18445, "pct": 8.56 }, { "name": "Dušan Velič", "party": "ZA ĽUDÍ, SME RODINA, KDH, Magyar Fórum", "votes": 17420, "pct": 8.08 }, { "name": "Milan Lopašovský", "party": "STRANA MODERNÉHO SLOVENSKA (SMS)", "votes": 4449, "pct": 2.06 }, { "name": "Štefan Zima", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 3751, "pct": 1.74 }, { "name": "Magdaléna Sulanová", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 2927, "pct": 1.35 }, { "name": "Andrej Trnovec", "party": "Slovenská ľudová strana (SĽS)", "votes": 2465, "pct": 1.14 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/osk/2022/OSK2022_SK_tab06a.csv", "source_turnout": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/sk/suhrnne_vysledky.html" }, "2017": { "turnout_pct": 31.34, "registered_voters": 584995, "participating_voters": 183342, "valid_votes": 180490, "results": [ { "name": "Juraj Droba", "party": "SaS, OĽaNO, SMK-MKP, NOVA, OKS, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 36864, "pct": 20.42 }, { "name": "Rudolf Kusý", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 33489, "pct": 18.55 }, { "name": "Milan Ftáčnik", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 31638, "pct": 17.52 }, { "name": "Ján Mrva", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 28842, "pct": 15.97 }, { "name": "Pavol Frešo", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 19640, "pct": 10.88 }, { "name": "Daniel Krajcer", "party": "MOST - HÍD, SKOK - ELD, SZ", "votes": 13934, "pct": 7.72 }, { "name": "Ľubomír Huďo", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 6063, "pct": 3.35 }, { "name": "Jozef Uhler", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3954, "pct": 2.19 }, { "name": "Natália Hanulíková", "party": "SZS", "votes": 1444, "pct": 0.8 }, { "name": "Martin Jakubec", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1219, "pct": 0.67 }, { "name": "Lukáš Parízek", "party": "SNS", "votes": 702, "pct": 0.38 }, { "name": "Rastislav Blaško", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 631, "pct": 0.34 }, { "name": "Jalal Suleiman", "party": "KSS", "votes": 548, "pct": 0.3 }, { "name": "Jozef Danko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 525, "pct": 0.29 }, { "name": "Andrej Trnovec", "party": "SĽS", "votes": 454, "pct": 0.25 }, { "name": "Milan Lopašovský", "party": "SMS", "votes": 182, "pct": 0.1 }, { "name": "Marián Leinerovič", "party": "NP", "votes": 181, "pct": 0.1 }, { "name": "Ľubomír Kolárik", "party": "SZSZO", "votes": 180, "pct": 0.09 } ], "source": "https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017", "source_note": "Figures from SK Wikipedia (cites ŠÚ SR); ŠÚ SR 2017 page https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/sk/data01.html is JS-rendered and was not machine-readable." } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Politologické prieskumy", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-21", "n": 775, "sponsor": null, "results": { "Juraj Droba": 49.4, "Zuzana Krajčovičová": 8.8, "Dávid Staruch": 4.8, "Rastislav Gajarský": 4.3, "Ján Chalabala": 2.4, "Ľudovít Líška": 1.4, "Peter Poláček": 0.6 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DeG2fVMirwT/", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Juraj Droba": 1.01, "Zuzana Krajčovičová": 14.0, "Dávid Staruch": 16.0, "Rastislav Gajarský": 25.0, "Ján Chalabala": 88.0, "Ľudovít Líška": 88.0, "Peter Poláček": 88.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Juraj Droba": 1.01, "Zuzana Krajčovičová": 15.0, "Dávid Staruch": 18.0, "Rastislav Gajarský": 25.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Juraj Droba": 1.01, "Zuzana Krajčovičová": 10.0, "Dávid Staruch": 15.0, "Rastislav Gajarský": 15.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.731, "poll_sd": 0.085, "n_polls": 1 }, "notes": "Safest race of the four: incumbent Droba backed by the whole liberal opposition (SaS, PS, Demokrati, Team Bratislava); won 2022 with 63.6 %. Government coalition (Smer, Hlas, SNS) unites behind low-profile Gajarský (4.3 % in only poll) - in 2022 Smer+SNS candidate got 13.4 %. Krajčovičová (Právo na pravdu + SaNK) is the populist/anti-establishment option; Staruch is an ex-SaS independent splitting the liberal vote marginally. KDH and Hnutie Slovensko do not formally nominate anyone (not on Droba's nomination). Bookmakers price Droba at 1.01 everywhere. No AKO/JOJ24 BSK poll found (JOJ24 published AKO regional polls for TT, TN, NR, PSK, KSK). No withdrawals known as of 2026-10-20 (national withdrawals so far: Laššáková PSK, Lučanský ŽSK, Belousovová ŽSK). Turnout 2022 was combined-election turnout (38.60 %); 2017 standalone regional election 31.34 %.", "sources": [ "https://bratislavskykraj.sk/volby-do-vuc-2026/", "https://bratislavskykraj.sk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ZOZNAM-ZAREGISTROVANYCH-KANDIDATOV-pre-volby-predsedu-BSK.pdf", "https://hnonline.sk/volby-2026/volby-do-vuc-2026/96307631-vuc-volby-2026-bratislavsky-kraj-zoznam-kandidatov-zupan-a-poslanci", "https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017", "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/osk/2022/OSK2022_SK_tab06a.csv", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/pGWwtjf/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-predsedov-samospravnych-krajov-vo-volbach-do-vuc-2026/" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Juraj Droba", "party": "Sloboda a solidarita, Progresívne Slovensko, Demokrati, Team Bratislava", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 67.8, "mean": 66.7, "lo80": 50.4, "hi80": 81.4, "p_win": 0.991, "p_win_blind": 0.9957, "p_win_market": 0.9816, "fund_share": 65.5, "fund_p_win": 0.881, "swing": 0.959, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.636 }, { "name": "Zuzana Krajčovičová", "party": "Právo na pravdu, Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 9.2, "mean": 10.5, "lo80": 4.3, "hi80": 18.2, "p_win": 0.0049, "p_win_blind": 0.0027, "p_win_market": 0.0089, "fund_share": 2.1, "fund_p_win": 0.0037, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Rastislav Gajarský", "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Slovenská národná strana", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 7.4, "mean": 8.6, "lo80": 3.3, "hi80": 15.4, "p_win": 0.0022, "p_win_blind": 0.0014, "p_win_market": 0.0036, "fund_share": 11.0, "fund_p_win": 0.0891, "swing": 0.971, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Dávid Staruch", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 6.0, "mean": 6.9, "lo80": 2.8, "hi80": 12.3, "p_win": 0.0014, "p_win_blind": 0.0003, "p_win_market": 0.0056, "fund_share": 4.4, "fund_p_win": 0.0165, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Ján Chalabala", "party": "Komunistická strana Slovenska", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 3.0, "mean": 3.5, "lo80": 1.4, "hi80": 6.2, "p_win": 0.0002, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0003, "fund_share": 2.2, "fund_p_win": 0.0031, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Ľudovít Líška", "party": "Jednota Slovanov", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 2.0, "mean": 2.4, "lo80": 0.9, "hi80": 4.2, "p_win": 0.0002, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0003, "fund_share": 2.2, "fund_p_win": 0.0035, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Peter Poláček", "party": "Slovexit", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.2, "mean": 1.5, "lo80": 0.6, "hi80": 2.6, "p_win": 0.0002, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0003, "fund_share": 2.2, "fund_p_win": 0.0032, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "kraj-tt", "name": "Trnavský samosprávny kraj", "office": "predseda VUC", "group": "kraj", "voters": 471563, "incumbent": { "name": "Jozef Viskupič", "since": 2017, "party_2022": "OĽANO-NOVA-KÚ-ZMENA ZDOLA, SaS, KDH, SPOLU, ŠANCA, ODS, ZA ĽUDÍ, SME RODINA, OKS, DS, Magyar Fórum", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 42.87, "registered_voters": 471563, "participating_voters": 202166, "valid_votes": 180834, "results": [ { "name": "Jozef Viskupič", "party": "OĽANO-NOVA-KÚ-ZMENA ZDOLA, SaS, KDH, SPOLU, ŠANCA, ODS, ZA ĽUDÍ, SME RODINA, OKS, DS, Magyar Fórum", "votes": 69743, "pct": 38.56 }, { "name": "József Berényi", "party": "SZÖVETSÉG - ALIANCIA", "votes": 38056, "pct": 21.04 }, { "name": "Martin Červenka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 29157, "pct": 16.12 }, { "name": "Zdenko Čambal", "party": "SNS, SMER - SD", "votes": 21426, "pct": 11.84 }, { "name": "Martin Beluský", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 8145, "pct": 4.5 }, { "name": "Veronika Temňáková", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 4515, "pct": 2.49 }, { "name": "Roland Hakszer", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3129, "pct": 1.73 }, { "name": "Zdenko Rosina", "party": "NK/NEKA", "votes": 2631, "pct": 1.45 }, { "name": "Roman Chudý", "party": "ŽIVOT", "votes": 2392, "pct": 1.32 }, { "name": "Ivan Stanovič", "party": "Hnutie ONÁS", "votes": 1640, "pct": 0.9 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/osk/2022/OSK2022_SK_tab06a.csv", "source_turnout": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/sk/suhrnne_vysledky.html" }, "2017": { "turnout_pct": 24.74, "registered_voters": 473880, "participating_voters": 117252, "valid_votes": 113229, "results": [ { "name": "Jozef Viskupič", "party": "OĽaNO, SaS, KDH, OKS, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 48584, "pct": 42.9 }, { "name": "Tibor Mikuš", "party": "NEKA (supported by SMER-SD, SNS, SMS, SZS, KSS)", "votes": 34601, "pct": 30.55 }, { "name": "József Berényi", "party": "SMK-MKP", "votes": 19414, "pct": 17.14 }, { "name": "Konrád Rigó", "party": "MOST - HÍD", "votes": 6362, "pct": 5.61 }, { "name": "Márius Novák", "party": "NP", "votes": 2268, "pct": 2.0 }, { "name": "Jaroslav Cehlárik", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2000, "pct": 1.76 } ], "source": "https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017", "source_note": "Figures from SK Wikipedia (cites ŠÚ SR); ŠÚ SR 2017 page https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/sk/data01.html is JS-rendered and was not machine-readable." } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "AKO", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-17", "n": null, "sponsor": "JOJ 24", "results": { "Jozef Viskupič": 51.8, "József Berényi": 18.1, "Matej Lančarič": 11.7, "Peter Hambálek": 9.6, "Róbert Dohál": 5.9, "Jaroslav Cehlárik": 2.0, "Štefan Pollák": 0.9 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://joj24.noviny.sk/prieskumy/1271485-viskupic-ma-pred-zupnymi-volbami-vyrazny-naskok-prieskum-ukazal-aj-prekvapenie-na-druhom-mieste", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "Politologické prieskumy", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-25", "n": 701, "sponsor": null, "results": { "Jozef Viskupič": 35.5, "József Berényi": 18.5, "Peter Hambálek": 9.3, "Matej Lančarič": 4.5, "Róbert Dohál": 2.0, "Štefan Pollák": 0.8, "Jaroslav Cehlárik": 0.8 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DePEPk9ivUk/", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Jozef Viskupič": 1.02, "Peter Hambálek": 11.0, "József Berényi": 15.0, "Matej Lančarič": 30.0, "Róbert Dohál": 45.0, "Jaroslav Cehlárik": 50.0, "Štefan Pollák": 75.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Jozef Viskupič": 1.02, "Peter Hambálek": 10.0, "József Berényi": 18.0, "Matej Lančarič": 30.0, "Róbert Dohál": 50.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Jozef Viskupič": 1.03, "Peter Hambálek": 8.0, "József Berényi": 13.0, "Matej Lančarič": 15.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.795, "poll_sd": 0.071, "n_polls": 2 }, "notes": "Viskupič (now PS) has the broadest coalition of any opposition-camp candidate (PS, SaS, KDH, Demokrati, Hnutie Slovensko, Maďarské fórum, OKS); both polls give him ~50-52 % of decided. Main structural challenger is Berényi (Maďarská aliancia) whose vote is concentrated among Hungarian voters in Dunajská Streda/Galanta (AKO: Berényi 53 % vs Viskupič 29 % in DS district; 64 % among Hungarian-nationality respondents). Polls disagree on 2nd-4th order: AKO has Lančarič 3rd (11.7 %), Politologické prieskumy has Hambálek 3rd (13.4 %). Government coalition vote is weak here (2022 Smer+SNS 11.8 %). In 2022 Viskupič won with only 38.6 % thanks to fragmentation; independent Červenka (16.1 % in 2022) is not running. Pollák (SOS) is from Veľké Blahovo (Dunajská Streda district) and is reported as SOS regional chair for Nitra region. No withdrawals known as of 2026-10-20. AKO n not published.", "sources": [ "https://osam.trnava-vuc.sk/OSamApi/fileDownloadEUT/d32d2e09-f347-4a73-80ee-20f1cd2c2ab1", "https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017", "https://trnava-vuc.sk/sedem-kandidatov-na-zupana-42-poslaneckych-kresiel-a-214-uchadzacov/", "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/osk/2022/OSK2022_SK_tab06a.csv", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/onfHZZp/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-zupana-pre-trnavsky-kraj-vo-volbach-do-vuc-2026/", "https://www.trnavak.sk/komunalne-volby/zupan" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Jozef Viskupič", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, KDH, Demokrati, Hnutie Slovensko, Maďarské fórum, Občianska konzervatívna strana", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 52.6, "mean": 52.4, "lo80": 36.4, "hi80": 68.2, "p_win": 0.9638, "p_win_blind": 0.9466, "p_win_market": 0.9615, "fund_share": 60.3, "fund_p_win": 0.8537, "swing": 1.09, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.3856 }, { "name": "József Berényi", "party": "Magyar szövetség - Maďarská aliancia", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 18.5, "mean": 19.6, "lo80": 10.2, "hi80": 30.6, "p_win": 0.0219, "p_win_blind": 0.0467, "p_win_market": 0.0099, "fund_share": 5.1, "fund_p_win": 0.024, "swing": 0.451, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.2104 }, { "name": "Peter Hambálek", "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Slovenská národná strana, Republika", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 11.1, "mean": 12.2, "lo80": 5.8, "hi80": 19.9, "p_win": 0.0119, "p_win_blind": 0.0063, "p_win_market": 0.0218, "fund_share": 10.3, "fund_p_win": 0.0891, "swing": 1.078, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Matej Lančarič", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 7.6, "mean": 8.4, "lo80": 4.1, "hi80": 13.6, "p_win": 0.0015, "p_win_blind": 0.0004, "p_win_market": 0.0053, "fund_share": 4.4, "fund_p_win": 0.0183, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Róbert Dohál", "party": "Alternatíva pre Slovensko", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 3.6, "mean": 4.1, "lo80": 1.9, "hi80": 6.7, "p_win": 0.0004, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0014, "fund_share": 2.2, "fund_p_win": 0.0033, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Jaroslav Cehlárik", "party": "Právo na pravdu", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.8, "mean": 2.0, "lo80": 0.9, "hi80": 3.4, "p_win": 0.0004, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0013, "fund_share": 2.8, "fund_p_win": 0.0072, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Štefan Pollák", "party": "Spoločne občania Slovenska", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.3, "mean": 1.4, "lo80": 0.7, "hi80": 2.4, "p_win": 0.0003, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0006, "fund_share": 2.2, "fund_p_win": 0.0044, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "kraj-tn", "name": "Trenčiansky samosprávny kraj", "office": "predseda VUC", "group": "kraj", "voters": 478826, "incumbent": { "name": "Jaroslav Baška", "since": 2013, "party_2022": "SMER - SD, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, SME RODINA, SNS", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 44.8, "registered_voters": 478826, "participating_voters": 214539, "valid_votes": 195837, "results": [ { "name": "Jaroslav Baška", "party": "SMER - SD, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, SME RODINA, SNS", "votes": 131705, "pct": 67.25 }, { "name": "Peter Máťoš", "party": "KDH, SaS, OKS, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení, Progresívne Slovensko, SPOLU, ODS, ŠANCA", "votes": 32547, "pct": 16.61 }, { "name": "Adrián Mikuš", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 16317, "pct": 8.33 }, { "name": "Miroslav Magdech", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 5801, "pct": 2.96 }, { "name": "Anton Kysel", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 5553, "pct": 2.83 }, { "name": "Marian Kňažko", "party": "Slovenská ľudová strana (SĽS)", "votes": 3914, "pct": 1.99 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/osk/2022/OSK2022_SK_tab06a.csv", "source_turnout": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/sk/suhrnne_vysledky.html" }, "2017": { "turnout_pct": 26.31, "registered_voters": 493851, "participating_voters": 129940, "valid_votes": 125652, "results": [ { "name": "Jaroslav Baška", "party": "SMER-SD, SNS, MOST - HÍD, SZ", "votes": 62807, "pct": 49.98 }, { "name": "Renáta Kaščáková", "party": "SaS, OĽaNO, KDH, OKS, NOVA, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 31580, "pct": 25.13 }, { "name": "Štefan Škultéty", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 17403, "pct": 13.85 }, { "name": "Petra Hajšelová", "party": "SME RODINA - Boris Kollár", "votes": 6032, "pct": 4.8 }, { "name": "Ferdinand Vavrík", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4079, "pct": 3.24 }, { "name": "Nora Pániková", "party": "SZS", "votes": 2477, "pct": 1.97 }, { "name": "Igor Valko", "party": "NP", "votes": 1274, "pct": 1.01 } ], "source": "https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017", "source_note": "Figures from SK Wikipedia (cites ŠÚ SR); ŠÚ SR 2017 page https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/sk/data01.html is JS-rendered and was not machine-readable." } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "AKO", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-16", "n": null, "sponsor": "JOJ 24", "results": { "Jaroslav Baška": 57.5, "Natália Svítková": 38.6, "Lubomír Choleva": 2.8, "Daniel Galas": 1.1 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://joj24.noviny.sk/prieskumy/1268562-kto-bude-zupanom-trencianskeho-kraja-takmer-stvrtina-opytanych-este-nevie-komu-da-hlas", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "Politologické prieskumy", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-11", "n": 898, "sponsor": null, "results": { "Jaroslav Baška": 49.2, "Natália Svítková": 37.6, "Lubomír Choleva": 0.4, "Daniel Galas": 0.2 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dee50RzCO71/", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Jaroslav Baška": 1.08, "Natália Svítková": 5.8, "Daniel Galas": 60.0, "Lubomír Choleva": 70.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Jaroslav Baška": 1.05, "Natália Svítková": 8.0, "Daniel Galas": 50.0, "Lubomír Choleva": 70.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Jaroslav Baška": 1.07, "Natália Svítková": 5.5 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.785, "poll_sd": 0.073, "n_polls": 2 }, "notes": "Only head-to-head race among the four: unified government coalition (Smer, Hlas, Republika, SNS) behind 13-year incumbent Baška vs unified opposition (PS, SaS, KDH, Demokrati, Hnutie Slovensko, OKS) behind Svítková. Two polls agree Baška ~56-58 % of decided, Svítková ~39-43 %; minor candidates <3 % combined. 2022: Baška 67.3 % vs opposition 16.6 % - Svítková polls far above the 2022 opposition baseline, so swing is large but Baška still favoured (Tipsport 1.08). Curiosity: 2022 opposition candidate Peter Máťoš now runs for TSK council on the Hlas/Smer/SNS/Republika list, while 2022 Republika candidate Magdech runs on KDH/PS/SaS list (hnonline council list). No withdrawals known as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://cuet.slovensko.sk/sk/dokument/96c05892-6ec3-40b3-9224-9a639a1f013f", "https://hnonline.sk/volby-2026/volby-do-vuc-2026/96307638-vuc-volby-2026-trencin-zoznam-kandidatov-zupan-a-poslanci", "https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017", "https://trencin.sk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Zoznam-zaregistrovanych-kandidatov-pre-volby-predsedu-TSK.pdf", "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/osk/2022/OSK2022_SK_tab06a.csv", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/pGWwtjf/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-predsedov-samospravnych-krajov-vo-volbach-do-vuc-2026/" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Jaroslav Baška", "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Republika, Slovenská národná strana", "inc": true, "bloc": "gov", "share": 61.8, "mean": 60.7, "lo80": 41.5, "hi80": 78.5, "p_win": 0.8711, "p_win_blind": 0.8033, "p_win_market": 0.9151, "fund_share": 78.2, "fund_p_win": 0.8975, "swing": 1.078, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.6725 }, { "name": "Natália Svítková", "party": "Demokrati, Hnutie Slovensko, KDH, Občianska konzervatívna strana, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 35.0, "mean": 36.2, "lo80": 19.0, "hi80": 55.3, "p_win": 0.1277, "p_win_blind": 0.1967, "p_win_market": 0.0801, "fund_share": 13.6, "fund_p_win": 0.0977, "swing": 1.09, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Lubomír Choleva", "party": "Vlastenecký blok", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.7, "mean": 1.9, "lo80": 0.8, "hi80": 3.3, "p_win": 0.0006, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.003, "fund_share": 2.1, "fund_p_win": 0.0024, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Daniel Galas", "party": "Slovexit", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 1.0, "mean": 1.1, "lo80": 0.5, "hi80": 1.9, "p_win": 0.0007, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0042, "fund_share": 2.1, "fund_p_win": 0.0024, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "kraj-nr", "name": "Nitriansky samosprávny kraj", "office": "predseda VUC", "group": "kraj", "voters": 566504, "incumbent": { "name": "Branislav Becík", "since": 2022, "party_2022": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia, SME RODINA", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 43.1, "registered_voters": 566504, "participating_voters": 244201, "valid_votes": 213714, "results": [ { "name": "Branislav Becík", "party": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia, SME RODINA", "votes": 58765, "pct": 27.49 }, { "name": "Milan Belica", "party": "NEKA (supported by SMER-SD, SNS)", "votes": 46710, "pct": 21.85 }, { "name": "Tibor Csenger", "party": "SZÖVETSÉG - ALIANCIA", "votes": 35604, "pct": 16.65 }, { "name": "Martina Holečková", "party": "KDH, SaS, Tím Kraj Nitra, ŠANCA, SPOLU, ODS, DS, OKS, ZA ĽUDÍ", "votes": 33467, "pct": 15.65 }, { "name": "Lukáš Kyselica", "party": "OĽANO-NOVA-KÚ-ZMENA ZDOLA", "votes": 10897, "pct": 5.09 }, { "name": "Martin Kusenda", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 9130, "pct": 4.27 }, { "name": "Renáta Kolenčíková", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 5741, "pct": 2.68 }, { "name": "Peter Pukan", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 4968, "pct": 2.32 }, { "name": "Milan Španír", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 4061, "pct": 1.9 }, { "name": "Artúr Bekmatov", "party": "Socialisti.sk", "votes": 3424, "pct": 1.6 }, { "name": "Oliver Štaudner", "party": "Slovenská ľudová strana (SĽS)", "votes": 947, "pct": 0.44 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/osk/2022/OSK2022_SK_tab06a.csv", "source_turnout": "https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2022/sk/suhrnne_vysledky.html" }, "2017": { "turnout_pct": 26.84, "registered_voters": 582228, "participating_voters": 156268, "valid_votes": 152993, "results": [ { "name": "Milan Belica", "party": "SMER-SD, SNS, MOST - HÍD", "votes": 52184, "pct": 34.1 }, { "name": "Ján Greššo", "party": "SaS, OĽaNO, KDH, ŠANCA, OKS, NOVA, Demokrati Slovenska", "votes": 26382, "pct": 17.24 }, { "name": "Milan Uhrík", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 23502, "pct": 15.36 }, { "name": "Peter Oremus", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 22827, "pct": 14.92 }, { "name": "Iván Farkas", "party": "SMK-MKP", "votes": 21084, "pct": 13.78 }, { "name": "Renáta Kolenčíková", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3456, "pct": 2.25 }, { "name": "László Hajdu", "party": "MKDA-MKDSZ", "votes": 2571, "pct": 1.68 }, { "name": "Ján Marko", "party": "NP", "votes": 987, "pct": 0.64 } ], "source": "https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017", "source_note": "Figures from SK Wikipedia (cites ŠÚ SR); ŠÚ SR 2017 page https://volby.statistics.sk/osk/osk2017/sk/data01.html is JS-rendered and was not machine-readable." } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "AKO", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-18", "n": null, "sponsor": "JOJ 24", "results": { "Branislav Becík": 45.5, "Henrich Varga": 25.5, "Jolana Čuláková": 10.2, "Tibor Csenger": 10.1, "Róbert Švec": 5.5, "Erik Blaško": 3.2, "Karol Suchan": 0.0 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://joj24.noviny.sk/prieskumy/1269439-najmladsi-by-volili-inak-volebny-model-v-nitrianskom-kraji-priniesol-zaujimave-rozdiely", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "Politologické prieskumy", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-14", "n": 762, "sponsor": null, "results": { "Branislav Becík": 42.0, "Henrich Varga": 34.8, "Tibor Csenger": 8.0, "Róbert Švec": 2.7 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DeY7rOgCpJt/", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Branislav Becík": 1.1, "Henrich Varga": 6.5, "Tibor Csenger": 25.0, "Karol Suchan": 40.0, "Erik Blaško": 50.0, "Róbert Švec": 50.0, "Jolana Čuláková": 60.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Branislav Becík": 1.12, "Henrich Varga": 6.0, "Tibor Csenger": 30.0, "Karol Suchan": 40.0, "Erik Blaško": 50.0, "Róbert Švec": 50.0, "Jolana Čuláková": 50.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Branislav Becík": 1.19, "Henrich Varga": 3.8, "Tibor Csenger": 19.0, "Karol Suchan": 30.0, "Erik Blaško": 40.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-predsedu-vuc-2026-kraj-po-kraji/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.786, "poll_sd": 0.073, "n_polls": 2 }, "notes": "Most competitive of the four in polls but bookmakers drifted toward Becík (Tipsport Varga 3.2 on 2026-10-08 -> 6.5 on 2026-10-20). Becík now has the full government coalition plus Právo na pravdu and Bratia Slovenska (in 2022 he won with 27.5 % against Smer-backed Belica 21.9 %; Smer+Hlas combined 2022 ~49 %). Varga = unified opposition incl. Tím kraj Nitra (2022 Holečková 15.7 % + Kyselica 5.1 %). Csenger (MA) holds the Hungarian south (16.7 % in 2022) - polls give him only 8-10 %, possibly underestimating ethnic-Hungarian turnout (AKO and online samples). Polls diverge strongly on Varga (25.5 % AKO vs 38.9 % Politologické prieskumy, decided) and Čuláková (10.2 % AKO; not offered in the other). Radava land-swap allegation surfaced 5 days before the vote. Single round, plurality wins. No withdrawals known as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://cuet.slovensko.sk/sk/priloha/uloz/47e14565-8007-4760-87f3-b844064ebbf8", "https://hnonline.sk/volby-2026/volby-do-vuc-2026/96307533-vuc-volby-2026-nitriansky-kraj-zoznam-kandidatov-zupan-a-poslanci", "https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_samospr%C3%A1vnych_krajov_na_Slovensku_v_roku_2017", "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/osk/2022/OSK2022_SK_tab06a.csv", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/pGWwtjf/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-predsedov-samospravnych-krajov-vo-volbach-do-vuc-2026/", "https://www.nitrak.sk/komunalne-volby/zupan" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Branislav Becík", "party": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Smer - sociálna demokracia, Slovenská národná strana, Republika, Právo na pravdu, Bratia Slovenska", "inc": true, "bloc": "gov", "share": 45.9, "mean": 46.0, "lo80": 29.4, "hi80": 62.8, "p_win": 0.8285, "p_win_blind": 0.7816, "p_win_market": 0.8457, "fund_share": 53.2, "fund_p_win": 0.769, "swing": 1.078, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.2749 }, { "name": "Henrich Varga", "party": "Tím kraj Nitra - združenie kandidátov Nitrianskeho kraja, Sloboda a solidarita, Progresívne Slovensko, KDH, Hnutie Slovensko, Demokrati, Maďarské fórum, Občianska konzervatívna strana", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 27.0, "mean": 28.2, "lo80": 15.1, "hi80": 43.4, "p_win": 0.1627, "p_win_blind": 0.2165, "p_win_market": 0.1165, "fund_share": 15.2, "fund_p_win": 0.1646, "swing": 1.09, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Tibor Csenger", "party": "Magyar szövetség - Maďarská aliancia", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 8.3, "mean": 9.1, "lo80": 4.5, "hi80": 14.9, "p_win": 0.004, "p_win_blind": 0.001, "p_win_market": 0.0152, "fund_share": 6.5, "fund_p_win": 0.0396, "swing": 0.451, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.1665 }, { "name": "Jolana Čuláková", "party": "NEKA (nezávislá kandidátka)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 8.0, "mean": 8.8, "lo80": 4.3, "hi80": 14.3, "p_win": 0.0023, "p_win_blind": 0.0009, "p_win_market": 0.0053, "fund_share": 3.7, "fund_p_win": 0.0134, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Róbert Švec", "party": "Slovenské hnutie obrody", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 3.6, "mean": 4.0, "lo80": 1.9, "hi80": 6.5, "p_win": 0.0008, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0059, "fund_share": 2.4, "fund_p_win": 0.0047, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Erik Blaško", "party": "Jednota Slovanov", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 2.8, "mean": 3.1, "lo80": 1.5, "hi80": 5.3, "p_win": 0.0008, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0063, "fund_share": 2.4, "fund_p_win": 0.0043, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Karol Suchan", "party": "Slovexit", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 0.6, "mean": 0.7, "lo80": 0.3, "hi80": 1.1, "p_win": 0.001, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0088, "fund_share": 2.3, "fund_p_win": 0.0045, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-stare-mesto", "name": "Staré Mesto", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 41432, "incumbent": { "name": "Matej Vagač", "since": 2022, "party_2022": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 38.07, "registered_voters": 41432, "valid_votes": 15173, "results": [ { "name": "Matej Vagač", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko", "votes": 7633, "pct": 50.3 }, { "name": "Zuzana Aufrichtová", "party": "SaS, KDH, OKS, NOVA, ZA ĽUDÍ, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 3374, "pct": 22.23 }, { "name": "Radoslav Števčík", "party": "STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI", "votes": 2461, "pct": 16.21 }, { "name": "Martin Gajdoš", "party": "SPOLU, DS, ODS, ŠANCA", "votes": 699, "pct": 4.6 }, { "name": "Zuzana Luhová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 238, "pct": 1.56 }, { "name": "Romana Tabák", "party": "SME RODINA", "votes": 216, "pct": 1.42 }, { "name": "Andrej Trnovec", "party": "Slovenská ľudová strana (SĽS)", "votes": 206, "pct": 1.35 }, { "name": "Michal Čambal", "party": "ŽIVOT", "votes": 149, "pct": 0.98 }, { "name": "Jozef Bača", "party": "DOMOV-NS", "votes": 121, "pct": 0.79 }, { "name": "Milena Minichová", "party": "STRANA MODERNÉHO SLOVENSKA (SMS)", "votes": 76, "pct": 0.5 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 43.35, "registered_voters": 39923, "valid_votes": 16680, "results": [ { "name": "Zuzana Aufrichtová", "party": "SaS, OĽANO, KDH, SME RODINA, OKS, NOVA, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 6104, "pct": 36.59 }, { "name": "Radoslav Števčík", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4022, "pct": 24.11 }, { "name": "Martin Borguľa", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3300, "pct": 19.78 }, { "name": "Barbora Oráčová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1409, "pct": 8.44 }, { "name": "Dana Kleinert", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, SPOLU (withdrew; marked X by ŠÚ)", "votes": 969, "pct": 5.8 }, { "name": "Štefan Wimmer", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 503, "pct": 3.01 }, { "name": "Sven Šovčík", "party": "STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI (withdrew; marked X by ŠÚ)", "votes": 207, "pct": 1.24 }, { "name": "Vladimír Hudec", "party": "NÁRODNÁ KOALÍCIA", "votes": 92, "pct": 0.55 }, { "name": "Michal Šulek", "party": "STRANA MODERNÉHO SLOVENSKA (SMS)", "votes": 74, "pct": 0.44 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)" } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "This is a 2022 rematch between Vagač and Aufrichtová. In 2022 Vagač won with 50.3 % against a split field (Aufrichtová 22.2 % plus Števčík, SaNK, 16.2 %, together 38.4 %). In 2026 the anti-Vallo vote is again split, now between Aufrichtová (Krajina/KDH/KÚ/Nova, plus Dunaj) and Hitková (SaNK, the party that ran Števčík in 2022). Vetrík is the only government-party (Smer/Hlas/SNS) candidate in a very liberal district, so expect a low single-digit share (his 2022 primátor run got 0.8 % citywide). SaS backed Aufrichtová in 2022 but now nominates Vagač. Turnout trend: 43.4 % (2018), then 38.1 % (2022). No district-level polls or betting odds found. The withdrawal deadline is 22 Oct 07:00, and no withdrawals are known.", "sources": [ "https://data.moderneobce.sk/data/uploads/staremesto.sk/volby2026/KL_Starosta_2026.pdf", "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.staremesto.sk/31451/volby-do-organov-uzemnej-samospravy-2026", "https://www.teraz.sk/komunalne-volby-2026/v-bratislavskom-starom-meste-su-styria/989965-clanok.html" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Matej Vagač", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, Team Bratislava, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 52.6, "mean": 51.9, "lo80": 20.7, "hi80": 82.4, "p_win": 0.7093, "p_win_blind": 0.7093, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 52.7, "fund_p_win": 0.704, "swing": 0.05, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.503 }, { "name": "Zuzana Aufrichtová", "party": "Krajina, KDH, Konzervatívci - kresťanská únia, Nova", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 14.5, "mean": 19.4, "lo80": 3.6, "hi80": 42.9, "p_win": 0.1381, "p_win_blind": 0.1381, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 14.4, "fund_p_win": 0.1392, "swing": 0.02, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.2223 }, { "name": "Miroslav Vetrík", "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Slovenská národná strana, Život - národná strana", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 11.5, "mean": 16.1, "lo80": 2.7, "hi80": 36.3, "p_win": 0.0953, "p_win_blind": 0.0953, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 11.3, "fund_p_win": 0.0972, "swing": -0.08, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Petra Hitková", "party": "Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 8.6, "mean": 12.5, "lo80": 2.0, "hi80": 28.7, "p_win": 0.0574, "p_win_blind": 0.0574, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 8.6, "fund_p_win": 0.0596, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-ruzinov", "name": "Ružinov", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 70536, "incumbent": { "name": "Martin Chren", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "TÍM RUŽINOV", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 36.6, "registered_voters": 70536, "valid_votes": 24679, "results": [ { "name": "Martin Chren", "party": "TÍM RUŽINOV", "votes": 19283, "pct": 78.13 }, { "name": "Peter Strapák", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2698, "pct": 10.93 }, { "name": "Jana Jányová", "party": "SMER - SD, REPUBLIKA, DOMOV-NS", "votes": 1212, "pct": 4.91 }, { "name": "Ivor Švihran", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 921, "pct": 3.73 }, { "name": "Veronika Biksadská", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 565, "pct": 2.28 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 40.21, "registered_voters": 69150, "valid_votes": 27105, "results": [ { "name": "Martin Chren", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 9273, "pct": 34.21 }, { "name": "Ján Buocik", "party": "SaS, OĽANO, SME RODINA, OKS, NOVA", "votes": 6455, "pct": 23.81 }, { "name": "Jana Poláčiková", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, SPOLU", "votes": 4465, "pct": 16.47 }, { "name": "Dušan Pekár", "party": "KDH", "votes": 3916, "pct": 14.44 }, { "name": "Slavomír Drozd", "party": "SMER-SD, SNS, SZS", "votes": 1291, "pct": 4.76 }, { "name": "Igor Adamec", "party": "SKS", "votes": 1282, "pct": 4.72 }, { "name": "Kristína Laššáková", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 423, "pct": 1.56 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)" } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "Chren is the overwhelming favourite. He won 2022 with 78.1 %, and the 2026 field is the same minor challengers as 2022 minus the Smer candidate (Jányová, 4.9 %) and Biksadská. No government-party or štvorkoalícia candidate is running. Expect a result similar to or better than 2022. No polls or odds.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.ruzinovskeecho.sk/clanok/aktualne-volby-2026-predstavujeme-vam-kandidatov", "https://www.teraz.sk/regiony/v-bratislavskom-ruzinove-su-traja-kand/989901-clanok.html" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Martin Chren", "party": "Tím Ružinov", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 59.3, "mean": 57.1, "lo80": 23.9, "hi80": 86.8, "p_win": 0.7145, "p_win_blind": 0.7145, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 59.1, "fund_p_win": 0.7187, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.7813 }, { "name": "Peter Strapák", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 19.1, "mean": 24.4, "lo80": 4.6, "hi80": 53.2, "p_win": 0.1799, "p_win_blind": 0.1799, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 19.3, "fund_p_win": 0.174, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.1093 }, { "name": "Ivor Švihran", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 13.3, "mean": 18.5, "lo80": 3.2, "hi80": 42.0, "p_win": 0.1056, "p_win_blind": 0.1056, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 13.5, "fund_p_win": 0.1073, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0373 } ] }, { "id": "mc-vrakuna", "name": "Vrakuňa", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 17417, "incumbent": { "name": "Martin Kuruc", "since": 2014, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 30.61, "registered_voters": 17417, "valid_votes": 4621, "results": [ { "name": "Martin Kuruc", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4621, "pct": 100.0 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv (Kuruc was the sole candidate)" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 36.2, "registered_voters": 17544, "valid_votes": 6135, "results": [ { "name": "Martin Kuruc", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 5779, "pct": 94.19 }, { "name": "Marián Nagy", "party": "NÁRODNÁ KOALÍCIA", "votes": 356, "pct": 5.8 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)" } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "Kuruc is a very safe incumbent. He took 94 % in 2018 and was unopposed in 2022. This is the first time he carries a party label (štvorkoalícia), which could cost a little among anti-Vallo voters, but both challengers are minor. Vrakuňa had the lowest turnout in Bratislava in 2022 (30.6 %). Ballot numbers follow alphabetical order of surnames, which is how Slovak law orders candidates on the ballot (confirmed against official lists for Staré Mesto and Nové Mesto, and in 2022 ŠÚ SR data). Here the ballot numbers were not checked against the official Vrakuňa list. No polls or odds.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv (Kuruc was the sole candidate)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.teraz.sk/komunalne-volby-2026/volby26-na-post-starostu-bratislavskej/989310-clanok.html" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Martin Kuruc", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 78.0, "mean": 73.0, "lo80": 43.2, "hi80": 94.2, "p_win": 0.9041, "p_win_blind": 0.9041, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 78.0, "fund_p_win": 0.9058, "swing": 0.05, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 1.0 }, { "name": "Katarína Lukáčová", "party": "Demokratická strana – občianski demokrati Slovenska", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 9.6, "mean": 14.6, "lo80": 2.1, "hi80": 34.5, "p_win": 0.0559, "p_win_blind": 0.0559, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 9.7, "fund_p_win": 0.056, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Dušan Burdy", "party": "Právo na pravdu", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 8.0, "mean": 12.4, "lo80": 1.6, "hi80": 29.9, "p_win": 0.04, "p_win_blind": 0.04, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 7.9, "fund_p_win": 0.0382, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-podunajske-biskupice", "name": "Podunajské Biskupice", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 19586, "incumbent": { "name": "Roman Lamoš", "since": 2022, "party_2022": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 36.74, "registered_voters": 19586, "valid_votes": 6893, "results": [ { "name": "Roman Lamoš", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS", "votes": 3090, "pct": 44.82 }, { "name": "Zoltán Pék", "party": "SOM Slovensko, SZÖVETSÉG - ALIANCIA", "votes": 1502, "pct": 21.79 }, { "name": "Martina Frőhlich Činovská", "party": "STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení", "votes": 644, "pct": 9.34 }, { "name": "Boris Vereš", "party": "SME RODINA, KDH, ZA ĽUDÍ", "votes": 610, "pct": 8.84 }, { "name": "Pavol Kubiš", "party": "DS", "votes": 459, "pct": 6.65 }, { "name": "Zoran Kupkovič", "party": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia", "votes": 364, "pct": 5.28 }, { "name": "Andrej Bojczún", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 224, "pct": 3.24 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 37.75, "registered_voters": 20027, "valid_votes": 7333, "results": [ { "name": "Zoltán Pék", "party": "MOST - HÍD, SaS, SME RODINA, OKS, NOVA", "votes": 1527, "pct": 20.82 }, { "name": "Roman Lamoš", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, SPOLU", "votes": 1279, "pct": 17.44 }, { "name": "Milan Černý", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 973, "pct": 13.26 }, { "name": "Ján Duranský", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 943, "pct": 12.85 }, { "name": "Ján Kšiňan", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 876, "pct": 11.94 }, { "name": "Martin Halás", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 432, "pct": 5.89 }, { "name": "Kristián Kevický", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 401, "pct": 5.46 }, { "name": "Zoran Kupkovič", "party": "SMER-SD, SNS, SZS", "votes": 386, "pct": 5.26 }, { "name": "Ján Španko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 304, "pct": 4.14 }, { "name": "Andrej Bojczún", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 212, "pct": 2.89 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)" } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "This is the most competitive of the štvorkoalícia-held seats in this group. In 2022 Lamoš won with 44.8 % against a fragmented field. In 2026 the opposition is more consolidated: Frőhlich Činovská's coalition merges the 2022 Pék (Hungarian Aliancia, 21.8 %), SaNK (9.3 %) and KDH/Vereš (8.8 %) bases, together about 40 % in 2022 terms, although vote transfer is not automatic. Méry (Dunaj) splits the anti-Vallo vote. The 15 Oct stalking story may generate sympathy for Lamoš. Ballot numbers follow alphabetical order of surnames, which is how Slovak law orders candidates on the ballot (confirmed against official lists for Staré Mesto and Nové Mesto, and in 2022 ŠÚ SR data). Here the ballot numbers were not checked against the official PB list. No polls or odds.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.teraz.sk/komunalne-volby-2026/v-podunajskych-biskupiciach-su-traja-k/990642-clanok.html" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Roman Lamoš", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 56.7, "mean": 55.2, "lo80": 21.9, "hi80": 85.9, "p_win": 0.6824, "p_win_blind": 0.6824, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 61.1, "fund_p_win": 0.7431, "swing": 0.05, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.4482 }, { "name": "Martina Frőhlich Činovská", "party": "Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti, KDH, Nova, Magyar Szövetség - Maďarská aliancia", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 23.8, "mean": 28.6, "lo80": 5.9, "hi80": 59.6, "p_win": 0.2352, "p_win_blind": 0.2352, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 18.7, "fund_p_win": 0.1653, "swing": 0.059, "adj": 0.3, "adj_reason": "Spojená kandidatúra SaNK, KDH, Nova a Maďarskej aliancie s podporou exstarostu Péka na jej kandidátke. Tieto prúdy mali v roku 2022 spolu okolo 40 %.", "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0934 }, { "name": "Ladislav Méry", "party": "Dunaj", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 11.4, "mean": 16.3, "lo80": 2.7, "hi80": 37.2, "p_win": 0.0824, "p_win_blind": 0.0824, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 12.5, "fund_p_win": 0.0915, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-nove-mesto", "name": "Nové Mesto", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 38438, "incumbent": { "name": "Matúš Čupka", "since": 2022, "party_2022": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 39.0, "registered_voters": 38438, "valid_votes": 14139, "results": [ { "name": "Matúš Čupka", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS", "votes": 7832, "pct": 55.39 }, { "name": "Zuzana Rattajová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2803, "pct": 19.82 }, { "name": "Branislav Filipovič", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2684, "pct": 18.98 }, { "name": "Andrej Árva", "party": "STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI", "votes": 624, "pct": 4.41 }, { "name": "Radúz Dula", "party": "DS, ODS, ŠANCA, SPOLU (withdrew; marked X by ŠÚ)", "votes": 111, "pct": 0.78 }, { "name": "Simona Timková", "party": "Demokrati Slovenska (withdrew; marked X by ŠÚ)", "votes": 85, "pct": 0.6 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 42.97, "registered_voters": 36906, "valid_votes": 15404, "results": [ { "name": "Rudolf Kusý", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 9011, "pct": 58.49 }, { "name": "Matúš Čupka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 5783, "pct": 37.54 }, { "name": "Miroslav Kolesár", "party": "STRANA MODERNÉHO SLOVENSKA (SMS)", "votes": 610, "pct": 3.96 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)" } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "This is effectively a Čupka vs Kusý rematch of 2018, when Kusý won 58.5 % to 37.5 %. Čupka won the open seat in 2022 with 55.4 %. In 2022 Kusý polled 27.7 % citywide for primátor, and Bratislavský Večerník (Oct 2025) reported he faces a 150,000 EUR bribery charge and lost the backing of the Dunaj party. Čajda's withdrawal leaves 3 effective candidates. Under Slovak rules votes for Čajda are invalid but the ballot is unchanged. Note that ŠÚ SR in 2022 still listed withdrawn candidates' votes with an 'X' and computed shares over all valid ballots. No polls or odds. The Kusý bribery-charge status (indicted? trial?) was not verified beyond the Večerník report.", "sources": [ "https://banm.sk/novinka/139682/zoznam-zaregistrovanych-kandidatov-pre-volby-do-organov-samospravy-obci-a-do-organov-samospravnych-krajov", "https://data.moderneobce.sk/data/uploads/banm.sk/Zoznam_registrovan%C3%BDch_kandid%C3%A1tov_pre_vo%C4%BEby_do_org%C3%A1nov_obc%C3%AD_na_starostu_mestskej_%C4%8Dasti_Bratislava-Nov%C3%A9_Mesto.pdf", "https://mene.sk/clanky/2026/10/cajda-odstupil-nove-mesto/", "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/" ], "withdrawn": [ { "name": "Tomáš Čajda", "transfer_to": null } ], "candidates": [ { "name": "Matúš Čupka", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 57.5, "mean": 55.5, "lo80": 21.7, "hi80": 86.3, "p_win": 0.6728, "p_win_blind": 0.6728, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 63.4, "fund_p_win": 0.7583, "swing": 0.05, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.5539 }, { "name": "Rudolf Kusy", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 26.9, "mean": 31.7, "lo80": 6.8, "hi80": 64.5, "p_win": 0.2776, "p_win_blind": 0.2776, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 20.2, "fund_p_win": 0.181, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.4, "adj_reason": "Bývalý starosta (2014–2022). V roku 2018 porazil Čupku 58,5 % : 37,5 %. Model vidí len posledné voľby, kde nekandidoval. Úprava je nižšia ako +0,6 kvôli obvineniu z úplatku (2025).", "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Mária Martaus", "party": "Pirátska strana - Slovensko", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 8.5, "mean": 12.9, "lo80": 1.9, "hi80": 30.1, "p_win": 0.0495, "p_win_blind": 0.0495, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 9.7, "fund_p_win": 0.0606, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-raca", "name": "Rača", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 21896, "incumbent": { "name": "Michal Drotován", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 38.63, "registered_voters": 21896, "valid_votes": 8172, "results": [ { "name": "Michal Drotován", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 5603, "pct": 68.56 }, { "name": "Ján Polakovič", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2113, "pct": 25.85 }, { "name": "Rudolf Ivičič", "party": "SRDCE - SNJ - sv", "votes": 231, "pct": 2.82 }, { "name": "Teodor Žitný", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 225, "pct": 2.75 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 45.46, "registered_voters": 20109, "valid_votes": 8949, "results": [ { "name": "Michal Drotován", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3889, "pct": 43.45 }, { "name": "Peter Pilinský", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3460, "pct": 38.66 }, { "name": "Monika Luknárová", "party": "SaS, OĽANO, SME RODINA, KDH, OKS, NOVA, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 1600, "pct": 17.87 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)" } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "This is a straight 2022 rematch (68.6 % vs 25.9 %), now head-to-head with no minor candidates. Drotován is a strong favourite. Polakovič's ceiling is roughly 30–35 % unless something changes. No known štvorkoalícia candidate (SME's May table listed both under 'Nezávislí'). Ballot order is confirmed by the topky.sk numbered table and the official raca.sk list. No polls or odds.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.raca.sk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Zoznam-zaregistrovanych-kandidatov-na-starostu-1.pdf", "https://www.teraz.sk/komunalne-volby-2026/v-bratislavskej-raci-su-dvaja-kandida/989276-clanok.html" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Michal Drotován", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 80.2, "mean": 74.3, "lo80": 42.3, "hi80": 95.8, "p_win": 0.8534, "p_win_blind": 0.8534, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 80.2, "fund_p_win": 0.8566, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.6856 }, { "name": "Ján Polakovič", "party": "Spoločný cieľ", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 19.8, "mean": 25.7, "lo80": 4.2, "hi80": 57.7, "p_win": 0.1467, "p_win_blind": 0.1467, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 19.8, "fund_p_win": 0.1434, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.2585 } ] }, { "id": "mc-vajnory", "name": "Vajnory", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 4881, "incumbent": { "name": "Michal Vlček", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 47.81, "registered_voters": 4881, "valid_votes": 2219, "results": [ { "name": "Michal Vlček", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1356, "pct": 61.1 }, { "name": "Monika Debnárová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 453, "pct": 20.41 }, { "name": "Juraj Ondruška", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 410, "pct": 18.47 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 55.63, "registered_voters": 4842, "valid_votes": 2607, "results": [ { "name": "Michal Vlček", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1327, "pct": 50.9 }, { "name": "Juraj Ondruška", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1145, "pct": 43.92 }, { "name": "Marian Pružina", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 135, "pct": 5.17 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)" } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "This is a small electorate (about 4,900 voters) with high turnout (55.6 % in 2018, 47.8 % in 2022). Vlček is a two-term incumbent who grew from 50.9 % to 61.1 %. Ondruška ran close in 2018 (43.9 %) but fell to 18.5 % in 2022. Zeman is new. The challengers split the anti-incumbent vote, which favours Vlček. Ballot numbers follow alphabetical order of surnames, which is how Slovak law orders candidates on the ballot (confirmed against official lists for Staré Mesto and Nové Mesto, and in 2022 ŠÚ SR data). Here the ballot numbers were not checked against the official Vajnory list. No polls or odds.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.teraz.sk/komunalne-volby-2026/v-bratislavskych-vajnoroch-su-traja-st/991089-clanok.html" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Michal Vlček", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 49.1, "mean": 49.2, "lo80": 17.3, "hi80": 81.6, "p_win": 0.5965, "p_win_blind": 0.5965, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 49.1, "fund_p_win": 0.602, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.611 }, { "name": "Juraj Ondruška", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 24.9, "mean": 29.4, "lo80": 6.4, "hi80": 60.4, "p_win": 0.2579, "p_win_blind": 0.2579, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 24.8, "fund_p_win": 0.2542, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.1847 }, { "name": "Juraj Zeman", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 16.3, "mean": 21.4, "lo80": 4.0, "hi80": 46.9, "p_win": 0.1457, "p_win_blind": 0.1457, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 16.4, "fund_p_win": 0.1437, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-karlova-ves", "name": "Karlova Ves", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 30563, "incumbent": { "name": "Dana Čahojová", "since": 2014, "party_2022": "STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI", "running_2026": false }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 38.27, "registered_voters": 30563, "valid_votes": 11040, "results": [ { "name": "Dana Čahojová", "party": "STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI", "votes": 9434, "pct": 85.45 }, { "name": "Branislav Rusnák", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 822, "pct": 7.44 }, { "name": "Ján Krošlák", "party": "SME RODINA, ZA ĽUDÍ, SZÖVETSÉG - ALIANCIA", "votes": 427, "pct": 3.86 }, { "name": "Ľubica Cintulová", "party": "Hnutie ONÁS", "votes": 357, "pct": 3.23 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 41.79, "registered_voters": 31428, "valid_votes": 12432, "results": [ { "name": "Dana Čahojová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 8579, "pct": 69.0 }, { "name": "Anton Šmotlák", "party": "SaS, KDH, SME RODINA, OKS", "votes": 3504, "pct": 28.18 }, { "name": "Miroslav Kadnár", "party": "NEKA (withdrew; marked X by ŠÚ)", "votes": 349, "pct": 2.8 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)" } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "This is an open seat and a head-to-head proxy of Vallo vs anti-Vallo. Čahojová dominated (69.0 % in 2018, 85.5 % in 2022) and transfers her machine to Záhradník. Vallo's štvorkoalícia holds the district council majority and did not field a mayoral candidate in 2022. Long-running conflict: Čahojová vs the TB council club led by Vician, including a 2025 budget provisional regime and the Jurigovo námestie dispute. Expect a genuinely competitive two-way race. Čahojová's personal vote suggests an edge for Záhradník, while Bratislava-wide štvorkoalícia strength helps Vician. No polls found; an unscientific Facebook 'online poll' was ignored. No odds.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.csv ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/opendata/oso/2022/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.csv", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/OSO_2018_xlsx.zip (OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx results; OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx turnout)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.aktuality.sk/udalost/komunalne-volby-2026/bratislavsky-kraj/bratislava-karlova-ves-529397/", "https://www.teraz.sk/komunalne-volby-2026/v-bratislavskej-karlovej-vsi-kandiduju/990638-clanok.html" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Martin Vician", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 52.3, "mean": 51.9, "lo80": 16.6, "hi80": 86.1, "p_win": 0.5264, "p_win_blind": 0.5264, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 59.7, "fund_p_win": 0.6201, "swing": 0.05, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Branislav Záhradník", "party": "Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 47.7, "mean": 48.1, "lo80": 13.9, "hi80": 83.4, "p_win": 0.4736, "p_win_blind": 0.4736, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 40.3, "fund_p_win": 0.3799, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.3, "adj_reason": "Vicestarosta, ktorého verejne podporuje odchádzajúca starostka Čahojová (2022: 85,5 %).", "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-dubravka", "name": "Dúbravka", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 30999, "incumbent": { "name": "Martin Zaťovič", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "SOM Slovensko", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 35.91, "registered_voters": 30999, "valid_votes": 10577, "results": [ { "name": "Martin Zaťovič", "party": "SOM Slovensko", "votes": 8572, "pct": 81.04 }, { "name": "Marek Dinuš", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2005, "pct": 18.95 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529389.json, graph01/529389.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 39.93, "registered_voters": 31247, "valid_votes": 12124, "results": [ { "name": "Martin Zaťovič", "party": "SaS, OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti (OĽANO), KDH, SME RODINA - Boris Kollár, OKS, NOVA, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 11007, "pct": 90.78 }, { "name": "Iveta Petrušková", "party": "SMER-SD, SNS", "votes": 1117, "pct": 9.21 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529389.json, graph01/529389.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "UNCONTESTED: only the incumbent is on the ballot, so he wins with 100 % of valid votes (any valid vote elects him). Model note: winner certain; turnout reference 2022 35.91 %, 2018 39.93 % (ŠÚ SR). Zaťovič's 'since' = 2018 is the earliest year verified in ŠÚ SR data used here (earlier terms not checked). POLLS/ODDS: no public scientific poll and no bookmaker odds found for this district as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529389.json, graph01/529389.json)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529389.json, graph01/529389.json)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.dubravka.sk/files/documents/samosprava/volby/2026%20samospravy/zoznam-zaregistrovaneho-kandidata-na-starostu-2026.pdf", "https://www.dubravka.sk/sk/Samosprava/Samosprava1/Volby/volby-do-organov-samospravy-obci-a-samospravnych-krajov-2026.html" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Martin Zaťovič", "party": "Som Slovensko - strana obcí a miest", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 100.0, "mean": 100.0, "lo80": 100.0, "hi80": 100.0, "p_win": 1.0, "p_win_blind": 1.0, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 100.0, "fund_p_win": 1.0, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.8104 } ] }, { "id": "mc-lamac", "name": "Lamač", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 6529, "incumbent": { "name": "Igor Polakovič", "since": 2022, "party_2022": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 48.13, "registered_voters": 6529, "valid_votes": 2951, "results": [ { "name": "Igor Polakovič", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS", "votes": 1161, "pct": 39.34 }, { "name": "Lukáš Baňacký", "party": "SOM Slovensko", "votes": 886, "pct": 30.02 }, { "name": "Radoslav Olekšák", "party": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia, SMER - SD, SNS", "votes": 523, "pct": 17.72 }, { "name": "Mária Šimončičová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 381, "pct": 12.91 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529419.json, graph01/529419.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 52.82, "registered_voters": 6346, "valid_votes": 3221, "results": [ { "name": "Lukáš Baňacký", "party": "SaS, OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti (OĽANO), KDH, SME RODINA - Boris Kollár, OKS, NOVA, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 1498, "pct": 46.5 }, { "name": "Radoslav Olekšák", "party": "NF", "votes": 925, "pct": 28.71 }, { "name": "Katarína Boskovičová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 514, "pct": 15.95 }, { "name": "Richard Sporina", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 153, "pct": 4.75 }, { "name": "Marian Bukoven", "party": "SNJ-sv", "votes": 131, "pct": 4.06 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529419.json, graph01/529419.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "Head-to-head. 2022 was fragmented: Polakovič 39.34 %, Baňacký (SOM Slovensko, then-incumbent) 30.02 %, Olekšák (Hlas/Smer/SNS) 17.72 %, Šimončičová 12.91 %. In 2026 neither Som Slovensko nor Smer/Hlas field a candidate, so ~48 % of the 2022 vote (Baňacký+Olekšák) is up for grabs; Šimončičová is the only alternative for non-PS voters. Lamač turnout is high (48.13 % in 2022). POLLS/ODDS: no public scientific poll and no bookmaker odds found for this district as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529419.json, graph01/529419.json)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529419.json, graph01/529419.json)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.lamac.sk/files/documents/zverejnovanie/volby/komunalne/2026/starosta_zoznam-reg.-kandidatov.pdf", "https://www.lamac.sk/samosprava/zverejnovanie/uradna-tabula/zoznam-zaregistrovanych-kandidatov-pre-volby-24-oktobra-2026" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Igor Polakovič", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 66.6, "mean": 62.7, "lo80": 26.5, "hi80": 91.8, "p_win": 0.6953, "p_win_blind": 0.6953, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 66.6, "fund_p_win": 0.7003, "swing": 0.05, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.3934 }, { "name": "Mária Šimončičová", "party": "NEKA (nezávislá kandidátka)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 33.4, "mean": 37.3, "lo80": 8.2, "hi80": 73.5, "p_win": 0.3047, "p_win_blind": 0.3047, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 33.4, "fund_p_win": 0.2997, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.1291 } ] }, { "id": "mc-devin", "name": "Devín", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 1541, "incumbent": { "name": "Jana Jakubkovič", "since": 2022, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": false }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 55.35, "registered_voters": 1541, "valid_votes": 837, "results": [ { "name": "Jana Jakubkovič", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 364, "pct": 43.48 }, { "name": "Igor Prieložný", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS", "votes": 252, "pct": 30.1 }, { "name": "Štefan Lőrinc", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 132, "pct": 15.77 }, { "name": "Anton Martvoň", "party": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia", "votes": 54, "pct": 6.45 }, { "name": "Rastislav Kunst", "party": "SME RODINA, ZA ĽUDÍ, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení, SZÖVETSÉG - ALIANCIA", "votes": 35, "pct": 4.18 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529401.json, graph01/529401.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 57.56, "registered_voters": 1447, "valid_votes": 798, "results": [ { "name": "Ľubica Kolková", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 489, "pct": 61.27 }, { "name": "Andrea Denková", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 309, "pct": 38.72 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529401.json, graph01/529401.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "OPEN SEAT. Very small electorate (1,541 registered in 2022) with high turnout (55.35 % 2022). 2022: Jakubkovič (NEKA) 43.48 %, Prieložný 30.10 %, Lőrinc (NEKA) 15.77 %, Martvoň (Hlas) 6.45 %, Kunst 4.18 %. Prieložný is the only candidate with a prior-run base; Galát carries continuity of the outgoing administration as deputy mayor (no source found that Jakubkovič formally endorsed him). Independents historically win Devín (2018 two independents only). POLLS/ODDS: no public scientific poll and no bookmaker odds found for this district as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529401.json, graph01/529401.json)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529401.json, graph01/529401.json)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.devin.sk/data/page/devin.sk/31498/zoznam-kandidatov-pre-volby-starostu-mestskej-casti-bratislava-devin.pdf", "https://www.tasr.sk/tasr-clanok/TASR:2026090700000212" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Igor Prieložný", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 32.5, "mean": 36.1, "lo80": 9.5, "hi80": 68.7, "p_win": 0.3794, "p_win_blind": 0.3794, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 32.8, "fund_p_win": 0.3876, "swing": 0.05, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.301 }, { "name": "Martin Galát", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 31.1, "mean": 34.9, "lo80": 8.9, "hi80": 67.4, "p_win": 0.3614, "p_win_blind": 0.3614, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 31.0, "fund_p_win": 0.3554, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Pavol Maruščák", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 24.3, "mean": 29.0, "lo80": 6.5, "hi80": 59.7, "p_win": 0.2591, "p_win_blind": 0.2591, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 24.4, "fund_p_win": 0.257, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-devinska-nova-ves", "name": "Devínska Nová Ves", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 14281, "incumbent": { "name": "Dárius Krajčír", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "SOM Slovensko", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 39.5, "registered_voters": 14281, "valid_votes": 5363, "results": [ { "name": "Dárius Krajčír", "party": "SOM Slovensko", "votes": 4287, "pct": 79.93 }, { "name": "Ján Žatko", "party": "SME RODINA, KDH, ZA ĽUDÍ, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení, SPOLU", "votes": 1076, "pct": 20.06 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529371.json, graph01/529371.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 44.29, "registered_voters": 14543, "valid_votes": 6255, "results": [ { "name": "Dárius Krajčír", "party": "SaS, SME RODINA - Boris Kollár, NOVA", "votes": 3170, "pct": 50.67 }, { "name": "Rastislav Tešovič", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2093, "pct": 33.46 }, { "name": "Peter Hanulík", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 536, "pct": 8.56 }, { "name": "Denis Ružovič", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 298, "pct": 4.76 }, { "name": "Martin Bavolár", "party": "Slovenská ľudová strana (SĽS)", "votes": 158, "pct": 2.52 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529371.json, graph01/529371.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "Strong incumbent (79.93 % in 2022 vs a broad SME RODINA/KDH/Za ľudí/SPOLU candidate). No candidate from Vallo's coalition or Smer/Hlas. Two candidates named Krajčír on the ballot (Dárius = incumbent, #1; Ľuboš = challenger, #2) - possible voter confusion. Turnout 2022 39.50 %. POLLS/ODDS: no public scientific poll and no bookmaker odds found for this district as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529371.json, graph01/529371.json)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529371.json, graph01/529371.json)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.devinskanovaves.sk/data/page/devinskanovaves.sk/31556/zoznam-zaregistrovanych-kandidatov-pre-volby-starostu_.pdf" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Dárius Krajčír", "party": "Som Slovensko - strana obcí a miest", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 60.0, "mean": 57.6, "lo80": 24.2, "hi80": 87.1, "p_win": 0.7198, "p_win_blind": 0.7198, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 59.8, "fund_p_win": 0.7247, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.7993 }, { "name": "Ľuboš Krajčír", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 19.8, "mean": 25.1, "lo80": 4.8, "hi80": 54.5, "p_win": 0.1888, "p_win_blind": 0.1888, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 20.1, "fund_p_win": 0.1825, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Denis Ružovič", "party": "Strana vidieka", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 12.2, "mean": 17.3, "lo80": 2.9, "hi80": 39.5, "p_win": 0.0913, "p_win_blind": 0.0913, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 12.4, "fund_p_win": 0.0928, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-zahorska-bystrica", "name": "Záhorská Bystrica", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 5154, "incumbent": { "name": "Jozef Krúpa", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "SOM Slovensko", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 52.67, "registered_voters": 5154, "valid_votes": 2494, "results": [ { "name": "Jozef Krúpa", "party": "SOM Slovensko", "votes": 2117, "pct": 84.88 }, { "name": "Róbert Martauz", "party": "NK/NEKA", "votes": 377, "pct": 15.11 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529427.json, graph01/529427.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 62.06, "registered_voters": 4360, "valid_votes": 2648, "results": [ { "name": "Jozef Krúpa", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1605, "pct": 60.61 }, { "name": "Ivan Bošňák", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1043, "pct": 39.38 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529427.json, graph01/529427.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "UNCONTESTED: winner certain (Krúpa). Turnout 2022 52.67 %. 'since' = 2018 is earliest verified in ŠÚ SR data used here. POLLS/ODDS: no public scientific poll and no bookmaker odds found for this district as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529427.json, graph01/529427.json)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529427.json, graph01/529427.json)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://zahorskabystrica.sk/zoznam-zaregistrovanych-kandidatov-pre-volby-starostu-a-poslancov-miestneho-zastupitelstva/" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Jozef Krúpa", "party": "Som Slovensko – strana obcí a miest", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 100.0, "mean": 100.0, "lo80": 100.0, "hi80": 100.0, "p_win": 1.0, "p_win_blind": 1.0, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 100.0, "fund_p_win": 1.0, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.8488 } ] }, { "id": "mc-petrzalka", "name": "Petržalka", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 97824, "incumbent": { "name": "Ján Hrčka", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 32.23, "registered_voters": 97824, "valid_votes": 29949, "results": [ { "name": "Ján Hrčka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 23120, "pct": 77.19 }, { "name": "Elena Pätoprstá", "party": "Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 4172, "pct": 13.93 }, { "name": "Martin Kližan", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2657, "pct": 8.87 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529460.json, graph01/529460.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 34.59, "registered_voters": 97779, "valid_votes": 32614, "results": [ { "name": "Ján Hrčka", "party": "SaS, NOVA, KDH, OKS, SME RODINA - Boris Kollár", "votes": 10659, "pct": 32.68 }, { "name": "Tatiana Kratochvílová", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, SPOLU", "votes": 5640, "pct": 17.29 }, { "name": "Oliver Kríž", "party": "MLADÁ PETRŽALKA - lokálna strana", "votes": 3879, "pct": 11.89 }, { "name": "Ján Bučan", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3489, "pct": 10.69 }, { "name": "Ľudmila Farkašovská", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3023, "pct": 9.26 }, { "name": "Elena Pätoprstá", "party": "Zmena zdola, DÚ, OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti (OĽANO)", "votes": 2908, "pct": 8.91 }, { "name": "Miroslav Dragun", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1626, "pct": 4.98 }, { "name": "Marián Chmelár", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 916, "pct": 2.8 }, { "name": "Marian Greksa", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 368, "pct": 1.12 }, { "name": "Tomáš Szmrecsányi", "party": "NÁRODNÁ KOALÍCIA", "votes": 106, "pct": 0.32 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529460.json, graph01/529460.json)", "note": "ŠÚ SR marks Marian Greksa with 'X' (withdrew/kandidatúra zanikla); votes still listed. valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "Hrčka is a heavy favourite on track record (77.19 % in 2022, 78.58 % in 2025 by-election) but 2026 is the first time he faces a Vallo-coalition nominee directly (in 2022 the coalition did not field a starosta candidate against him; PS/SaS/TB then won 33 of 35 council seats per ŠÚ SR, https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab07/529460.json). The coalition now frames the race as anti-Smer; Krajina positions centre-right. Petržalka turnout is low (32.23 % in 2022, ~16 % in 2025 by-election); same-day local referendum and BA mayor race (Vallo vs Ráž) may lift turnout and help the coalition nominee. Non-scientific online vote on komunalne-volby.sk (20 self-selected votes, 2026-10-09) is NOT a poll and is excluded. 2018 result: Greksa flagged 'X' by ŠÚ SR (candidacy lapsed/withdrew). Mravec's 2025 share is derived (100 - 78.58), not officially sourced. POLLS/ODDS: no public scientific poll and no bookmaker odds found for this district as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529460.json, graph01/529460.json)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529460.json, graph01/529460.json)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.bratislavak.sk/komunalne-volby/bratislava-petrzalka", "https://www.petrzalka.sk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-10_web-1.pdf", "https://www.petrzalka.sk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Rozdelenie-plagatovych-ploch-DK-Zrkadlovy-haj.pdf" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Ján Hrčka", "party": "Krajina", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 56.0, "mean": 54.6, "lo80": 21.6, "hi80": 85.3, "p_win": 0.6788, "p_win_blind": 0.6788, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 55.8, "fund_p_win": 0.6836, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.7719 }, { "name": "Juraj Mravec", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 19.4, "mean": 24.7, "lo80": 4.8, "hi80": 53.5, "p_win": 0.1852, "p_win_blind": 0.1852, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 19.7, "fund_p_win": 0.1845, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": "V doplňujúcich voľbách 6. 9. 2025 získal asi 21,4 % proti Hrčkovi (dopočet 100 − 78,58).", "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.214 }, { "name": "Daniel Klimovský", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 15.4, "mean": 20.7, "lo80": 3.7, "hi80": 46.6, "p_win": 0.1361, "p_win_blind": 0.1361, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 15.5, "fund_p_win": 0.1319, "swing": 0.05, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-jarovce", "name": "Jarovce", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 2149, "incumbent": { "name": "Jozef Uhler", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 53.32, "registered_voters": 2149, "valid_votes": 1009, "results": [ { "name": "Jozef Uhler", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1009, "pct": 100.0 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529443.json, graph01/529443.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 62.56, "registered_voters": 1867, "valid_votes": 1049, "results": [ { "name": "Jozef Uhler", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 749, "pct": 71.4 }, { "name": "Pavel Škodler", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 259, "pct": 24.69 }, { "name": "Albín Valovič", "party": "NAJ", "votes": 41, "pct": 3.9 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529443.json, graph01/529443.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "UNCONTESTED (as in 2022): winner certain. Official MČ PDF not retrieved; list from aktuality.sk and bratislavskevolby.sk (based on MČ lists/TASR). Turnout 2022 53.32 %. POLLS/ODDS: no public scientific poll and no bookmaker odds found for this district as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://bratislavskevolby.sk/aktuality/kandidati-na-starostu-v-deviatich-mestskych-castiach", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529443.json, graph01/529443.json)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529443.json, graph01/529443.json)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.bratislavak.sk/komunalne-volby/bratislava-petrzalka" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Jozef Uhler", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 100.0, "mean": 100.0, "lo80": 100.0, "hi80": 100.0, "p_win": 1.0, "p_win_blind": 1.0, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 100.0, "fund_p_win": 1.0, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 1.0 } ] }, { "id": "mc-rusovce", "name": "Rusovce", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 3456, "incumbent": { "name": "Radovan Jenčík", "since": 2022, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 55.98, "registered_voters": 3456, "valid_votes": 1836, "results": [ { "name": "Radovan Jenčík", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1101, "pct": 59.96 }, { "name": "Lucia Tuleková Henčelová", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko", "votes": 735, "pct": 40.03 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529494.json, graph01/529494.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 60.14, "registered_voters": 3350, "valid_votes": 1950, "results": [ { "name": "Lucia Tuleková Henčelová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 990, "pct": 50.76 }, { "name": "Dušan Antoš", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 960, "pct": 49.23 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529494.json, graph01/529494.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "UNCONTESTED: winner certain. 2018 was a near tie (Tuleková Henčelová 50.76 % vs Antoš 49.23 %). Official MČ PDF not retrieved; list from aktuality.sk, HN and bratislavskevolby.sk. Turnout 2022 55.98 %. POLLS/ODDS: no public scientific poll and no bookmaker odds found for this district as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://bratislavskevolby.sk/aktuality/kandidati-na-starostu-v-deviatich-mestskych-castiach", "https://hnonline.sk/volby-2026/komunalne-volby-2026/96308738-komunalne-volby-2026-bratislava-rusovce-kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-primatora-a-poslancov", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529494.json, graph01/529494.json)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529494.json, graph01/529494.json)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Radovan Jenčík", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 100.0, "mean": 100.0, "lo80": 100.0, "hi80": 100.0, "p_win": 1.0, "p_win_blind": 1.0, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 100.0, "fund_p_win": 1.0, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.5996 } ] }, { "id": "mc-cunovo", "name": "Čunovo", "office": "starosta", "group": "mc", "voters": 1259, "incumbent": { "name": "Gabriela Ferenčáková", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "SOM Slovensko", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 62.82, "registered_voters": 1259, "valid_votes": 730, "results": [ { "name": "Gabriela Ferenčáková", "party": "SOM Slovensko", "votes": 519, "pct": 71.09 }, { "name": "Richard Puchala", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 149, "pct": 20.41 }, { "name": "Michaela Forróová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 62, "pct": 8.49 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529435.json, graph01/529435.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 72.86, "registered_voters": 1194, "valid_votes": 849, "results": [ { "name": "Gabriela Ferenčáková", "party": "SaS, OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti (OĽANO), KDH, SME RODINA - Boris Kollár, OKS, NOVA, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 535, "pct": 63.01 }, { "name": "Marián Krist", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 314, "pct": 36.98 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529435.json, graph01/529435.json)", "note": "valid_votes = valid ballots cast for starosta (C09); turnout_pct = ŠÚ SR účasť." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [], "poll_info": null, "notes": "Smallest electorate in scope (1,259 registered 2022) and highest turnout (62.82 % 2022, 72.86 % 2018), so ~700-900 valid votes decide. Incumbent won 2022 with 71.09 % (vs 20.41 % and 8.49 %). Four-way split of the anti-incumbent vote favours Ferenčáková under plurality rule; Krist is the only challenger with a proven base (36.98 % in 2018 head-to-head). Incumbent age 72. Official MČ PDF not retrieved; ballot order from topky.sk (Boška, Ferenčáková, Kausich, Krist, Šimunek). POLLS/ODDS: no public scientific poll and no bookmaker odds found for this district as of 2026-10-20.", "sources": [ "https://bratislavskevolby.sk/aktuality/kandidati-na-starostu-v-deviatich-mestskych-castiach", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/sk/data02.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/json/tab05/529435.json, graph01/529435.json)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/sk/vysledky_obce.html (JSON: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/json/tab05/529435.json, graph01/529435.json)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/qXyfW7d/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-starostov-mestskych-casti-v-bratislave-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9524443/Komunalne-volby-2026---Bratislava-Cunovo--kandidati-na-starostu--poslanci-a-vysledky" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Gabriela Ferenčáková", "party": "Som Slovensko - strana obcí a miest", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 22.9, "mean": 27.1, "lo80": 6.9, "hi80": 54.3, "p_win": 0.3318, "p_win_blind": 0.3318, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 24.0, "fund_p_win": 0.3575, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.7109 }, { "name": "Marián Krist", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 17.4, "mean": 21.8, "lo80": 4.9, "hi80": 45.7, "p_win": 0.2303, "p_win_blind": 0.2303, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 13.7, "fund_p_win": 0.1609, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.3, "adj_reason": "V roku 2018 získal proti dnešnej starostke 36,98 %. V roku 2022 nekandidoval, takže to model nevidí.", "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Ivan Boška", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 12.8, "mean": 17.0, "lo80": 3.5, "hi80": 37.0, "p_win": 0.1441, "p_win_blind": 0.1441, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 13.5, "fund_p_win": 0.1625, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Marek Kausich", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 12.8, "mean": 17.1, "lo80": 3.5, "hi80": 37.4, "p_win": 0.1484, "p_win_blind": 0.1484, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 13.6, "fund_p_win": 0.1583, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Michal Šimunek", "party": "NEKA (nezávislý kandidát)", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 12.7, "mean": 16.9, "lo80": 3.5, "hi80": 36.8, "p_win": 0.1454, "p_win_blind": 0.1454, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 13.6, "fund_p_win": 0.1608, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mesto-bratislava", "name": "Bratislava", "office": "primator", "group": "mesto", "voters": 407992, "incumbent": { "name": "Matúš Vallo", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, SaS", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 36.9, "registered_voters": 407992, "valid_votes": 144486, "results": [ { "name": "Matúš Vallo", "party": "Team Bratislava, PS, SaS", "votes": 86981, "pct": 60.2 }, { "name": "Rudolf Kusý", "party": "SME RODINA, KDH, ZA ĽUDÍ, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení, SZÖVETSÉG - ALIANCIA", "votes": 40063, "pct": 27.7 }, { "name": "Miroslav Heredoš", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 6239, "pct": 4.3 }, { "name": "Andrej Trnovec", "party": "SĽS", "votes": 3446, "pct": 2.4 }, { "name": "Martin Mlýnek", "party": "NOVA, OKS, Zmena zdola, DÚ, OĽANO-NOVA-KÚ-ZMENA ZDOLA", "votes": 3005, "pct": 2.1 }, { "name": "Martin Jakubec", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 2017, "pct": 1.4 }, { "name": "Miroslav Vetrík", "party": "ŽIVOT", "votes": 1162, "pct": 0.8 }, { "name": "Peter Poláček", "party": "Hnutie ONÁS", "votes": 942, "pct": 0.7 }, { "name": "Milena Minichová", "party": "SMS", "votes": 631, "pct": 0.4 } ], "source": "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9524409/Komunalne-volby-2026---Bratislava--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky (cites ŠÚ SR); valid votes + turnout 36.88 % confirmed at https://bratislava.sk/spravy/vysledky-komunalnych-volieb" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 40.67, "registered_voters": 402062, "valid_votes": 160304, "results": [ { "name": "Matúš Vallo", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, SPOLU", "votes": 58578, "pct": 36.54 }, { "name": "Václav Mika", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 36661, "pct": 22.86 }, { "name": "Ivo Nesrovnal", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 29531, "pct": 18.42 }, { "name": "Ján Mrva", "party": "OĽANO, SaS, SME RODINA, KDH, OKS, NOVA, Zmena zdola, DÚ", "votes": 27689, "pct": 17.27 }, { "name": "Iveta Plšeková", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2445, "pct": 1.52 }, { "name": "Roman Ruhig", "party": "SNJ-sv", "votes": 2010, "pct": 1.25 }, { "name": "Miroslav Vetrík", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1204, "pct": 0.75 }, { "name": "Andrej Trnovec", "party": "SĽS", "votes": 886, "pct": 0.55 }, { "name": "Viktor Béreš", "party": "NAJ, Mladí ľudia", "votes": 805, "pct": 0.5 }, { "name": "Jaroslav Brada", "party": "SMS", "votes": 495, "pct": 0.3 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bx.xlsx" } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "SANEP", "fieldwork_end": "2026-05-27", "n": null, "sponsor": "TA3", "results": { "Matúš Vallo": 41.3, "Martin Winkler": 14.4 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://bratislavskevolby.sk/aktuality/co-ukazali-prieskumy-vallo-winkler-raz", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "Ixactly", "fieldwork_end": "2026-06-03", "n": null, "sponsor": "unknown (published via SITA 2026-06-05)", "results": { "Matúš Vallo": 39.5, "Jozef Ráž": 17.9, "Martin Winkler": 13.4 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://bratislavskevolby.sk/aktuality/co-ukazali-prieskumy-vallo-winkler-raz", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "Communications & Campaigns", "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-07", "n": 1000, "sponsor": "SITA", "results": { "Matúš Vallo": 37.4, "Martin Winkler": 18.5, "Jozef Ráž": 18.1, "Zuzana Šubová": 4.3, "Miroslav Heredoš": 1.7 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://sita.sk/ma-v-bratislave-silnejsiu-poziciu-raz-alebo-winkler-prieskum-ukazal-kto-by-vyhral-volby/", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "SCIO", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-11", "n": 92, "sponsor": "Startitup (exclusive)", "results": { "Matúš Vallo": 26.09, "Jozef Ráž": 11.96, "Martin Winkler": 4.35, "Miroslav Heredoš": 2.17 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.startitup.sk/exkluzivny-prieskum-81-slovakov-sa-zucastni-komunalnych-volieb-viac-ako-70-nevie-koho-bude-volit/", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "SANEP", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-04", "n": 1000, "sponsor": "Kanal1", "results": { "Matúš Vallo": 43.2, "Jozef Ráž": 40.6, "Zuzana Šubová": 11.6, "Ľubomír Geci": 4.6 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://kanal1.sk/exkluzivny-prieskum-pre-kanal1-kto-by-sa-stal-primatorom-bratislavy-a-kto-by-viedol-bratislavsky-kraj-keby-sa-volby-konali-dnes/", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "Ixactly", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-11", "n": 624, "sponsor": "TV Markíza", "results": { "Matúš Vallo": 47.3, "Jozef Ráž": 32.7, "Zuzana Šubová": 3.7, "Ľubomír Geci": 2.6 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://regiony.zoznam.sk/budu-mat-bratislava-a-kosice-novych-primatorov-novy-prieskum-ukazal-pozoruhodne-cisla/", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Matúš Vallo": 1.04, "Jozef Ráž": 9.0, "Zuzana Šubová": 40.0, "Ľubomír Geci": 200.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-bratislavy-2026/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Matúš Vallo": 1.07, "Jozef Ráž": 7.0, "Zuzana Šubová": 50.0, "Ľubomír Geci": 180.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-bratislavy-2026/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Matúš Vallo": 1.05, "Jozef Ráž": 8.5, "Zuzana Šubová": 40.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.837, "poll_sd": 0.062, "n_polls": 6 }, "notes": "6 registered, 2 withdrew after registration (Heredoš, Winkler) — names stay on ballot, votes not counted; effective field = 4 (Vallo, Ráž, Šubová, Geci). Polls diverge sharply: SANEP/Kanal1 (CAWI) has Vallo +2.6 among decided, Ixactly/Markíza has Vallo +14.6 (≈ +17 among decided). AKO/JOJ poll due 20.10 evening reportedly shows a close race — check before finalising. Bookmakers strongly favour Vallo (implied ~93–96 %). Winkler's July support (18.5 %) partially transfers to Ráž; C&C July head-to-head had Vallo 53.7 vs Ráž 34.4. Historical: Vallo 2022 60.2 % vs combined KDH/SR/ZĽ challenger 27.7 %; turnout 36.9 % (2022), 40.7 % (2018). Polls report 'declared turnout' 42–80 % — not credible as literal turnout. Ráž is formally NEKA but widely perceived as Smer candidate (Hlavný denník: 'nom. SMER-SD'). Vallo's 2026 coalition = Team BA + PS + SaS + Demokrati.", "sources": [ "https://banm.sk/data/advertisement/banm.sk/532442/204469_Zoznam%20zaregistrovan%C3%BDch%20kandid%C3%A1tov%20pre%20vo%C4%BEby%20prim%C3%A1tora%20mesta%20Bratislava.pdf", "https://bratislavskevolby.sk/aktuality/co-ukazali-prieskumy-vallo-winkler-raz", "https://volby.sme.sk/komunalne-volby/2026/kandidati/bratislava-okres/bratislava/primatori", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bx.xlsx", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/xczK1TB/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-primatora-mesta-bratislava-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9524409/Komunalne-volby-2026---Bratislava--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky (cites ŠÚ SR); valid votes + turnout 36.88 % confirmed at https://bratislava.sk/spravy/vysledky-komunalnych-volieb" ], "withdrawn": [ { "name": "Miroslav Heredoš", "transfer_to": null }, { "name": "Martin Winkler", "transfer_to": "Jozef Ráž" } ], "candidates": [ { "name": "Matúš Vallo", "party": "Team Bratislava, Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 53.5, "mean": 53.2, "lo80": 37.1, "hi80": 68.9, "p_win": 0.8822, "p_win_blind": 0.7883, "p_win_market": 0.9328, "fund_share": 68.1, "fund_p_win": 0.8595, "swing": 0.05, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.602 }, { "name": "Jozef Ráž", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 33.3, "mean": 34.1, "lo80": 19.8, "hi80": 49.4, "p_win": 0.1167, "p_win_blind": 0.2117, "p_win_market": 0.0604, "fund_share": 9.8, "fund_p_win": 0.0696, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": "Formálne nezávislý, ale minister dopravy nominovaný Smerom. V simulácii nesie spoločný šok vládneho bloku (bez úpravy podielu).", "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Zuzana Šubová", "party": "Pirátska strana - Slovensko", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 7.6, "mean": 8.2, "lo80": 4.3, "hi80": 13.0, "p_win": 0.0008, "p_win_blind": 0.0001, "p_win_market": 0.0063, "fund_share": 7.6, "fund_p_win": 0.0425, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Ľubomír Geci", "party": "MySlovensko", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 4.1, "mean": 4.5, "lo80": 2.3, "hi80": 7.2, "p_win": 0.0003, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0009, "fund_share": 6.0, "fund_p_win": 0.0284, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mesto-kosice", "name": "Košice", "office": "primator", "group": "mesto", "voters": 194674, "incumbent": { "name": "Jaroslav Polaček", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "KDH, SaS, SME RODINA, NOVA, SZÖVETSÉG - ALIANCIA, SRK, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení, OĽANO-NOVA-KÚ-ZMENA ZDOLA", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 30.9, "registered_voters": 194674, "valid_votes": 55884, "results": [ { "name": "Jaroslav Polaček", "party": "KDH, SaS, SME RODINA, NOVA, SZÖVETSÉG - ALIANCIA, SRK, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení, OĽANO-NOVA-KÚ-ZMENA ZDOLA", "votes": 20561, "pct": 36.8 }, { "name": "Milan Lesňák", "party": "ZA ĽUDÍ", "votes": 11849, "pct": 21.2 }, { "name": "Miloslav Klíma", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 10655, "pct": 19.1 }, { "name": "Monika Kováčová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4322, "pct": 7.7 }, { "name": "Štefan Lasky", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4178, "pct": 7.5 }, { "name": "Viliam Novotný", "party": "SPOLU, DS, ŠANCA, ODS", "votes": 2453, "pct": 4.4 }, { "name": "Jozef Karabin", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1062, "pct": 1.9 }, { "name": "Jaroslav Džunko", "party": "SMS", "votes": 804, "pct": 1.4 } ], "source": "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9529345/Komunalne-volby-2026---Kosice--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky (cites ŠÚ SR); valid_votes = sum of candidate votes" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 35.71, "registered_voters": 197859, "valid_votes": 67348, "results": [ { "name": "Jaroslav Polaček", "party": "SaS, KDH, SMK-MKP, NOVA, OKS", "votes": 29157, "pct": 43.29 }, { "name": "Martin Petruško", "party": "SMER-SD, SNS", "votes": 16044, "pct": 23.82 }, { "name": "Alena Bašistová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 10001, "pct": 14.84 }, { "name": "Viliam Novotný", "party": "ŠANCA", "votes": 6084, "pct": 9.03 }, { "name": "Vladimír Vágási", "party": "MOST - HÍD", "votes": 1325, "pct": 1.96 }, { "name": "Džemal Kodrazi", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1061, "pct": 1.57 }, { "name": "Štefan Horváth", "party": "NÁRODNÁ KOALÍCIA", "votes": 733, "pct": 1.08 }, { "name": "Miroslav Špak", "party": "NEKA (withdrew)", "votes": 645, "pct": 0.95 }, { "name": "Jaroslav Džunko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 622, "pct": 0.92 }, { "name": "Milan Lesňák", "party": "NEKA (withdrew)", "votes": 493, "pct": 0.73 }, { "name": "Ján Dečo", "party": "NEKA (withdrew)", "votes": 432, "pct": 0.64 }, { "name": "Richard Havrilla", "party": "NEKA (withdrew)", "votes": 414, "pct": 0.61 }, { "name": "Ján Struk", "party": "SMS", "votes": 337, "pct": 0.5 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bx.xlsx (ŠÚ marks Špak, Lesňák, Dečo, Havrilla with 'X' = withdrawn)" } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "KEE spol. s r.o.", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-14", "n": 754, "sponsor": "published by KEE spol. s r.o. (paid 'informačný servis' on SITA; client unknown)", "results": { "Ladislav Lörinc": 23.21, "Lenka Kovačevičová": 20.69, "Jaroslav Polaček": 19.36, "Martin Mudrák": 18.44, "Ladislav Lörincz": 3.98, "Alexander Riabov": 2.65, "Miroslav Sabol": 1.19, "Alexander Székely": 0.93 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://sita.sk/prieskum-verejnej-mienky-a-pohlad-vyvoja-zvolitelnosti-na-kandidatov-na-primatora-mesta-kosice/", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "Focus", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-21", "n": 611, "sponsor": "Jaroslav Polaček campaign", "results": { "Jaroslav Polaček": 21.9, "Ladislav Lörinc": 20.3, "Martin Mudrák": 13.4, "Lenka Kovačevičová": 10.0 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://korzar.sme.sk/kosice/c/suboj-o-kosickeho-primatora-je-tesny-polacek-sa-v-novom-prieskume-dostal-pred-l-rinca", "partisan": true }, { "pollster": "Focus", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-07", "n": 517, "sponsor": "Martin Mudrák campaign", "results": { "Ladislav Lörinc": 29.2, "Martin Mudrák": 21.3, "Jaroslav Polaček": 20.9, "Lenka Kovačevičová": 15.1, "Alexander Riabov": 7.3, "Miroslav Sabol": 2.8, "Ladislav Lörincz": 2.4, "Alexander Székely": 0.8 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://maxivyber.sk/slovensko/favoritom-volieb-primatora-kosic-je-podla-najnovsieho-prieskumu-ladislav-lorinc-polacek-je-az-treti", "partisan": true }, { "pollster": "Ixactly", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-11", "n": 388, "sponsor": "TV Markíza", "results": { "Ladislav Lörinc": 18.3, "Martin Mudrák": 17.0, "Jaroslav Polaček": 16.5, "Lenka Kovačevičová": 9.0, "Alexander Riabov": 4.6, "Ladislav Lörincz": 2.8, "Miroslav Sabol": 2.8, "Alexander Székely": 1.8 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://regiony.zoznam.sk/budu-mat-bratislava-a-kosice-novych-primatorov-novy-prieskum-ukazal-pozoruhodne-cisla/", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "SANEP", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-18", "n": 650, "sponsor": "TA3", "results": { "Ladislav Lörinc": 27.5, "Jaroslav Polaček": 21.2, "Lenka Kovačevičová": 20.8, "Martin Mudrák": 18.1, "Alexander Riabov": 5.4, "Ladislav Lörincz": 3.1, "Miroslav Sabol": 2.6, "Alexander Székely": 1.3 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.pravda.sk/spravy/regionalne-volby-2026/clanok/2062305-prieskum-sanep-kto-ovladne-kosice-a-kto-zupu-novy-prieskum-odhalil-favoritov-v-hre-su-aj-tesne-suboje", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Ladislav Lörinc": 1.45, "Jaroslav Polaček": 2.8, "Martin Mudrák": 5.5, "Lenka Kovačevičová": 12.0, "Alexander Riabov": 120.0, "Miroslav Sabol": 200.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-kosic-2026/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Ladislav Lörinc": 1.55, "Jaroslav Polaček": 2.6, "Martin Mudrák": 6.0, "Lenka Kovačevičová": 12.0, "Alexander Riabov": 100.0, "Miroslav Sabol": 200.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-kosic-2026/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Ladislav Lörinc": 1.45, "Jaroslav Polaček": 2.5, "Martin Mudrák": 4.0, "Lenka Kovačevičová": 8.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-kosic-2026/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.848, "poll_sd": 0.059, "n_polls": 5 }, "notes": "No withdrawals found as of 2026-10-20 (all 8 still in SANEP 13–18 Oct poll; stavkynavolby lists only 6 because it omits the two fringe candidates). Genuinely open 4-way race under plurality rule: Lörinc leads 4 of 5 polls (only Polaček-commissioned Focus has Polaček first); 2nd–4th within margin. Winning threshold likely ~25–30 %. Low turnout city (30.9 % in 2022). Name-confusion risk: Lörinc (#2, Košická strana) vs Lörincz (#3, Jednota Slovanov) — Lörincz polls 2.4–4 %, part may be misdirected Lörinc votes. Polaček's 2022 coalition included SME RODINA, now not. Mudrák (PS) and Kovačevičová split the anti-incumbent vote with Lörinc. Polls from campaigns (Focus x2) should be down-weighted.", "sources": [ "https://static.kosice.sk/files/manual/volby/volby2026_zoznam_zaregistrovanych_primator.pdf", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bx.xlsx (ŠÚ marks Špak, Lesňák, Dečo, Havrilla with 'X' = withdrawn)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/W8n9gmb/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-primatorov-krajskych-miest-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.kosice.sk/obcan/komunalne-volby-2026", "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9529345/Komunalne-volby-2026---Kosice--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky (cites ŠÚ SR); valid_votes = sum of candidate votes" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Ladislav Lörinc", "party": "Košická strana", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 23.7, "mean": 24.4, "lo80": 15.3, "hi80": 34.5, "p_win": 0.4895, "p_win_blind": 0.3866, "p_win_market": 0.5831, "fund_share": 9.2, "fund_p_win": 0.1101, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": "Starosta mestskej časti Sídlisko KVP od 2018: rys 'úradujúci starosta inej samosprávy' (koeficient z dát).", "exec_office": true, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Jaroslav Polaček", "party": "KDH, Sloboda a solidarita, Magyar szövetség - Maďarská aliancia, Strana rómskej koalície - SRK, NOVA, Demokratická strana - Občianski demokrati Slovenska", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 23.6, "mean": 24.4, "lo80": 15.3, "hi80": 34.6, "p_win": 0.3262, "p_win_blind": 0.3855, "p_win_market": 0.2656, "fund_share": 29.2, "fund_p_win": 0.532, "swing": 0.027, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.368 }, { "name": "Martin Mudrák", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, Demokrati, Za ľudí", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 17.6, "mean": 18.3, "lo80": 11.0, "hi80": 26.6, "p_win": 0.1181, "p_win_blind": 0.1252, "p_win_market": 0.1089, "fund_share": 5.9, "fund_p_win": 0.052, "swing": 0.041, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Lenka Kovačevičová", "party": "Tím Košice, Starostovia a nezávislí kandidáti, Právo na pravdu", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 16.7, "mean": 17.5, "lo80": 10.5, "hi80": 25.4, "p_win": 0.0655, "p_win_blind": 0.1027, "p_win_market": 0.0403, "fund_share": 11.8, "fund_p_win": 0.1564, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": "Starostka mestskej časti Nad jazerom od 2014: rys 'úradujúci starosta inej samosprávy' (koeficient z dát).", "exec_office": true, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Alexander Riabov", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 5.5, "mean": 5.9, "lo80": 3.3, "hi80": 9.0, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0021, "fund_share": 6.1, "fund_p_win": 0.0536, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Ladislav Lörincz", "party": "Jednota Slovanov", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 3.5, "mean": 3.8, "lo80": 2.1, "hi80": 5.8, "p_win": 0.0, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 3.9, "fund_p_win": 0.0219, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Miroslav Sabol", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 3.3, "mean": 3.6, "lo80": 2.0, "hi80": 5.5, "p_win": 0.0003, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0009, "fund_share": 6.1, "fund_p_win": 0.0528, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Alexander Székely", "party": "Slovenské hnutie obrody", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 2.0, "mean": 2.1, "lo80": 1.2, "hi80": 3.2, "p_win": 0.0, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": null, "fund_share": 3.9, "fund_p_win": 0.0212, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mesto-banska-bystrica", "name": "Banská Bystrica", "office": "primator", "group": "mesto", "voters": 63163, "incumbent": { "name": "Ján Nosko", "since": 2014, "party_2022": "NEKA (supported by Hlas, Smer, SNS, Sme rodina per aktuality.sk)", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 39.8, "registered_voters": 63163, "valid_votes": 24556, "results": [ { "name": "Ján Nosko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 16248, "pct": 66.2 }, { "name": "Diana Javorčíková", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 6102, "pct": 24.8 }, { "name": "Daniel Karas", "party": "SMER - SD, REPUBLIKA", "votes": 1660, "pct": 6.8 }, { "name": "Peter Podhorský", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 331, "pct": 1.3 }, { "name": "Jozef Sásik", "party": "SĽS", "votes": 116, "pct": 0.5 }, { "name": "Anton Minárik", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 99, "pct": 0.4 } ], "source": "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9526991/Komunalne-volby-2026---Banska-Bystrica--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky (cites ŠÚ SR); valid_votes = sum of candidate votes" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 37.93, "registered_voters": 65485, "valid_votes": 24312, "results": [ { "name": "Ján Nosko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 18281, "pct": 75.19 }, { "name": "Igor Kašper", "party": "SaS, OĽANO, KDH, SME RODINA, Progresívne Slovensko", "votes": 5490, "pct": 22.58 }, { "name": "Jozef Sásik", "party": "SĽS", "votes": 401, "pct": 1.64 }, { "name": "Peter Peuker", "party": "NAJ", "votes": 140, "pct": 0.57 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx" } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Focus", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-11", "n": 502, "sponsor": "Diana Javorčíková campaign", "results": { "Ján Nosko": 38.3, "Diana Javorčíková": 36.7, "Matúš Molitoris": 13.0, "Tomáš Sobota": 12.0 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.bystricak.sk/clanky/12698/suboj-o-primatora-banskej-bystrice-moze-byt-tesny-prieskum-ukazal-rozdiel-necele-dve-percenta", "partisan": true }, { "pollster": "AKO", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-29", "n": 500, "sponsor": "BBonline.sk + BB FM rádio", "results": { "Ján Nosko": 38.7, "Diana Javorčíková": 35.5, "Matúš Molitoris": 12.9, "Tomáš Sobota": 10.0, "Marian Kotleba": 2.4, "Ondrej Vereš": 0.5 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://bbonline.sk/prieskum-ako-pre-bbonline-sk-volby-primatora-banskej-bystrice-prinesu-tesny-suboj-jana-noska-a-diany-javorcikovej/", "partisan": false }, { "pollster": "SANEP", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-14", "n": 600, "sponsor": "TA3", "results": { "Ján Nosko": 40.9, "Diana Javorčíková": 34.1, "Matúš Molitoris": 18.6, "Marian Kotleba": 5.0, "Ondrej Vereš": 1.4 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.ta3.com/clanok/1077195/prieskum-pre-ta3-suboj-o-bansku-bystricu-sa-zamotava-jeden-z-kandidatov-vyrazne-stiahol-naskok-lidra", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Diana Javorčíková": 1.65, "Ján Nosko": 2.0, "Matúš Molitoris": 20.0, "Marian Kotleba": 88.0, "Ondrej Vereš": 150.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Diana Javorčíková": 1.7, "Ján Nosko": 1.9, "Matúš Molitoris": 25.0, "Marian Kotleba": 90.0, "Ondrej Vereš": 120.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Diana Javorčíková": 1.65, "Ján Nosko": 1.92, "Matúš Molitoris": 20.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.82, "poll_sd": 0.066, "n_polls": 3 }, "notes": "6 registered; Sobota withdrew 8 Oct (ballot no. 5, votes not counted) → 5 effective. Polls: Nosko leads all four (by 1.6–11.4 pts), lead narrowed to 6.8 in SANEP Oct after Sobota's exit; but all three bookmakers make Javorčíková slight favourite (implied ~55–58 %) — a notable polls-vs-market divergence. Nosko won 2022 with 66 % vs Javorčíková 25 % on 39.8 % turnout; he is formally independent but drew support from the governing coalition (Hlas, Smer, SNS, Sme rodina in 2022) — national anti-government mood could hurt him. Molitoris (12–19 %) splits the change vote. Ballot numbers inferred from alphabetical registration order (topky table shows 1–4 and 6 with Sobota as 5); official city PDF not read directly.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/CtAKOP1/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-primatora-mesta-banska-bystrica-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.banskabystrica.sk/samosprava/volby-2026/", "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9526991/Komunalne-volby-2026---Banska-Bystrica--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky", "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9526991/Komunalne-volby-2026---Banska-Bystrica--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky (cites ŠÚ SR); valid_votes = sum of candidate votes" ], "withdrawn": [ { "name": "Tomáš Sobota", "transfer_to": "Diana Javorčíková" } ], "candidates": [ { "name": "Ján Nosko", "party": "NEKA", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 42.1, "mean": 42.5, "lo80": 27.8, "hi80": 57.6, "p_win": 0.5451, "p_win_blind": 0.6433, "p_win_market": 0.4411, "fund_share": 48.0, "fund_p_win": 0.6915, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.662 }, { "name": "Diana Javorčíková", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati, Hnutie Slovensko, Občianska konzervatívna strana", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 33.6, "mean": 34.2, "lo80": 20.6, "hi80": 49.0, "p_win": 0.435, "p_win_blind": 0.3412, "p_win_market": 0.532, "fund_share": 14.7, "fund_p_win": 0.1545, "swing": 0.058, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.248 }, { "name": "Matúš Molitoris", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 15.3, "mean": 16.3, "lo80": 8.8, "hi80": 25.2, "p_win": 0.0188, "p_win_blind": 0.0155, "p_win_market": 0.0226, "fund_share": 10.9, "fund_p_win": 0.0996, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Marian Kotleba", "party": "Kotlebovci - Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 4.3, "mean": 4.7, "lo80": 2.4, "hi80": 7.6, "p_win": 0.0006, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.004, "fund_share": 5.4, "fund_p_win": 0.0279, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Ondrej Vereš", "party": "Strana vidieka", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 2.0, "mean": 2.2, "lo80": 1.1, "hi80": 3.6, "p_win": 0.0005, "p_win_blind": 0.0, "p_win_market": 0.0025, "fund_share": 5.5, "fund_p_win": 0.0266, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mesto-nitra", "name": "Nitra", "office": "primator", "group": "mesto", "voters": 66697, "incumbent": { "name": "Marek Hattas", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "Tím Kraj Nitra", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 40.4, "registered_voters": 66697, "valid_votes": 26534, "results": [ { "name": "Marek Hattas", "party": "Tím Kraj Nitra", "votes": 8175, "pct": 30.8 }, { "name": "Igor Kršiak", "party": "Hlas-SD, SME RODINA, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení, Demokrati Slovenska", "votes": 7220, "pct": 27.2 }, { "name": "Štefan Štefek", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 5299, "pct": 20.0 }, { "name": "Pavol Obertáš", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4640, "pct": 17.5 }, { "name": "Erik Blaško", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 603, "pct": 2.3 }, { "name": "Dalimír Solčanský", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 597, "pct": 2.2 } ], "source": "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9525965/Komunalne-volby-2026---Nitra--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky (cites ŠÚ SR); valid_votes = sum of candidate votes" }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 43.11, "registered_voters": 68698, "valid_votes": 29289, "results": [ { "name": "Marek Hattas", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 12385, "pct": 42.28 }, { "name": "Jozef Dvonč", "party": "SMER-SD, SNS", "votes": 6453, "pct": 22.03 }, { "name": "Štefan Štefek", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4235, "pct": 14.45 }, { "name": "Peter Oremus", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2174, "pct": 7.42 }, { "name": "Ján Greššo", "party": "OĽANO, SaS, ŠANCA, SME RODINA, KDH", "votes": 2154, "pct": 7.35 }, { "name": "Ján Kecskés", "party": "ĽS Pevnosť Slovensko", "votes": 692, "pct": 2.36 }, { "name": "Ľubomír Martinka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 476, "pct": 1.62 }, { "name": "Renáta Kolenčíková", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 473, "pct": 1.61 }, { "name": "Michal Ivan", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 118, "pct": 0.4 }, { "name": "Róbert Sitár", "party": "NEKA (withdrew)", "votes": 83, "pct": 0.28 }, { "name": "Ladislav Németh", "party": "STS", "votes": 46, "pct": 0.15 } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx" } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Infostat", "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-31", "n": 400, "sponsor": "published by Hattas (sponsor not stated)", "results": { "Marek Hattas": 33.0, "Igor Kršiak": 23.1 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.nitrak.sk/clanky/11830/najnovsi-prieskum-v-nitre-priniesol-tesny-suboj-o-primatora-krsiak-ma-pred-hattasom-naskok-len-o-desatinu-bodu", "partisan": true }, { "pollster": "Focus", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-21", "n": 505, "sponsor": "published by Igor Kršiak (sponsor not stated)", "results": { "Igor Kršiak": 35.5, "Marek Hattas": 35.4, "Zuzana Uhríková": 7.6, "Marek Illéš": 6.4 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.nitrak.sk/clanky/11830/najnovsi-prieskum-v-nitre-priniesol-tesny-suboj-o-primatora-krsiak-ma-pred-hattasom-naskok-len-o-desatinu-bodu", "partisan": true }, { "pollster": "AKO", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-24", "n": 400, "sponsor": "TV Nitrička", "results": { "Marek Hattas": 55.2, "Igor Kršiak": 32.5, "Zuzana Uhríková": 6.3, "Marek Illéš": 6.0 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://dennikn.sk/minuta/5615398/", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Marek Hattas": 1.25, "Igor Kršiak": 3.5, "Marek Illéš": 7.5, "Zuzana Uhríková": 88.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Marek Hattas": 1.2, "Igor Kršiak": 3.8, "Marek Illéš": 8.0, "Zuzana Uhríková": 80.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Marek Hattas": 1.29, "Igor Kršiak": 3.1, "Marek Illéš": 7.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.74, "poll_sd": 0.083, "n_polls": 3 }, "notes": "4 candidates, no withdrawals. Structural change vs 2022: Hattas consolidated the opposition parties (PS, KDH, SaS, Demokrati, HS, OKS) behind his regional party; Kršiak lost his 2022 coalition backing (Hlas/Sme rodina) and the government parties field Illéš (Smer/Hlas/SR) and Uhríková (Republika/SNS) separately, splitting the anti-Hattas vote. 2022 Hattas won only 30.8 % with Štefek (20.0) and Obertáš (17.5) not running now. Only one independent poll (AKO) — Hattas +22.7; campaign-released polls: Infostat Hattas +9.9, Focus tie. Bookmakers imply Hattas ~75–80 %. ballot_no for Nitra from topky 'v poradí podľa hlasovacieho lístka'.", "sources": [ "https://spravy.stvr.sk/2026/10/kandidati-na-primatora-nitra-komunalne-volby-2026/", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx ; turnout/registered/valid: https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/vw0vYr2/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-primatora-mesta-nitra-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9525965/Komunalne-volby-2026---Nitra--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky", "https://www.topky.sk/cl/2005799/9525965/Komunalne-volby-2026---Nitra--kandidati-na-primatora--poslanci-a-vysledky (cites ŠÚ SR); valid_votes = sum of candidate votes" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Marek Hattas", "party": "Tím kraj Nitra - združenie kandidátov Nitrianskeho kraja, Progresívne Slovensko, KDH, Sloboda a solidarita, Demokrati, Hnutie Slovensko, Občianska konzervatívna strana", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 50.8, "mean": 50.7, "lo80": 32.0, "hi80": 69.1, "p_win": 0.7717, "p_win_blind": 0.7612, "p_win_market": 0.7436, "fund_share": 45.0, "fund_p_win": 0.6091, "swing": 0.048, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.308 }, { "name": "Igor Kršiak", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 30.7, "mean": 31.9, "lo80": 16.8, "hi80": 48.9, "p_win": 0.2168, "p_win_blind": 0.2361, "p_win_market": 0.1886, "fund_share": 20.3, "fund_p_win": 0.2296, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.272 }, { "name": "Zuzana Uhríková", "party": "Republika, Slovenská národná strana", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 7.9, "mean": 9.0, "lo80": 3.8, "hi80": 15.6, "p_win": 0.0019, "p_win_blind": 0.0014, "p_win_market": 0.0025, "fund_share": 10.6, "fund_p_win": 0.0874, "swing": 0.041, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Marek Illéš", "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Sme rodina", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 7.3, "mean": 8.3, "lo80": 3.4, "hi80": 14.5, "p_win": 0.0096, "p_win_blind": 0.0013, "p_win_market": 0.0661, "fund_share": 9.7, "fund_p_win": 0.0738, "swing": -0.134, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mesto-presov", "name": "Prešov", "office": "primator", "group": "mesto", "voters": 70029, "incumbent": { "name": "František Oľha", "since": 2022, "party_2022": "SaS, PS, SPOLU, DS, ŠANCA, ODS, Dobrá voľba a Umiernení", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 42.66, "registered_voters": 70029, "valid_votes": 29344, "results": [ { "name": "František Oľha", "party": "SaS, Progresívne Slovensko, SPOLU, DS, ŠANCA, ODS - Občianski demokrati Slovenska, DOBRÁ VOĽBA a Umiernení", "votes": 10934, "pct": 37.26, "ballot_no": 11, "elected": true }, { "name": "Pavel Hagyari", "party": "STAROSTOVIA A NEZÁVISLÍ KANDIDÁTI, SME RODINA", "votes": 6853, "pct": 23.35, "ballot_no": 7, "elected": false }, { "name": "Ľuboš Micheľ", "party": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia", "votes": 3419, "pct": 11.65, "ballot_no": 10, "elected": false }, { "name": "Artúr Benes", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3290, "pct": 11.21, "ballot_no": 4, "elected": false }, { "name": "Zuzana Bednárová", "party": "KDH", "votes": 1655, "pct": 5.63, "ballot_no": 2, "elected": false }, { "name": "Ján Andrejko", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1461, "pct": 4.97, "ballot_no": 1, "elected": false }, { "name": "Martin Eštočák", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 546, "pct": 1.86, "ballot_no": 6, "elected": false }, { "name": "Marek Kurta", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 360, "pct": 1.22, "ballot_no": 9, "elected": false }, { "name": "Ján Štovka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 292, "pct": 0.99, "ballot_no": 12, "elected": false }, { "name": "Renáta Bobáková", "party": "Hnutie ONÁS", "votes": 211, "pct": 0.71, "ballot_no": 5, "elected": false }, { "name": "Patrik Benčík", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 210, "pct": 0.71, "ballot_no": 3, "elected": false }, { "name": "Jozef Kubica", "party": "NK/NEKA", "votes": 113, "pct": 0.38, "ballot_no": 8, "elected": false } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "note": "ŠÚ SR definitive results. valid_votes = valid mayoral ballots; pct as published by ŠÚ SR (share of valid ballots). Entries with withdrew=true were marked X (vzdal sa / zrušená kandidatúra) by ŠÚ SR; their votes are included in the published totals." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 43.2, "registered_voters": 72521, "valid_votes": 31060, "results": [ { "name": "Andrea Turčanová", "party": "KDH, OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti (OĽANO), NOVA", "votes": 14205, "pct": 45.73, "ballot_no": 7, "elected": true }, { "name": "Pavel Hagyari", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 8921, "pct": 28.72, "ballot_no": 5, "elected": false }, { "name": "Richard Drutarovský", "party": "SPOLU, Progresívne Slovensko, OKS", "votes": 2648, "pct": 8.52, "ballot_no": 2, "elected": false }, { "name": "Miroslav Benko", "party": "SMER-SD, SNS, MOST - HÍD", "votes": 2560, "pct": 8.24, "ballot_no": 1, "elected": false }, { "name": "František Oľha", "party": "SaS, SME RODINA - Boris Kollár, ŠANCA, DS", "votes": 2360, "pct": 7.59, "ballot_no": 6, "elected": false }, { "name": "Stanislav Grega", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 233, "pct": 0.75, "ballot_no": 4, "elected": false }, { "name": "Igor Dužda", "party": "SRK", "votes": 133, "pct": 0.42, "ballot_no": 3, "elected": false } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "note": "ŠÚ SR definitive results. valid_votes = valid mayoral ballots; pct as published by ŠÚ SR (share of valid ballots). Entries with withdrew=true were marked X (vzdal sa / zrušená kandidatúra) by ŠÚ SR; their votes are included in the published totals." } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "NMS Market Research (CAPI)", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-16", "n": 510, "sponsor": "commissioned by candidate František Oľha (internal poll released by his campaign; paid article)", "results": { "František Oľha": 46.0, "Pavel Hagyari": 30.0, "Rastislav Mochnacký": 11.0, "Artúr Benes": 5.0, "Svetlana Pavlovičová": 5.0, "Martin Eštočák": 4.0 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.presovak.sk/clanky/15886/novy-prieskum-v-presove-poradie-favoritov-na-primatora-sa-meni", "partisan": true } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "František Oľha": 1.08, "Rastislav Mochnacký": 5.0, "Pavel Hagyari": 8.0, "Svetlana Pavlovičová": 40.0, "Martin Eštočák": 60.0, "Artúr Benes": 100.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-presova-2026/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "František Oľha": 1.05, "Rastislav Mochnacký": 7.0, "Pavel Hagyari": 8.0, "Martin Eštočák": 15.0, "Svetlana Pavlovičová": 25.0, "Artúr Benes": 40.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "František Oľha": 1.1, "Rastislav Mochnacký": 5.5, "Pavel Hagyari": 5.0, "Svetlana Pavlovičová": 12.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-krajske-mesta/" }, { "bookmaker": "Polymarket (prediction market, implied probability %, not decimal odds)", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "František Oľha": 84.5, "Rastislav Mochnacký": 11.7, "Pavel Hagyari": 3.3 }, "source": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/presov-mayoral-election-winner-2026/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.685, "poll_sd": 0.095, "n_polls": 1 }, "notes": "Coalition map 2026: governing Smer+SNS+Sme rodina+Bratia Slovenska back Pavlovičová; Hlas has NO mayoral candidate in Prešov (Hlas runs own council list; Hlas's Micheľ got 11.65 % in 2022) and, per Denník N (15.10.), Hlas and Republika endorsed no mayoral candidate - where Hlas voters go is a key unknown. Opposition split: PS+Demokrati+DS back incumbent Oľha; KDH+SaS+Hnutie Slovensko+KÚ+Za ľudí+Nova back Mochnacký (in 2022 SaS backed Oľha and KDH ran Bednárová 5.63 %). Hagyari (2nd in 2014/2018/2022) runs as NEKA this time (2022 STANK+Sme rodina). Markets: all bookmakers make Oľha a heavy favourite (1.08-1.10); Mochnacký has overtaken Hagyari as 2nd favourite at Tipsport by 20.10 and on Polymarket. Polls: only a sponsor-released NMS poll (12-16 Oct, n=510: Oľha 46, Hagyari 30, Mochnacký 11) and an older Policy Insights/Focus figure (Oľha ~24, Hagyari ~17, Mochnacký ~1, undecided >27) - both put Hagyari, not Mochnacký, 2nd, contradicting the late market move to Mochnacký. Hagyari is running for the 6th time (2nd in last three). Turnout 2022 42.66 %, 2018 43.2 %. Relative majority, one round: fragmented field (6) means winner can win with ~35 %.", "sources": [ "https://oznamypresov.sk/download/10648", "https://sita.sk/presov-pozna-kandidatov-na-primatora-aj-zupana-o-kreslo-v-krajskom-zastupitelstve-zabojuje-476-ludi/", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/PQR3sHF/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-primatora-mesta-presov-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/W8n9gmb/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-primatorov-krajskych-miest-vo-volbach-2026/" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "František Oľha", "party": "Progresívne Slovensko, Demokrati, Demokratická strana - občianski demokrati Slovenska", "inc": true, "bloc": "opp", "share": 40.0, "mean": 40.7, "lo80": 23.1, "hi80": 59.4, "p_win": 0.7307, "p_win_blind": 0.7313, "p_win_market": 0.6917, "fund_share": 28.2, "fund_p_win": 0.4673, "swing": 0.139, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.3726 }, { "name": "Pavel Hagyari", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 23.6, "mean": 25.2, "lo80": 12.1, "hi80": 40.7, "p_win": 0.2093, "p_win_blind": 0.2411, "p_win_market": 0.1711, "fund_share": 11.9, "fund_p_win": 0.1447, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.2335 }, { "name": "Rastislav Mochnacký", "party": "KDH, Hnutie Slovensko, SaS, Konzervatívci - kresťanská únia, Za ľudí, Nova", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 10.7, "mean": 12.0, "lo80": 5.0, "hi80": 20.6, "p_win": 0.0496, "p_win_blind": 0.0193, "p_win_market": 0.1159, "fund_share": 9.7, "fund_p_win": 0.105, "swing": -0.001, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Artúr Benes", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 7.0, "mean": 8.0, "lo80": 3.3, "hi80": 13.9, "p_win": 0.002, "p_win_blind": 0.0032, "p_win_market": 0.0012, "fund_share": 10.1, "fund_p_win": 0.1133, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.1121 }, { "name": "Svetlana Pavlovičová", "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Slovenská národná strana, Sme rodina, Bratia Slovenska", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 6.3, "mean": 7.3, "lo80": 2.8, "hi80": 13.1, "p_win": 0.0048, "p_win_blind": 0.0029, "p_win_market": 0.0077, "fund_share": 8.3, "fund_p_win": 0.082, "swing": -0.065, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Martin Eštočák", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 5.9, "mean": 6.8, "lo80": 2.7, "hi80": 12.1, "p_win": 0.0036, "p_win_blind": 0.0022, "p_win_market": 0.0056, "fund_share": 8.9, "fund_p_win": 0.0877, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0186 } ] }, { "id": "mesto-trnava", "name": "Trnava", "office": "primator", "group": "mesto", "voters": 52921, "incumbent": { "name": "Peter Bročka", "since": 2014, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": false }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 41.87, "registered_voters": 52921, "valid_votes": 21621, "results": [ { "name": "Peter Bročka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 9665, "pct": 44.7, "ballot_no": 3, "elected": true }, { "name": "Branislav Baroš", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 7269, "pct": 33.62, "ballot_no": 1, "elected": false }, { "name": "Matej Lančarič", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2609, "pct": 12.06, "ballot_no": 5, "elected": false }, { "name": "Marián Galbavý", "party": "SaS, SME RODINA, ODS - Občianski demokrati Slovenska, ŠANCA", "votes": 1741, "pct": 8.05, "ballot_no": 4, "elected": false }, { "name": "Zdenko Rosina", "party": "NK/NEKA", "votes": 246, "pct": 1.13, "ballot_no": 6, "elected": false }, { "name": "Zuzana Bošnáková", "party": "KDH, ZA ĽUDÍ, Kresťanská únia", "votes": 91, "pct": 0.42, "ballot_no": 2, "elected": false, "withdrew": true } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "note": "ŠÚ SR definitive results. valid_votes = valid mayoral ballots; pct as published by ŠÚ SR (share of valid ballots). Entries with withdrew=true were marked X (vzdal sa / zrušená kandidatúra) by ŠÚ SR; their votes are included in the published totals." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 37.74, "registered_voters": 54375, "valid_votes": 20265, "results": [ { "name": "Peter Bročka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 12731, "pct": 62.82, "ballot_no": 1, "elected": true }, { "name": "Rastislav Mráz", "party": "KDH, SZS, SDKÚ-DS", "votes": 3349, "pct": 16.52, "ballot_no": 3, "elected": false }, { "name": "Marián Galbavý", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 1560, "pct": 7.69, "ballot_no": 2, "elected": false }, { "name": "Igor Válek", "party": "SMER-SD, SNS", "votes": 1170, "pct": 5.77, "ballot_no": 7, "elected": false }, { "name": "Peter Tomeček", "party": "NÁRODNÁ KOALÍCIA", "votes": 839, "pct": 4.14, "ballot_no": 6, "elected": false }, { "name": "Vanesa Šteinerová", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 357, "pct": 1.76, "ballot_no": 5, "elected": false }, { "name": "Peter Ondrejka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 246, "pct": 1.21, "ballot_no": 4, "elected": false }, { "name": "Stanislav Žigmund", "party": "SRK", "votes": 13, "pct": 0.06, "ballot_no": 8, "elected": false, "withdrew": true } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "note": "ŠÚ SR definitive results. valid_votes = valid mayoral ballots; pct as published by ŠÚ SR (share of valid ballots). Entries with withdrew=true were marked X (vzdal sa / zrušená kandidatúra) by ŠÚ SR; their votes are included in the published totals." } }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Katedra sociológie Trnavskej univerzity (student fieldwork)", "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-08", "n": 1111, "sponsor": "published by Mestská televízia Trnava", "results": { "Branislav Baroš": 32.4, "Eva Nemčovská": 31.9, "Ľubica Horváthová": 12.4, "Andrea Čajková": 8.8, "Martin Pullmann": 7.6, "Jozef Obselka": 6.9 }, "others_pct": null, "source": "https://www.finreport.sk/agenturne-spravy/v-trnave-sa-vo-volbach-primatora-rozhodne-medzi-barosom-a-nemcovskou-suboj-bude-podla-vysledkov-prieskumu-tesny/", "partisan": false } ], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Eva Nemčovská": 1.45, "Branislav Baroš": 2.45, "Martin Pullmann": 10.0, "Andrea Čajková": 18.0, "Jozef Obselka": 50.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-trnavy-2026/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Eva Nemčovská": 1.45, "Branislav Baroš": 2.5, "Martin Pullmann": 10.0, "Andrea Čajková": 20.0, "Jozef Obselka": 50.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Eva Nemčovská": 1.45, "Branislav Baroš": 2.2, "Martin Pullmann": 8.0, "Andrea Čajková": 15.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-krajske-mesta/" } ], "poll_info": { "weight": 0.792, "poll_sd": 0.072, "n_polls": 1 }, "notes": "Open seat (Bročka retiring after 3 terms; won 2022 with 44.7 % vs Baroš 33.62 %). Two-horse race Baroš (Trnava pre každého + KDH) vs. vice-mayor Nemčovská (NEKA, backed by PS and after 9.10 by Demokrati). Poll pre-withdrawal: 32.4 vs 31.9; if Horváthová's 12.4 % transfers mostly to Nemčovská she leads clearly - bookmakers price her favourite (1.45-1.65) vs Baroš (1.90-2.45). Pullmann carries Smer+Hlas+SNS+Republika label in a liberal-leaning city (2018 Smer+SNS candidate Válek got 5.77 %). Horváthová stays on ballot - votes for her invalid. Whether Bročka endorsed anyone: not found (SME: 'his shadow felt over every candidate'). Turnout 2022 41.87 %, 2018 37.74 %.", "sources": [ "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/W8n9gmb/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-primatorov-krajskych-miest-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://www.trnava.sk/content/files/Volby/komunlne_volby_2026/kandidati_vzdanie_sa_kandidatury.pdf", "https://www.trnava.sk/content/files/Volby/komunlne_volby_2026/komunalne_volby2026_zoznam-kandidatov_prim.pdf", "https://www.trnavskyhlas.sk/c/42611-kto-kandiduje-vo-volbach-trnave-prinasame-kompletny-zoznam-uchadzacov-o-hlasy/" ], "withdrawn": [ { "name": "Ľubica Horváthová", "transfer_to": "Eva Nemčovská" } ], "candidates": [ { "name": "Eva Nemčovská", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 35.7, "mean": 36.5, "lo80": 22.4, "hi80": 51.6, "p_win": 0.5964, "p_win_blind": 0.5645, "p_win_market": 0.6084, "fund_share": 17.5, "fund_p_win": 0.2361, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Branislav Baroš", "party": "Trnava pre každého, KDH - kresťanskodemokratické hnutie", "inc": false, "bloc": "opp", "share": 31.8, "mean": 32.7, "lo80": 19.1, "hi80": 47.7, "p_win": 0.3734, "p_win_blind": 0.4233, "p_win_market": 0.3146, "fund_share": 19.7, "fund_p_win": 0.2793, "swing": 0.02, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.3362 }, { "name": "Andrea Čajková", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 10.8, "mean": 11.7, "lo80": 6.0, "hi80": 18.8, "p_win": 0.0126, "p_win_blind": 0.007, "p_win_market": 0.0218, "fund_share": 13.6, "fund_p_win": 0.16, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Martin Pullmann", "party": "Smer - sociálna demokracia, Hlas - sociálna demokracia, Slovenská národná strana, Republika", "inc": false, "bloc": "gov", "share": 9.6, "mean": 10.5, "lo80": 5.1, "hi80": 17.1, "p_win": 0.0151, "p_win_blind": 0.0042, "p_win_market": 0.0511, "fund_share": 13.1, "fund_p_win": 0.1583, "swing": -0.03, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Jozef Obselka", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 7.7, "mean": 8.5, "lo80": 4.2, "hi80": 13.8, "p_win": 0.0025, "p_win_blind": 0.001, "p_win_market": 0.0061, "fund_share": 13.8, "fund_p_win": 0.1662, "swing": 0.0, "adj": -0.5, "adj_reason": "Bez verejného profilu (vedúci spoločnosti, prvá kandidatúra, žiadna funkcia ani strana).", "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mesto-trencin", "name": "Trenčín", "office": "primator", "group": "mesto", "voters": 46201, "incumbent": { "name": "Richard Rybníček", "since": 2010, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": false }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 37, "registered_voters": 46201, "valid_votes": 16339, "results": [ { "name": "Richard Rybníček", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 11918, "pct": 72.94, "ballot_no": 2, "elected": true }, { "name": "Miloš Mičega", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 4421, "pct": 27.05, "ballot_no": 1, "elected": false } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "note": "ŠÚ SR definitive results. valid_votes = valid mayoral ballots; pct as published by ŠÚ SR (share of valid ballots). Entries with withdrew=true were marked X (vzdal sa / zrušená kandidatúra) by ŠÚ SR; their votes are included in the published totals." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 42.03, "registered_voters": 46803, "valid_votes": 19135, "results": [ { "name": "Richard Rybníček", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 13855, "pct": 72.4, "ballot_no": 3, "elected": true }, { "name": "Miloš Mičega", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 5228, "pct": 27.32, "ballot_no": 2, "elected": false }, { "name": "Ľubomír Žabár", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 36, "pct": 0.18, "ballot_no": 4, "elected": false, "withdrew": true }, { "name": "Danica Birošová", "party": "DOMA DOBRE", "votes": 16, "pct": 0.08, "ballot_no": 1, "elected": false, "withdrew": true } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "note": "ŠÚ SR definitive results. valid_votes = valid mayoral ballots; pct as published by ŠÚ SR (share of valid ballots). Entries with withdrew=true were marked X (vzdal sa / zrušená kandidatúra) by ŠÚ SR; their votes are included in the published totals." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Ján Forgáč": 1.1, "Miloš Mičega": 6.0, "Danica Birošová": 20.0, "Michal Bratranec": 30.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-trencina-2026/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Ján Forgáč": 1.08, "Miloš Mičega": 7.0, "Danica Birošová": 18.0, "Michal Bratranec": 30.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Ján Forgáč": 1.13, "Miloš Mičega": 4.5, "Danica Birošová": 17.0, "Michal Bratranec": 20.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-krajske-mesta/" } ], "poll_info": null, "notes": "Open seat after 16 years of Rybníček. Effectively Forgáč (continuity, Rybníček-endorsed) vs Mičega (two-time runner-up with ~27 %, the anti-Rybníček pole). No party formally nominates any mayoral candidate; no Smer/Hlas mayoral candidate, so where government-leaning voters go (likely Mičega?) is unknown - no source found on party endorsements. Birošová (withdrew in favour of Mičega in 2018 and 2022) stays in this time, splitting the opposition vote. No public poll found. Bookmakers: Forgáč 1.10-1.19, Mičega 4.0-6.0. Turnout 2022 37.0 %, 2018 42.03 %. Mičega's 27 % ceiling was vs. a popular incumbent; open-seat dynamics are different.", "sources": [ "https://my.sme.sk/trencin/c/kandidati-na-primatora-mesta-trencin-2026-kompletny-zoznam-a-profily-komunalne-volby-2026", "https://trencin.sk/aktuality/pozname-mena-kandidatov-a-kandidatok-na-primatorsky-post-a-do-mestskeho-zastupitelstva/", "https://trencin.sk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Zoznam-zaregistrovanych-kandidatov-pre-volby-primatora-mesta-Trencin-1.pdf", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Ján Forgáč", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 33.5, "mean": 36.6, "lo80": 10.6, "hi80": 67.9, "p_win": 0.7272, "p_win_blind": 0.4482, "p_win_market": 0.8746, "fund_share": 19.9, "fund_p_win": 0.2399, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.6, "adj_reason": "Prvý viceprimátor od 2014, ktorého podporuje odchádzajúci primátor Rybníček (16 rokov vo funkcii, 2022 jasne zvolený). Model pozná len to, že je miestny funkcionár.", "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Miloš Mičega", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 24.1, "mean": 28.4, "lo80": 6.9, "hi80": 57.1, "p_win": 0.1788, "p_win_blind": 0.2956, "p_win_market": 0.0946, "fund_share": 26.4, "fund_p_win": 0.348, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.2705 }, { "name": "Danica Birošová", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 18.1, "mean": 22.8, "lo80": 4.9, "hi80": 48.5, "p_win": 0.0669, "p_win_blind": 0.1991, "p_win_market": 0.0189, "fund_share": 19.9, "fund_p_win": 0.2394, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Michal Bratranec", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 8.4, "mean": 12.2, "lo80": 2.1, "hi80": 27.8, "p_win": 0.0271, "p_win_blind": 0.0571, "p_win_market": 0.0118, "fund_share": 15.9, "fund_p_win": 0.1727, "swing": 0.0, "adj": -0.5, "adj_reason": "Bez verejného profilu (šofér, 20 rokov v zahraničí, prvá kandidatúra).", "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] }, { "id": "mesto-zilina", "name": "Žilina", "office": "primator", "group": "mesto", "voters": 69091, "incumbent": { "name": "Peter Fiabáne", "since": 2018, "party_2022": "NEKA", "running_2026": true }, "history": { "2022": { "turnout_pct": 38.16, "registered_voters": 69091, "valid_votes": 25595, "results": [ { "name": "Peter Fiabáne", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 11654, "pct": 45.53, "ballot_no": 4, "elected": true }, { "name": "Patrik Groma", "party": "Hlas - sociálna demokracia, KDH", "votes": 4866, "pct": 19.01, "ballot_no": 5, "elected": false }, { "name": "Peter Cibulka", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3970, "pct": 15.51, "ballot_no": 3, "elected": false }, { "name": "Pavol Slota", "party": "DOMOV-NS", "votes": 2723, "pct": 10.63, "ballot_no": 7, "elected": false }, { "name": "Ján Rzeszoto", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 981, "pct": 3.83, "ballot_no": 6, "elected": false }, { "name": "Silvia Bakkery", "party": "REPUBLIKA", "votes": 668, "pct": 2.6, "ballot_no": 1, "elected": false }, { "name": "Štefan Zelník", "party": "ŽIVOT", "votes": 276, "pct": 1.07, "ballot_no": 8, "elected": false, "withdrew": true }, { "name": "Daniela Zemanová", "party": "Hnutie ONÁS", "votes": 273, "pct": 1.06, "ballot_no": 9, "elected": false }, { "name": "Timotej Bernhauser", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 184, "pct": 0.71, "ballot_no": 2, "elected": false } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "note": "ŠÚ SR definitive results. valid_votes = valid mayoral ballots; pct as published by ŠÚ SR (share of valid ballots). Entries with withdrew=true were marked X (vzdal sa / zrušená kandidatúra) by ŠÚ SR; their votes are included in the published totals." }, "2018": { "turnout_pct": 41.3, "registered_voters": 70771, "valid_votes": 28872, "results": [ { "name": "Peter Fiabáne", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 13876, "pct": 48.06, "ballot_no": 1, "elected": true }, { "name": "Patrik Groma", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 7142, "pct": 24.73, "ballot_no": 2, "elected": false }, { "name": "Martin Kapitulík", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 3754, "pct": 13, "ballot_no": 6, "elected": false }, { "name": "Ľudmila Chodelková", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 2548, "pct": 8.82, "ballot_no": 4, "elected": false }, { "name": "Ján Púček", "party": "ĽS Naše Slovensko", "votes": 917, "pct": 3.17, "ballot_no": 7, "elected": false }, { "name": "Tibor Hanuliak", "party": "SNS", "votes": 325, "pct": 1.12, "ballot_no": 3, "elected": false }, { "name": "Marian Janušek", "party": "NEKA", "votes": 310, "pct": 1.07, "ballot_no": 5, "elected": false } ], "source": "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "note": "ŠÚ SR definitive results. valid_votes = valid mayoral ballots; pct as published by ŠÚ SR (share of valid ballots). Entries with withdrew=true were marked X (vzdal sa / zrušená kandidatúra) by ŠÚ SR; their votes are included in the published totals." } }, "polls": [], "odds": [ { "bookmaker": "Tipsport", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Peter Fiabáne": 1.2, "Rastislav Johanes": 4.0, "Peter Cibulka": 15.0, "Michal Milo": 40.0, "Ivan Magát": 45.0, "Miroslav Sokol": 45.0, "Bohumil Kostolný": 50.0, "Anton Kozlík": 50.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "Fortuna", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Peter Fiabáne": 1.2, "Rastislav Johanes": 4.0, "Peter Cibulka": 15.0, "Anton Kozlík": 40.0, "Miroslav Sokol": 50.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kurzy-na-volby/" }, { "bookmaker": "DOXXbet", "date": "2026-10-20", "odds": { "Peter Fiabáne": 1.18, "Rastislav Johanes": 4.0, "Peter Cibulka": 10.0, "Miroslav Sokol": 30.0, "Anton Kozlík": 40.0 }, "source": "https://stavkynavolby.sk/informacie/kandidati-na-primatora-krajske-mesta/" } ], "poll_info": null, "notes": "Incumbent Fiabáne (48.06 % 2018, 45.53 % 2022) faces fragmented field of 7. Main challengers: Johanes (doctor, ŽSK councillor) and Cibulka (3rd in 2022 with 15.51 %). In 2022 the 2nd place Groma (Hlas+KDH, 19.01 %) - this time KDH backs Fiabáne and Hlas/Smer/SNS/Domov run joint council lists but NO mayoral candidate; no source found on whether they informally back Johanes. Republika (Milo) is the only party-nominated challenger. Odds drifted from Fiabáne 1.04 / Johanes 7.0 (12.8.) to 1.18-1.20 / 3.8-4.0 (mid-Oct) - tightening but Fiabáne clear favourite. No scientific poll found (komunalne-volby.sk runs a self-selected web vote - not usable). Turnout 2022 38.16 %, 2018 41.3 %.", "sources": [ "https://hnonline.sk/volby-2026/komunalne-volby-2026/96307650-komunalne-volby-2026-zilina-zoznam-kandidatov-primator-a-poslanci", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab05.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2018/files/xlsx/OSO_2018_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab05d.xlsx (candidates) + https://volby.statistics.sk/oso/oso2022/files/xlsx/OSO2022_SK_tab02bd.xlsx (turnout/registered)", "https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/uBDJaIF/kompletny-zoznam-kandidatov-na-primatora-mesta-zilina-vo-volbach-2026/", "https://zilina.sk/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Zoznam-zaregistrovanych-kandidatov-pre-volby-primatora-mesta-Zilina.pdf" ], "withdrawn": [], "candidates": [ { "name": "Peter Fiabáne", "party": "NEKA", "inc": true, "bloc": null, "share": 30.1, "mean": 33.2, "lo80": 9.9, "hi80": 61.8, "p_win": 0.7134, "p_win_blind": 0.5517, "p_win_market": 0.7899, "fund_share": 26.6, "fund_p_win": 0.5046, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.4553 }, { "name": "Peter Cibulka", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 10.2, "mean": 14.0, "lo80": 2.8, "hi80": 30.5, "p_win": 0.0684, "p_win_blind": 0.1262, "p_win_market": 0.0329, "fund_share": 8.9, "fund_p_win": 0.1074, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.1551 }, { "name": "Anton Kozlík", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 8.9, "mean": 12.4, "lo80": 2.4, "hi80": 27.4, "p_win": 0.0278, "p_win_blind": 0.1003, "p_win_market": 0.0067, "fund_share": 7.9, "fund_p_win": 0.0864, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Rastislav Johanes", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 8.8, "mean": 12.4, "lo80": 2.4, "hi80": 27.4, "p_win": 0.1316, "p_win_blind": 0.1002, "p_win_market": 0.157, "fund_share": 7.8, "fund_p_win": 0.0873, "swing": 0.0, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": true, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Michal Milo", "party": "Republika", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 6.1, "mean": 8.8, "lo80": 1.6, "hi80": 19.5, "p_win": 0.0201, "p_win_blind": 0.0495, "p_win_market": 0.0073, "fund_share": 5.3, "fund_p_win": 0.0425, "swing": 0.118, "adj": 0.0, "adj_reason": null, "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Bohumil Kostolný", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 4.2, "mean": 6.4, "lo80": 1.1, "hi80": 14.4, "p_win": 0.0117, "p_win_blind": 0.0228, "p_win_market": 0.0055, "fund_share": 6.1, "fund_p_win": 0.0572, "swing": 0.0, "adj": -0.5, "adj_reason": "Bez verejného profilu (predčasný dôchodca, bez komunálnej histórie).", "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Ivan Magát", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 4.2, "mean": 6.4, "lo80": 1.1, "hi80": 14.5, "p_win": 0.0131, "p_win_blind": 0.0248, "p_win_market": 0.0063, "fund_share": 6.2, "fund_p_win": 0.0587, "swing": 0.0, "adj": -0.5, "adj_reason": "Bez verejného profilu (prvá kandidatúra, bez funkcie).", "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 }, { "name": "Miroslav Sokol", "party": "NEKA", "inc": false, "bloc": null, "share": 4.2, "mean": 6.4, "lo80": 1.1, "hi80": 14.4, "p_win": 0.0139, "p_win_blind": 0.0244, "p_win_market": 0.0072, "fund_share": 6.2, "fund_p_win": 0.0559, "swing": 0.0, "adj": -0.5, "adj_reason": "Bez verejného profilu (prvá kandidatúra, bez funkcie).", "exec_office": false, "local_official": false, "prev_share": 0.0 } ] } ] }